Doi: 10. 37200/ijpr/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020
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KURBANOV R.B. Analysis of Financial Performance of Private Banks in Uzbekistan1
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International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3713 Abstract--- This paper focuses on the financial performance of private banks in Uzbekistan. The data were obtained from the analysis of the financial statements of the financial sector issued by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. It covers the activities of 6 existing private banks in the Republic of Uzbekistan. To solve the problem, we used the Regression analysis and correlation method. While the volume of bank assets, asset management ratio and operational efficiency are positively correlated with ROA, the volume of bank assets, asset management and operational efficiency are also positively correlated with interest income. Keywords--- Private Bank, Financial Performance, Bank Specific Factors, Uzbekistan, ROA. I. I NTRODUCTION The financial sphere in the economy plаys an important role in its economic development and prosperity of the country. Banking industry serves аs the bаckbone of the financial sector that accumulates saving from surplus economic units in the form of deposits and provides it to deficit economic units in the form of advances. Banking industry provides support to economy and industries in specific in the time of recessions and economic crisis. But if bаnks are at the center of an economic downturn, or if banks are the cause of a financial crisis like the 2007-2009 financial crisis, this makes the situation worse for economic recovery. Therefore, it is very important to carefully monitor the activities of banks and their compliance with regulatory requirements. The main aim of the reforms in the country's bаnking and financial system is to strengthen the resource base of commercial banks and increase the confidence of business entities and the public in the banking system. The ongoing reforms have a positive impact on the quality and resource base of the banking system (Kurbanov R., 2020).
Thebаnkinginstitution is indispensable in modern society. It plays a vital role in the economic development of a country and forms money marketing in advanced country. In a stable economic system, banking activities hold remarkable role by enhancing financial resources for industrial activities which intern generate employment opportunities and overall development of the country. The financial performance of banks guides to analyses the outcomes of a firm’s policies, performance, efficiency and effectiveness in monetary terms. These results reflect in the firms return on investment, return on assets and profit earning (Prakash P. 2017). Financial institutions plаy a dynamicrole in theallocationof economicresourcesofcountries. They regularly transfer funds from depositors to investors, which is effective when they receive sufficient income to cover operating costs. Financial institutions must capitalize on sustainable intermediation functions (Abdu Mohammed Assfaw 2018).
Analysis of Financial Performance of Private Banks in Uzbekistan
Kurbanov Rufat Bakhtiyarovich
International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3714 From the first years of independence, our government paid great attention to the development of the banking system, since the banking sector is considered as an important aspect of the country's financial stability. In general, for the banking sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the last decade has been years of rapid growth and expansion of the provision of banking services to the population and enterprises (Z. Umarov 2017). Currently, banks play an important role in the economy, in particular, in the financial systems of most countries of the world. Most of the funds go through banks, which makes banks one of the most important financial institutions. This inevitable role of banks in the economy and their release require special forms of regulation and supervision, as well as studies of their activities. Profitability is one of the most common indicators of banks (M. Zakhirov 2017). The financial sector achieves economic growth and industrialization through the proper allocation of funds, a qualified financial system, investor relations and optimal use of resources (Raza, 2011). In this regard, the banking sector plays a big role in any economy. The important role of the banking sector is reflected in the distribution of funds between sectors that contribute to economic and financial growth and stability. A well-organized banking sector can overcome the big financial crisis in the economy and create the necessary platforms for strengthening the country's economic system (Aburime, 2009). Over the years of independence, the banking sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan has undergone significant changes. On the eve of independence and in the early years, the banking system also had serious problems. In particular, negative changes in macroeconomic indicators, an artificial decrease in inflation, an excessive increase in cash in circulation, as well as the lack of technologies and a payment system for banking operations, especially the absence of new highly qualified managers and specialists (F. Mullajonov, 2011). However, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan took the initiative by introducing laws “The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan” and “Banks and Banking Activities”. In addition, as a result of the adoption of the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan dated April 24, 1997 “On measures to promote the creation of private commercial banks”, the private banking sector in the country was stimulated. As a result of