8. GDP growth in 2017 continued a positive trend, reaching 4.0 percent yoy in Q4.
Headline inflation dropped below the target range in 2015–17, resulting from a decline in oil prices
and falling core inflation, but is projected to rise along with stronger domestic demand and move
toward lower bound of the target in H1/2018. Overall, financial conditions continue to be
accommodative and conducive to economic growth. Financial stability remains sound but there
remain pockets of risk, especially in search-for-yield behavior due to the prolonged low interest rate
environment and low debt serviceability of households and SMEs, which are been closely monitored.
Thailand's external position reflects a current account surplus and low foreign debt. International
reserves stood at US$215 billion representing 51 percent of GDP as of Q1/2018, and low foreign
debt.
9. The fiscal stance remains expansionary to support economic recovery. The fiscal deficit
is expected to widen to support the expansion of public investment. Public debt to GDP registered
at 41.2 percent at the end of 2017, below the fiscal sustainability framework of 60 percent. The Fiscal
Responsibility Act B.E. 2561 (2018) was issued in 2018 to enhance transparency in the government
budget process.
Financial Stability Policy Framework
10. The BoT assumes the leading role in safeguarding financial stability. The BoT monitors
systemic risk and cooperates with the relevant supervisory authorities, primarily the SEC, the OIC,
and the FPO to ensure financial system stability with respect to financial institutions, financial
markets, payments systems, and sustainability of macroeconomic policies.
11. There are several departments and committees within the BoT tasked with monitoring
financial stability risks. In 2016, the BoT established the FSU to monitor and identify areas of
financial risk build-up and cross-cutting issues, drawing on sectoral surveillance conducted by
different departments within the BoT as well as cooperate with other supervisory authorities by
exchanging information and jointly conducting risk monitoring and assessments. The FSU develops
the tools and capacity for financial stability assessments, undertaking the design of macroeconomic
scenarios for stress testing, and developing a macroprudential toolkit and framework in preparation
for policy functions. The FSU also acts as secretariat for financial stability meetings and is the editor
of the Financial Stability Report.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
