H eidelberg I nstitute for I nternational
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- AROMETER 2010 Crises - Wars - Coups d’ ´ Etat Negotiations - Mediations - Peace Settlements
- Sub-Saharan Africa - wars
- The Americas - wars
- Asia and Oceania - wars
- The Middle East and Maghr eb - wars
- Global Conflict Panorama Global Development
- Global Conflict Intensities in 2010 compared to 2009
- Table of Contents Global Conflict Panorama
- Measures of Conflict Resolution
- Global Conflicts of low, medium and high Intensity 1945 to 2010
- Analysis intrastate - interstate
- Number of Intra- and Interstate Conflicts in 2010 by Intensity Level
- Intra- and Interstate Conflicts of high Intensity 1945 to 2010
- Distribution of all Conflicts in 2010 by Region and Intensity Type
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H EIDELBERG I NSTITUTE FOR I NTERNATIONAL C ONFLICT R ESEARCH at the Department of Political Science, University of Heidelberg C ONFLICT B AROMETER 2010 Crises - Wars - Coups d’ ´ Etat Negotiations - Mediations - Peace Settlements 19th ANNUAL CONFLICT ANALYSIS 4 5 S ev er e cr isis
W ar The countries affected by more than Eur ope - sever e crises 1 - secession, system/ideo. 2 - se
cession, system/ideology Sub-Saharan Africa - sever e crises 3
- r egional pr edominance 4
- sec ession, r esour ces
5 - r
egional pr edominance, r esour ces
6 - r egional pr edominance Sub-Saharan Africa - wars 7
- system/ideology 8 -
regional pr edominance, r esour ces
The Americas - sever e crises 9
- system/ideology , r egional pr edominance, r esour
ces The Americas - wars 10
- r egional pr edominance, r esour
ces Asia and Oceania - sever e crises 11
- secession 12
- system/ideology 13 - r
egional pr edominance, r esour ces
14 - s
ecession 15
- r egional pr edominance 16
- system/ideology , r
egional pr edominance 17 -
system/ideology ,
r egional pr edominance 18
- secession, system/ideology
19
- syste m/ideology , national power
20
- system/ideology , national power 21 - s
ystem/ideology , national power 22 - secession, system/ideology 23 - r
egional pr edominance 24 - autonomy 25 - system/ideology , r egional pr edominance 26
- system/ideology , national power
27
- system/ideology , national power 28
- system/ideology , national power Name - conflict item(s) 23 18 1 9 17 20 28 27 8 19 24 14 12 3 15 26 2 25 16 11 6 21 22 5 4 7 10 13 Global Conflict Panorama 1
Global Development In 2010, a total of 363 conflicts were observed. Among these were six wars and 22 severe crises, amounting to 28 highly-violent conflicts, i.e. conflicts fought out with the use of massive violence. Sporadic violence oc- curred in 126 conflicts, which were therefore classified as crises. The remaining 209 conflicts were conducted without the use of violent force, with 109 conflicts being classified as latent and 100 as manifest conflicts. Com- pared to the previous year, the total number of conflicts decreased slightly from 368 to 363. While the number of crises rose from 110 to 126, the number of highly- violent conflicts sunk considerably from 25 severe crises and eight wars, i.e. 33 highly violent conflicts, in 2009, to 22 severe crises and six wars, i.e. 28 highly-violent conflicts, in 2010.
