Lessons on cooperation building to manage water conflicts in the Aral Sea Basin; Technical documents in hydrology: pc-cp series; Vol.: 11; 2003

2.5.5. Analytical Tools 
The program for developing model systems was elaborated by the SIC of the ICWC. 
This program consists of a set of models: 
● 
river basin models 
● 
models of a planning zone, typically adopted in each planning zone of the Aral 
Sea Basin 
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● 
models for national water policy that satisfy the water demands of each sState 
and relate to their socioeconomic development. 
This set of models can be adapted to assist in the creation of a methodology and data 
on an interconnected base, which will support the next phase of modeling: 
● 
for future development at the regional level as a tool in the preparation of 
regional water strategy 
● 
for future development at the national level as a tool in the preparation of 
national water strategy 
● 
for multiyear flow regulation by the ICWC and for BWO multiyear planning 
● 
for annual planning of water allocation, and correction of this planning in the 
interests of the BWOs 
● 
for operational tasks of water management by each BWO. 
During the WARMAP-2 Project, the SIC of the ICWC together with the Water 
Management Authorities of all states began the elaboration of basin modeling for 
future development at the regional level, and modeling of planning zone and operation 
work for the BWOs. In addition, modeling of the basin for annual planning purposes 
was carried out by the SIC, BWOs, national teams, and the Energy Dispatch Center in 
the USAID/EPIC Program. National and regional planning models for water 
development in each state were worked out by a team at the SIC using the 
“Globsight” methodology (Prof. Messarovich) with modifications. On the basis of this, 
forecasts of different options for regional development for the “World Water Vision 21 
Century” were prepared. The completion of this work will permit the organization of 
effectively controlled water management and operations in real time as tools for the 
SIC and BWOs and, in the future, for defining priorities of national planning for water 
resources development. The required investment is estimated as about US$1.2 
million. A detailed description of the proposed approach to analytical tool development 
is presented in the Annex.