privatization, local and foreign investors were involved in the creation of the private banking sector and financial institutions. On November 22, 2018, a videoconference under the chairmanship of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev criticized that the authorized capital of commercial banks was increased mainly at the expense of the state, and almost no funds we resent to the private sector. In his Address to the Oliy Majlis, the President raised this issue, noting that the state’s share in the capital of banks is 83%, which will negatively affect the quality of banking services and prevent healthy competition. (Sh. Mirziyoyev, 2018). So far, the government has used Keynesian “medicines” to strengthen the banking system, mainly advocating government intervention in the economy. But due to the excess of such rehabilitation practice, some commercial banks somehow depended on the "doses" that emanate from Keynesian "medicine" for their survival. One of the main goals of reforms in the banking system in recent years is to increase the efficiency of commercial banks, and to achieve this goal, the government focuses on reducing government intervention and increasing its share in the banking market (T. Ishmetov, 2018). Currently, the banking sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan has 853 branches and 1,093 banking services centers of 30 banks with total assets in the amount of 226,005 billion soums (in soums of the Republic of Uzbekistan);
International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3715 including 5 state-owned banks, 14 joint-stock commercial banks, 6 private banks, 5 joint banks. Nowadays, about 10 percent of the bank’s assets are owned by private sector banks (CBU, 2020). The purpose of this study is to analyze the financial data of private banks of the Republic of Uzbekistan for 2013-2019. In addition, it is necessary to determine the relationship between the volume of banking assets, operational efficiency, asset management, return on assets, interest income and discuss their impact on banking. II. L ITERATURE R EVIEW Kapraru and Ignatov (2014) tried to evaluate the main factors determining the profitability of banks in five separate countries of Central and Eastern Europe for the period from 2004 to 2011. They used return on equity (ROE) as a measure of profitability of banks, calculated as the ratio of net profit to total capital; the return on assets (ROA) calculated as a ratio of the net profit to the total bank assets and net interest margin (NIM) computed as a ratio of the difference between interest income and interest expense to the total assets of the bank. hey also examined three determining factors of profitability of banks: bank-specific factors (bank size, financial structure, accepted credit risk, liquidity risk, business structure, structure of income and capital expenditures); industry specifics (market concentration, financial intermediation, etc.) and macroeconomic elements (for example, economic growth and inflation).The results showed that management efficiency and growth in capital adequacy affect the profitability of banks for all performance indicators, while credit risk and inflation determine only ROA and ROE. The higher the ability of banks to raise funds, the more banks have the ability to channel funds in the form of loans. This means that the bank is more likely to make a profit / return. In this study, the profitability of banks will be measured by using return on assets (ROA). According to (Tandelilin, 2010), ROA illustrates the extent to which the ability of company-owned assets can be profitable. ROA is important for banks because it is used to measure a company's performance in generating profits from the use of owned assets. The higher the ROА, the higher the profit level achieved, the better the state of the bank and its position, if we consider it in terms of the use of assets (Dendawijaya, 2009). Financial reporting is the activity that provides relevant information for making important business decisions. The role of financial reporting in banks is critical to the effectiveness of banking operations. The data necessary for adequate financial statements are contained in the main financial statements. In recent years, the need for calculating performance indicators has been growing using information from balance sheets, profit and loss statements and cash flow statements. In this regard, the document will focus on four types of financial performance indicators: solvency and liquidity indicators, income quality indicator, capital expenditure indicator and cash refund indicator (Đukić T., 2013). Evaluation and analysis of the financial performance of banks is important for all internal and external users, such as bank managers, depositors, lenders, investors, employees and regulatory authorities. Banks are expected to, among other things, achieve their short-term profit maximization, which is often measured by return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROА) or net interest margin (NIM) and long-term welfare maximization goals, which are usually measured by earnings per share (EPS) or market price per share(MPS). International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3716 A periodic assessment of financiаl indicators is therefore mandatory in order to prove whether the short-term and long-term goals of banks and the interest of stakeholders have been achieved, that is, the corresponding economic needs of various stakeholders. Periodic performance evaluation makes sense if trend analysis (internal analysis) is supported by cross-section (Inter Analysis). This type of analysis helps banks take responsive and proactive measures to overcome their weaknesses, maintain their strengths, and learn from similar firms (Dr. Tesfatsion Sahlu Desta, 2016). The financial market serves as an importаnt