Future vulnerability of sarasota county, fl, to hurricane storm
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CURRENT & FUTURE VULNERABILITY OF SARASOTA COUNTY, FL, TO HURRICANE STORM SURGE & SEA LEVEL RISE Dr. Tim Frazier, Penn State University –The University of Idaho Dr. Brent Yarnal, Penn State University Dr. Nathan Wood, U.S. Geological Survey Introduction Goal Develop a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework that integrates geospatial analysis and stakeholder input to facilitate enhanced community resilience through planning. –
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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Prior Research SLOSH Model = Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes Model Wu et al. (2002) Kleinosky et al. (2007) Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Prior Research Wood, Church, Frazier, & Yarnal (2007) Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Study Area Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 1 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 2 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 SLOSH Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 with 30 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 with 60 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 with 90 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 4-5 with 120 cm Sea Level Rise Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent of Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Total Population in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Population Over 65 in Surge Zone‐ Category 3 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Female Head of Households in Surge Zone‐ Category 3 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 1 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 2 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 3 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions 0% 10%
20% 30%
40% 50%
60% 70%
80% 90%
100% Bee Ridge Desoto Lakes Englewood Fruitville Gulf Gate Estates Kensington Park Lake Sarasota Laurel Longboat Key Nokomis North Port North Sarasota Osprey
Plantation Ridge Wood Heights Sarasota Sarasota Springs Siesta Key South Gate Ridge South Sarasota South Venice Southgate The Meadows Vamo Venice
Venice Gardens Warm Mineral Springs Unincorporated Sarasota County Percent Tax Parcels in Surge Zone ‐ Category 4/5 SLOSH
Plus 30 Plus 60
Plus 90 Plus 120
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Sarasota County, Florida: Land Use 2050 Focus Groups •
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Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Category 3 With 30, 60, 90, 120, cm of SLR Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Results: Overall •
development •
service boundary •
hazard zones •
development Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Results: Business •
businesses •
FEMA restrictions •
essential facilities •
restrictions Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Results: Environmental •
on environmental areas •
rights •
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Results: Planners •
outside hazards zones •
development •
from coast •
realities Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Results: Facilities & Infrastructure •
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flexibility –
plan •
future –
infrastructure in hazard zones –
Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Results: Government Officials •
of urban service boundary •
cost of moving (facilities & infrastructure) •
residential outside hazard zones •
more N to S Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Conclusions •
hazards zones •
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hazards zones –
– Explore evacuation alternatives Urban growth boundaries in coastal communities could contribute to hurricane hazards exposure Introduction Phase 1 Results Phase 2 Results Conclusions Download 106.97 Kb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: 
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