2009
2010 107
107 118
118 110
110 25 25 8 8 109 109 100
100 126
126 22 22 6 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
120 130
140 150
n umber
of conflicts
latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war Four of the six wars had already been fought out on this level of intensity in the previous years: Afghanistan (Taliban) and Somalia (Islamist groups), Iraq (militant groups), and Pakistan (various Islamist militants). The remaining two wars, Mexico (drug cartels) and Sudan (Darfur), had been classified as severe crises in 2009. Sudan (Darfur) had already been fought out as a war from 2004 to 2008. Therefore, all six wars indicated a hardening and self-perpetuation of massive violence. Four of last year’s eight wars were not conducted on this level of intensity again: Violence ceased in the con- flict between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and the government in Sri Lanka, whereas the conflicts between Hamas and the Israeli government, between al-Houthi rebels and the Yemeni government, and be- tween Taliban and tribal militias in Pakistan, respectively, deescalated slightly to severe crises. The number of se- vere crises dropped from 25 to 22, as two of last year’s severe crises escalated to wars (see above) in 2010, while ten deescalated to crises, i.e. violence abated, but did not cease. The remaining 13 severe crises of 2009 remained on the same level of intensity. Of the remaining nine of this year’s severe crises, three - al- ready mentioned above - had been wars in 2009, while five had escalated from crises to severe crises, and one had turned from a manifest conflict to a severe crises [ → Kyrgyzstan (Uzbeks - Kyrgyz)]. The total number of con- flicts decreased by five, as four new conflicts emerged in 2010, while nine conflicts had ended in 2009. In ad- dition, two conflicts were considered to have ended in 2010 so far. Two of the new conflicts arose in Asia and Oceania, one of which turned violent in the very year of its beginning [ → Indonesia (Lintas Tanzim)]. One new conflict emerged in the Americas, where also the two conflicts considered to have ended in 2010 were lo- cated. Both of them were inter-state disputes, between Uruguay and Argentina as well as Paraguay and Bolivia, respectively. The territorial dispute between Paraguay and Bolivia concerning the northern part of the Gran Chaco region had officially been settled in 2009. How- ever, Bolivia’s purchase of military equipment led to re- newed tensions. After Bolivia had emphasized its in- tention to strengthen border control and fight drug traf- ficking, in March 2010, Uruguay, Paraguay, and Bolivia, agreed to revitalize a strategic alliance. On August 15, the three presidents signed an agreement on regional integration. In Asia and Oceania, six conflicts had al- ready ended in 2009, as the LTTE’s military defeat had put an end to its disputes with various Sri Lankan mili- tant groups. Another dispute had ended in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2009, as the northern Somali region of Maakhir ceased to consider itself an own state independent from the autonomous region of Puntland. In the Middle East and Maghreb, the 2009 elections in Mauretania finally le- galized the government that had taken power in a coup in 2008. In Europe, the territorial dispute between Ro- mania and the Ukraine was settled by an ICJ ruling in 2009.
In order to reveal a long-term trend, the five intensity lev- els were categorized into three groups: The two non- violent levels are summarized as low intensity conflicts and severe crises together with wars as conflicts of Table of Contents Global Conflict Panorama Global Development 1 Analysis intrastate - interstate 2 Regional Development 2 Dynamics within individual Conflicts 3 Conflict Items 3 Coups d’ ´ Etat 4 Terrorism 5 Measures of Conflict Resolution Negotiations and Treaties 5 International Organizations 6 Autoritative Decisions by the ICJ 8
Europe
9 Sub-Saharan Africa 23 The Americas 42 Asia and Oceania 52 The Middle East and Maghreb 74 Methodology 88 Imprint
89 2 Conflict Barometer 2010 high intensity, while crises for this purpose are labelled medium intensity conflicts. The below graph also dis- plays the total number of conflicts observed. As the
graph shows, the number of conflicts observed per year rose more or less continuously from 83 in 1945 to 363 in 2010. However, this increase must partly be consid- ered as a statistical artifact, as the scope and quality of available information on current conflicts augmented considerably in recent years. Most of the observed con- flicts were conflicts of low-intensity. With regard to high- intensity conflicts, their number increased continuously and - for the most part - regularly until 1992, when an all-time high was reached with 51 high-intensity con- flicts, shortly after the decline of the Soviet Union and the breakup of Yugoslavia. Afterwards, their number dropped sharply, but then rose again until it reached 45 in 2003. The last seven years were marked by an oscil- iation of highly-violent conflicts between 31 and 41, i.e. on a medium level, as well as by a sharp increase in the number of crises. While highly-violent conflicts dropped to 28 in 2010, the number of crises reached an all-time high with 126. Global Conflicts of low, medium and high Intensity 1945 to 2010 low intensity medium intensity high intensity Total ............ ........... .......