financial intermediary in the financing of capital and the distribution of fund resources across various sectors of the economy. Along with providing cash payments for the consumption of goods and services, the financial system can support effective investments that will stimulate economic growth, stability and sustainability. Two functions of the financial market operate through the money market and the capital market. All of financial institutions, like other companies are confronted with many risk types while operating their business. A critical risk affecting business performance is financial risk. The study showed that the seven largest commercial banks in Thailand tried to maintain their financial performance, and almost all firms achieved the expected goal. And when compared with the average industry standard, the results of the study should have been consistent with the results of each study of the financial indicators of banks. This study used the financial correlation of the CAMEL model to assess the performance of commercial banks in general and each bank in detail, but many sources of information must be used to explain the results of incident data (Panrod, T. 2018). Banks play an important role in the economic growth of each country, especially private banks. Therefore, this study focuses on the activities of the three largest private sector banks listed on both the National Stock Exchange (NSE) and the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).Financial ratios are used for the statistical analysis on banks performance. Three important indicators namely, Return on Assets (ROA) which measures Internal-based performance, Tobin’s Q model (price/Book ratio) which measures market-based performance and Return on equity (ROE) which is a key profitability ratio that investors use to measure of the amount of a Bank's income that is returned as shareholder equity have been used to measure financial performance of the selected private banks. The data has been selected for the period 2006 to 2017 of the selected banks. The multiple regression method was used to determine financial indicators, measured by three indicators, based on independent variables, size of banks, credit risk, asset management, operational efficiency and debt ratio. The results show that all selected ratios affect the financial performance of private commercial banks (Nataraja N., 2018). Increasing the profitability of banks is one of the most important aspects in ensuring its stability. Therefore, it is advisable to regularly analyze the return on assets (ROA) of commercial banks or the banking system. Because of this indicator, it is possible to assess the risks of the bank. The analysis of ROA provides an opportunity to assess the credit risk, interest rate risk, liquidity risk, operational risk and any risks that affect the level of profitability of banks (O. Sattarov, 2018). An objective assessment of the effectiveness of commercial banks, the main purpose of which is to make a International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3717 profit, is very important not only for the heads of financial institutions working in this area, but also for high-ranking government officials. For this reason, effective commercial banks make a significant contribution to the effectiveness of ongoing economic reforms. This, in turn, leads to ensuring the quality of economic growth and social welfare of the country. Therefore, banking and financial institutions are trying to increase the efficiency of commercial banks using various political and economic instruments (Sh. Khannaev, 2019). The main purpose of calculating the financial stability indicators of commercial banks is to provide users with information on how stable a financial institution is. An international comparison of these indicators helps to shed more light on the nature of this indicator. To this end, IMF experts first developed and recommended indicators for calculating financial stability in 1992. Some changes were made in 2002 and most recently in 2006. These indicators of financial stability are 39, and they are divided into 2 groups. The first group includes key indicators (related to the banking system) and consists of 12 financial indicators. 27 indicators belonging to the second group are recommended for use in the calculation of financial stability of non-bank financial institutions, enterprises and households (F. Nasriddinov, 2018). III. R ESEARCH M ETHODOLOGY 3.1. Research Design This study used an explanatory type of study design with a quantitative data analysis approach. 3.2. Sources of Dataand Methods of DataCollection The data source was completely secondary, which was obtained, in particular, for the seven years (2013-2019 (U.C)) of the bank's annual audited financial statements. Therefore, a critical review was conducted of secondary data obtained from the annual audited financial statements of banks for seven years, as well as various studies related to the current study.
Seven-year (2013- 2019 (U.C)) data was selected from the annual audited financial statements of six purposively selected private commercial banks (Trast Bank (TB), Orient Finance Bank (OFB), Davr Bank (DB),Turkistan Bank (TB), Ravnaq-Bank (RB) and Hi-TechBank (HTB)). These banks were specially selected from 8 private commercial banks of Uzbekistan due to the availability of well-organized audited financial statements in these separate periods of the study. 3.4. Methods of Data Analysis and Interpretation After completing the data collection process, descriptive statistics, a linear multiple regression model, and Pearson's correlation analytical methods were adopted. For data processing and analysis, STATA software version 14.0 was used. F-test and multicollinearity tests were performed to test the statistical significance of factors at a 5 percent significance level.
