Design of highway pavement earthquake damage prediction method considering horizontal earthquake force

Prospect
Complex geological conditions, vehicle load, 
soil disturbance and human factors will affect the 
observation results. Thus, the authenticity and rep-
resentativeness of geological data and measured 
settlement data of highway surface earthquake will 
be also affected, and the accuracy of the prediction 
of road surface seismic damage will fluctuate with 
this. Meanwhile, the selection of prediction model 
also plays a key role in the prediction of highway 
pavement earthquake damage. According to the 
current research situation, the main problems to be 
solved are:
1) The prediction effect of power polynomials in 
practical engineering has been proved to some 
extent, however, its theory needs further argu-
mentation and analysis. In this prediction, the 
settlement is simulated and predicted due to the 
small amount of simulation data. 
2) There are many factors that are difficult to quantify 
in the earthquake damage prediction of express-
way pavement and various influencing factors. 
When analyzing the influence factors, more atten-
tion should be PAID to the qualitative analysis, 
that is, the focus is the subgrade surface settle-
ment and layered settlement. The influence of 
horizontal displacement and pore water pressure 
is not considered in this study, so it needs to be 
studied in the later stage effect of these factors 
on settlement.
Fig. 6. Accuracy of comparison methods.
1
2
3
4
5
Number of experiments
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Paper method
Comparison method 1
80
Comparison method 2
90
100
Prediction accuracy of different methods \%
Comparison method 3

---

J. Peng
92