International Economics
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Dominick-Salvatore-International-Economics
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∗ when the U.S. supply curve of euros is S¤, or more elastic, and from R to R ∗∗ when the U.S. supply curve of euros is S ¤ , or less elastic. Turning to the real world and back to Figure 14.3, we see that the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the currencies of the largest (G-7) industrial nations did fluctuate widely on a daily basis from 1980 to 2002. Since 1973, most nations have had managed rather than freely floating exchange rates. To the extent that the intervention of national monetary authorities in foreign exchange markets had some success in their alleged aim of smoothing out short-run fluctuations in exchange rates, fluctuations in exchange rates would have been even greater under a freely floating exchange rate system. The question of time is also crucial. That is, elasticities are likely to be higher and thus exchange rate fluctuations lower in the long run than in the short run. But it is with the short-run instability in exchange rates that we are now primarily concerned. Excessive short-run fluctuations in exchange rates under a flexible exchange rate system may be costly in terms of higher frictional unemployment if they lead to over-frequent attempts at reallocating domestic resources among the various sectors of the economy. The short-run tendency of exchange rates to overshoot their long-run equilibrium level has also been noted in Section 15.5a and Case Study 15-7. According to advocates of flexible exchange rates, the uncertainty and instability sur- rounding the large discrete changes in par values that periodically become necessary under a fixed exchange rate system are even more damaging and disruptive to the smooth flow of international trade and investments than the uncertainty inherent in fluctuating exchange rates. Furthermore, while the latter uncertainty can generally be hedged, the former cannot. Salvatore c20.tex V2 - 11/07/2012 10:10 A.M. Page 650 650 Exchange Rates, European Monetary System, Policy Coordination Fluctuations in the exchange rate R** 0 E** E* R'' R* R' R R ($/ ) E E' D* D' S' E'' Million /day D S FIGURE 20.1. Shifts in the Nation’s Demand Curve for Foreign Exchange and Uncertainty. The shift over time in the U.S. demand curve for euros from the average D ¤ to D ¤ and then to D ∗ ¤ causes the exchange rate to fluctuate from R to R ∗ when the U.S. supply curve of euros is S ¤ , or elastic, and from R to R ∗∗ when the U.S. supply curve is S ¤ , or inelastic. However, it must be pointed out that under a truly fixed exchange rate system, such as the gold standard, the exchange rate is always kept fixed, and so this source of uncertainty would be absent. 20.3 B Stabilizing Speculation According to advocates of fixed exchange rates, speculation is more likely to be destabilizing under a flexible than under a fixed exchange rate system. With destabilizing speculation, speculators purchase a foreign currency when the exchange rate is rising, in the expectation that the exchange rate will rise even more, and sell the foreign currency when the exchange rate is falling, in the expectation that the exchange rate will fall even more. In the process, the fluctuations in exchange rates resulting from business cycles are amplified, and so are the uncertainty and risks involved in international transactions. The opposite occurs under stabilizing speculation. This is illustrated in Figure 20.2. Curve A shows the hypothetical fluctuation in the exchange rate that accompanies the business cycle in the absence of speculation (along an implicit depreciating trend of the dollar over the entire cycle). Curve B shows the smaller fluctuation in the exchange rate with stabilizing speculation, and curve C shows the larger fluctuation in the exchange rate with destabilizing speculation. The amplified fluctuations in exchange rates with destabilizing speculation increase the uncertainty and risk of international transactions and reduce the international flow of trade and investments. According to advocates of a fixed exchange rate system, this is more likely to occur when exchange rates are free to vary than when they are kept fixed. Salvatore c20.tex V2 - 11/07/2012 10:10 A.M. Page 651 20.3 The Case for Fixed Exchange Rates 651 Time Download 7.1 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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