International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3718 3.5. TheConceptual Structureof the Study
Figure 1: Banking Specific Factors that may affect the Financial Performance of Private Banks Table 1: Definition of Variables S. No Explanatory Variables Description of Measurement (proxies) Conception Independent Variables 1 Bank size Natural logarithm of Total Assets (log of assets) BS 2 AssetManagement Operational Income/Total Assets AsM 3 Operational Efficiency Total Operating expenses / Interest Income OE Dependent Variables: related to financial performance (Profitability) 1 Return on Assets Net profit/Total asset ROA 2 Interest income Interest received – Interest Paid INTINC 3.6. Regression Model Specification To assess the financial stability of private banks in Uzbekistan, two models were developed, each of which has one dependent variable and five identical independent variables, as shown below. As shown below, multiple regression analysis was adopted to show specific factors of the bank that affect bank profitability;
(1)
(2) Where:
= Represents Return on Asset of the bank at time and
= Interest income of the bank at time ;
= Constant, intercept;
=Error term where is cross sectional at time period.
, and
Coefficient indicating rate of change of financial performance as of the independent variables.
=Bank’s size for bank in year
=Assets Management ratio for bank in year
=Operational Efficiency for bank in year where =2013-2019 International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3719 IV. R ESULTS AND D ISCUSSION In this part of the study, a logical analysis is presented that shows empirical data on certain financial performance indicators of private banks in Uzbekistan.
This section shows the number of observations based on the data that was collected and the result of descriptive statistics of the involved verified variables, which were the return on assets, interest income, size of banks, asset management ratio and operational efficiency of the data that worked over the entire period of time from 2013 to 2019. Table 2: Result of Descriptive Statistics ROA INTINC BS AsM OE Observation 42
42 42
42 42
Mean 3.081929 40899.71 12.81783 15.62738 100.4662 Minimum 0 1689 10.32118 5.77 52.17
Maximum 8.97
200111 15.21223 42.12 476.52
1.296593 6.456804 73.67502 As the table above depicts, all the dependent and explanatory variables are having range of 42observations. The average return on the asset is 3.081929, which shows that the percentage of ROА is 1%, which is very low, with 0 minimum and 8.97 maximum values with a standard deviation of 2.182004.TheInterest Income (ININC) is 40899.71on average, which shows that percentage is more than 100 with a rangeof1689 minimum and 200111 maximum value with the standard deviation of 56626.5. In addition, the size of banks (BS), measured as Ln of total assets, has a very high average value of 12.81783, which shows that the percentage value is greater than 100 with a range of minimum values of 10.32118 and maximum values of 15.21223, while the standard deviation is 1.2966.Theaverage value of asset management (AM) is 15.52738, and its standard deviation is 6.456804. The average value of operational efficiency (OE) is 100.4662, and its standard deviation is 73.67502.
Pearson's correlation coefficients show whether dependent and independent variables are related and how much they correlate with each other. Table 3: Correlation Statistics ROA INTINC BS AsM OE ROA 1
INTINC .337** 1
.363** .949***
1
AsM .489*** -.093* -.160* 1
.321** -.303**
-.280* .533*** 1 Robust standard errors in parenthesis; all regressions include regional fixed effects ***p <0.01, **p <0.05, *p <0.1 As is observed on table 3, ROA has a positive correlation with bank size, ININC, asset management, and bank operating efficiency. This means that with the increase in the size of banks, ININC, asset management and
International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3720 operational efficiency, the efficiency of banks in the formation of ROA on the assets invested by them will increase. Moreover, ININC has a negative relationship with asset management and operational efficiency of banks, and also has a positive correlation with the size of banks and ROA. The results also show that when the remaining variables increase, there may bean increase in ININC. The correlation between ROA and Bank size (BS) is 0.363. The correlation result indicates a weak positive correlation between dependent variable (ROA) and independent variable (BS), which is 36.3 percent. It is also clear from correlation test, there is a very strong positive correlation between dependent variable (ROA) and Asset management (AsM), which is 49%. While the relationship between dependent variable (ROA) and independent variables is34 percent which shows a weak positive correlation. This result of correlation between Interest Income (ININC) dependent variable and Bank size (BS) shows a strong positive correlation, which is 95%. It is clear from correlation test that there is a moderate negative correlation between dependent variable Interest Income (ININC) and Independent Variable Asset Management (AM) that is -9.3%. The test indicates the moderate negative correlation between dependent variable Interest Income (ININC) and independent variable Operational Efficiency (OE) that is -30%.
