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Fate of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes

Having analyzed current situation in the AALS fisheries development, we consider it necessary to discuss what could happen with the fish industry in future. Based on the examination of the literature associated with fish farming on these lakes, we will demonstrate several possible future trends.
According to the FAO forecasts (2009), there are two possible ways of fisheries development in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes in future. On the one hand, in case of increase of lake’s level fish farms and approached roads will be flooded. By reason of farmers’ movements from one place to another, cost price of produced fish will go up. On the other hand, if a decrease of lake level takes place, mineralization will increase and natural reproduction of fish resources will slow down. There will be a need to replenish fish resources by purchase of breeding stock (Thorpe and van Anrooy 2009). Farmers dealing with growing of breeding stock will surely raise the price for their production. Increase of cost price will again cause concealment of produced fish by farmers. This is a situation of catch-22, i.e. one unsolved problem generates another. As a result, farmers will suffer from losses as well as fish fauna of the AALS will be eliminated.
The literature analyzed demonstrated that in case of losing the socio-economic and ecological functions of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes, Uzbekistan will face serious and long-terms difficulties such as:

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  Cheap fish production totaling today 5-10 thousand tons will not be available for the population;
  
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  CEU eTD Collection
  Fish growing in the pond farms will require additional expenses; for instance, to produce 5250 tons of fish more than 28 000 tons of food stuff to the value of 3 million dollars will be needed;
  
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  Local population engaged to the fish industry will lose jobs;
  
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  Taking into account constant decrease of water level in these lakes, major part of lake’s coast line will turn into small shallow bays followed by formation of solonchaks;
  
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  Because lake’s bottom is difficult to recultivate, the respective area will not be effectively used for agricultural purposes for a long time;
  
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  Annual fish growing in the pond farms will require a huge amount of additional water supply (Kurbanov 2008).
  

To prevent all possible difficulties given above we should understand the important functions of these lakes from the economic perspective as well as the population’s needs and to analyze future benefits from fisheries development.
According to Shohimardonov (2008), the government investing 1 uzbek sum in the fish industry of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will gain 8,5 uzbek sum of net profit. In case of growing 5250 tons of fish, savings on the feeding stuff needed for breeding stock propagation will make up 21,7 thousand tons priced at more than 3 billion uzbek sum. Annual savings on the fishfood will amount to 2,5 million dollars. Total revenue annually received from savings on feeding stuff for 5250 tons of fish, will compose 8,5 billion uzbek sum. If more fish is grown in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes, savings in water required for growing fish in pond farms will amount to 157 million m³.
If mineralization increases up to 10 g\l and higher, natural growth of fish supply will be actually ceased. Consequently, need for artificial replenishment of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes by young commercially produced fish growing in the pond farms will take place. To get 5250 tons of annual fish production, it will be necessary to grow and stock 35 million commercially produced fish units to these lakes. Difference in costs of fish growing in the pond farm and the lakes has made up 525 uzbek sum, i.e. 1 kg of fish grown in pond farm is 525 uzbek sum in comparison with 1 kg grown in the lakes (Shohimardonov 2008).

CEU eTD Collection
To sum up, comparative estimates demonstrate that breeding commercial fish in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes is much more economically feasible than breeding in pond fish farms. Earned profit from raised fish in the lakes is more than twice higher versus the same amount of fish produced in the pond fish farms. Taking into consideration that selling price of pond fish is 50% higher than of fish grown in the lakes, profit earned from fish reared in the lakes will increase even more (Thorpe and van Anrooy 2009).

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