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1945 1950
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2005 2010
Analysis intrastate - interstate As in the past years, intrastate conflicts accounted for a clear majority of the conflicts monitored, with 269 in con- trast to 94 interstate cases. Only six of the 126 crises, i.e. sporadically violent conflicts, occurred between two states. Most remarkably, all except for one were located in Asia and Oceania, the remaining one in Europe. Four of those interstate conflicts had already been classified as crises in 2009: Armenia vs. Azerbaijan, North Ko- rea vs. South Korea, Pakistan vs. India, and Thailand vs. Cambodia. The conflict between the USA and Pak- istan had already been classified as a crisis in 2008, but had deescalated to a manifest conflict in 2009. In 2010, the conflict turned violent again when a US-led NATO helicopter strike in Kurram Agency in the Federally Ad- ministered Tribal Areas (FATA) killed Pakistani Frontier Corps soldiers and wounded another three on Septem- ber 29. The following day, Pakistan stopped all NATO supply trucks passing through Khyber Agency on their way to Afghanistan. Number of Intra- and Interstate Conflicts in 2010 by Intensity Level interstate intrastate 52 52 36 36 6 6 0 0 0 0 57 57 64 64 120 120
22 22 6 6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
130 140
n umber
of conflicts
latent conflict manifest conflict crisis severe crisis war The sixth interstate crisis erupted between Thailand and Myanmar. None of the 28 highly-violent conflicts were fought out between states. The long-term analysis, for which both high-intensity cat- egories, i.e. severe crisis and war, were summarized in one group, clearly showed that the intrastate predomi- nance among the highly violent conflicts was observable from the very beginning of the examination period.
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............... ............................................................................................................... ............................................... 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 n umber of conflicts 1945 1950
1955 1960
1965 1970
1975 1980
1985 1990
1995 2000
2005 2010
Regional Development With 114, roughly one third of all conflicts were located in Asia and Oceania, the highest number among the five regions. Sub-Saharan Africa ranked second with 85, fol- lowed by Europe with 64, the Middle East and Maghreb with 55, and the Americas with 45. Regarding highly violent conflicts, Asia and Oceania as well as the Middle East and Maghreb accounted for nine high-intensity con- flicts each. However, while two among those nine were wars in the Middle East and Maghreb, Asia and Oceania witnessed one war in 2009. In sub-Saharan Africa, six highly violent conflicts, among them two wars, were ob- served in 2010. Europe and the Americas accounted for two high-intensity conflicts each. While the two of which in Europe were severe crises, the Americas saw their first war since 2003 [ → Mexico (drug cartels)]. Compared to 2009, the number of highly violent con- Global Conflict Panorama 3 flicts remained the same in Europe, Asia and Oceania as well as the Middle East and Maghreb, and decreased in the Americas and Sub-Saharan Africa. The latter re- gion saw the most distinct decrease, as the number of high-intensity conflicts dropped from ten in 2009 to six in 2010. Yet, only one of these ten had been a war in 2009, while two wars were counted in the region in 2010. In the Americas, high-intensity conflicts decreased by one, leaving two highly violent conflicts in 2010. However, one of them was the above mentioned war in Mexico, thereby constituting an increase of the number of wars. In Asia and Oceania, there were nine highly violent con- flicts both in 2009 and 2010; the number of wars among them decreased from three to one. In the Middle East and Maghreb, the overall number of highly violent con- flicts remained the same, with nine cases both in 2009 and 2010. Nevertheless, the number of wars among these cases sunk from four to two. In Europe, highly violent conflicts amounted to two both in 2009 and 2010, all of them being severe crises.
low intensity medium intensity high intensity 45 45
60 31 17 34 15 45 15 2 6 2 9 9 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
110 120
130 140
n umber
of conflicts
Europe sub-Saharan Africa the Americas Asia and Oceania the Middle East and Maghreb If the number of high-intensity conflicts was related to the number of states in the respective region, the Mid- dle East and Maghreb with 0.43 highly violent conflicts per state ranked clearly before Asia and Oceania with 0.21 and Sub-Saharan Africa with 0.13. From this rela- tive point of view, it is obvious that the Middle East and Maghreb was the region worst affected by severe vio- lence in 2010 - as had been the case in previous years.
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