The results of a regression analysis of the relationship between ROA and bank size, asset management and operational efficiency are presented in table 4. Table 4: Regression Analysis (ROA)
.6549391 .2742724 2.39 0.017 AsM .1106824 .0397366 2.79 0.005 OE .0124649 .0042127 2.96 0.003 cons -8.294944 3.735365 -2.22 0.026 Prob > F 0.0000
R-squared 0.4798
Adj R-squared 0.4591 The regression coefficients and their associated p values are presented in table 4. The results indicate that there is a positive relationship between banks size, Asset Management, Operational Efficiency and ROA. Accordingly, the reported p values of bank size, asset management, and operational efficiency are less than the critical p value of 0.05, which indicates their statistical significance. The relationship can be illustrated in a regression formula as follows. (3)
Regression results indicate that banks size shows positive relationship with ROA with a coefficient of 0.65. This result indicates that with a 1 percent increase in the bank’s size, there is 0.6549391 percent increase in ROA of a bank. There is a significant relationship between ROA and bank size. According to the results, Asset Management is positively related with ROA with a coefficient 0.1106824. The regression coefficient also turned out to be statistically significant with a significance level of 0%.Similarly, when Operational Efficiency increase by one unit, International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3721 ROA will increase by 0.0124649 units. Further, the above formula shows that when all independent variables are zero, ROA will be-8.294944. An adjusted R-squared of 0.4591 indicates that 45.91% of ROA variations are explained by independent variables, and 54.09% of ROA variations are explained by other factors not included in the model. The results of a regression analysis of the relationship between ININC and bank size, asset management, and operational efficiency are presented in the table below. Table 5: Regression Analysis (INTINC)
.902673 .1079769 8.36 0.000
AsM .0489261 .0127911 3.83 0.001 OE -.0037196 .0014622 -2.54 0.016 cons -2.212484 1.450339 -1.53 0.137 Prob > F 0.0000
R-squared 0.8506
Adj R-squared 0.9096
In accordance with the above data in table 05, a similar relationship for ININC may be observed. There is a positive and significant relationship between the size of banks, Asset Management and ININC. Although operational effectiveness is negatively related to ININC, it has a significant effect on ININC. The relationship can be illustrated in a formula as follows. (4) When the size of the banks changes by 1 unit, ININC will increase by 0.902673 indicating a significant relationship between those two variables. However, as per the findings there is a positive and significant relationship between Asset Management and ININC. An adjusted R-squared of 0.9096 indicates that 90.96 % of the variation in ININC is explained by the independent variables.
This study examines the impact on the financial performance of private banks in Uzbekistan. Six private banks were taken as a sample in order to analyze financial results .The study was also aimed at studying bank-specific factors of financial performance of private banks in Uzbekistan using secondary data for 2013-2019. The multiple regression analysis was made using two dependent variables (ROАand ININC) and three independent variables (banks size, Asset Management, Operational Efficiency). The result of the regression clearly showed that the size of banks is a statistically significant determining factor, which positively increases the financial stability of private banks in Uzbekistan, since it can help banks realize their economic scale. Return on asset and interest income were taken as dependent variables while banks size, asset management and operational efficiency were taken as independent variables. The results showed that ROАof banks strongly and positively affected the size of banks. Operational effectiveness was positively associated with ROА, and the results also showed that it was statistically significant. Other dependent variable interest incomes of banks had a strong positive effect on the size of the bank and are statistically significant. Interest income showed a positive relationship
International Journal of Psychosocial Rehabilitation, Vol. 24, Issue 05, 2020 ISSN: 1475-7192 DOI: 10.37200/IJPR/V24I5/PR202080 Received: 03 Mar 2020 | Revised: 25 Mar 2020 | Accepted: 02 Apr 2020
3722 with operational efficiency, and the results were also statistically significant. From a practical point of view, this study is useful for bankers in making decisions on increasing the financial performance of the bank.
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