International Economics
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Dominick-Salvatore-International-Economics
terms-of-trade effect
of growth. The effect of growth on the nation’s welfare depends on the net result of the terms-of-trade effect and a wealth effect. The wealth effect refers to the change in the output per worker or per person as a result of growth. A positive wealth effect, by itself, tends to increase the nation’s welfare. Otherwise, the nation’s welfare tends to decline or remain unchanged. If the wealth effect is positive and the nation’s terms of trade improve as a result of growth and trade, the nation’s welfare will definitely increase. If they are both unfavorable, the nation’s welfare will definitely decline. If the wealth effect and the terms-of-trade effect move in opposite directions, the nation’s welfare may deteriorate, improve, or remain unchanged depending on the relative strength of these two opposing forces. For example, if only L doubles in Nation 1, the wealth effect, by itself, tends to reduce Nation 1’s welfare. This was the case shown in Figure 7.4. Furthermore, since this type of growth tends to expand the volume of trade of Nation 1 at P M = P B = 1, Nation 1’s terms of trade also tend to decline. Thus, the welfare of Nation 1 will decline for both reasons. This case is illustrated in Figure 7.5. Figure 7.5 is identical to Figure 7.4, except that now Nation 1 is assumed to be large enough to affect relative commodity prices. With the terms of trade deteriorating from P M = P B = 1 to P N = 1 / 2 with growth and trade, Nation 1 produces at point N , exchanges 140X for 70Y with Nation 2, and consumes at point T on indifference curve IV (see the top panel). Since the welfare of Nation 1 declined (i.e., the wealth effect was negative) even when it was too small to affect its terms of trade, and now its terms of trade have also deteriorated, the welfare of Nation 1 declines even more. This is reflected in indifference curve IV being lower than indifference curve VII . The bottom panel of Figure 7.5 shows with offer curves the effect of this type of growth on the volume and the terms of trade when Nation 1 does not affect its terms of trade (as in the bottom panel of Figure 7.4) and when it does. Salvatore c07.tex V2 - 10/16/2012 10:01 A.M. Page 202 202 Economic Growth and International Trade P B = 1 70 100 120 130 240 270 0 10 20 30 70 80 100 160 P N = P B = P M = 1 1 2 N M E B T Z IV III VII X Y X Y 140 150 P N = 1 2 Nation 2 Nation 1* Z T E 60 0 60 70 160 Nation 1 P M = P B = 1 FIGURE 7.5. Growth and Trade: The Large-Country Case. Figure 7.5 is identical to Figure 7.4, except that now Nation 1 is assumed to be large enough to affect the terms of trade. With the terms of trade deteriorating from P M = P B = 1 to P N = 1 / 2 with growth and trade, Nation 1 produces at point N, exchanges 140X for 70Y with Nation 2, and consumes at point T on indifference curve IV (see the top panel). Since indifference curve IV is lower than VII, the nation’s welfare will decline even more now. The bottom panel shows with offer curves the effect of this type of growth on the volume and the terms of trade when Nation 1 affects its terms of trade and when it does not. 7.5 B Immiserizing Growth Even if the wealth effect, by itself, tends to increase the nation’s welfare, the terms of trade may deteriorate so much as to lead to a net decline in the nation’s welfare. This case was termed Download 7.1 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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