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ALRI income is fragile and debts are accumulating
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ALRI income is fragile and debts are accumulating. Revenues have increased but still fall substantially short of requirements to rehabilitate infrastructure on the scale required. Public spending on irrigation is small compared to the level of need. Most funds come from user charges but these are constrained by low farm productivity. Financing for agriculture is caught in a downward spiral of poor performance leading to low productivity, which reduces both the ability and the willingness of farmers to pay for water, which in turn reduces the available finance for investment. Where service is weak there is likely to be little appetite to pay an increased tariff. Services have to improve with the current fees. Investment on the scale needed to bring about a substantial improvement in irrigation and drainage infrastructure requires a major financial injection. This cannot be achieved by increasing user fees. Irrigation only accounts for a very small proportion of the republican budget so there may be scope for reallocation of state funding. This could be coordinated with donor funding to boost investment. However, improving sector performance requires more than just funding. Attention is needed to staff capacity and to the institutional structures of the WUAs. In addition, investment needs to be coordinated with energy sector investment as electricity outages are also responsible for erratic irrigation service. As with the rest of the sector, drinking water supply and sanitation (WSS) has been through a number of reforms. Since 31 December 2011 SUE KMK has been the state body responsible for drinking water and sanitation in urban and rural areas. KMK operates through a number of sub-agencies across the country with 55 operating in urban areas and 17 in rural areas, covering about 80% of total water service provision. In addition, there are seven separate water utilities that are not part of KMK, mainly operating in big cities (including Dushanbe and Khujand) and these report to the local government authority. This fragmentation makes it difficult to pin down public expenditures in the sector. Executive summary 4 While access rates have been increasing, still only about 2/3 of the population uses safe drinking water. Donor and government investment efforts have been focused on improving access in urban areas and in the rural areas with the most acute supply issues. Meanwhile over half the rural population (around 3.5 million) does not have access to safe drinking water while there is virtually no access (0.2%) to sanitation facilities in rural areas. Water losses are increasing ranging 20-50% in urban areas and much of the infrastructure in both urban and rural areas is not operational. Tariffs have been increasing but remain below cost recovery level. Tariffs now are around US$ 0.22/m 3 , up from US$ 0.07/m 3 in 2007 and collection rates are increasing. Public expenditure in WSS seems to have dropped substantially in 2010 but shows a steady growth since then but this could be related to changes in budget classifications. The share of the total budget allocated to WSS has fallen substantially since 2009 from 3% to 0.3%. KMK has been accumulated arrears as well. In part this is due to underpayment of state subsidies. The state provides subsidies through the republican and local budget for those that cannot pay for vulnerable households. However, this amount is generally consistently below the amount that KMK incurs. In addition, arrears arise from the state agencies failing to fully pay or plan for water fees in their water bills. Donors have dramatically increased support for WSS since 2009 from around 10% to over 70% of the total expenditures in the sub-sector in 2014 and now account for the majority of public expenditure in the sector. Over the past five years, donors have provided on average 3.5 times more per annum than the government. Capital expenditure account for 85% on average of total WSS expenditure but has not led to substantial improvements in access beyond Dushanbe and Khujand. Finally, Tajikistan’s water public expenditure has been inadequate to meet the development needs for both WSS and irrigation. Both irrigation and WSS face enormous investment needs and these are particularly significant in rural areas where over 70% of the population lives. There is a high incidence of poverty in rural areas. Access rates to safe water and sanitation are low to non-existent. Improving water supplies is vital to public health and to food security, rural livelihoods and poverty reduction. A substantial hike in investment finance is urgently required as the costs of inaction are high in terms of public health, poverty and land degradation. There may be some scope for improving the efficiency of the existing budgetary process. There is also potentially scope for increasing the effectiveness of budgetary allocations. Despite sector reforms, the budgetary process in the water sector continues to be largely “norm” based so that allocations are based on those made in the past rather than past consumption or expenditure. This is also often the basis for billing despite the introduction of meters in some locations. Without accounting for the donor funding to the projects in water sector, the total finance allocation to water across the sectors comes to less than 1 % of the total state budget (less than spending on culture and slightly over the expenditures on industry/mining). There could be scope for diverting funds to investment in both irrigation and WSS within existing fiscal space with better planning, allocation and transparency of the public expenditures. While major policy efforts have been made to improve water sector provision with on-going reform processes, public expenditures do not seem to reflect the stated sense of priority in recent years. Greater effort is needed to link policy formulation in water with the budgetary process. Executive summary 5 CHAPTER - 1 6 1.1. A IM , SCOPE AND STRUCTURE OF THE REPORT This report - Public Environmental Expenditure Review (PEER) of the water sector in Tajikistan - identifies the ways in which state water sector spending links with overall government spending priorities and objectives. The original Terms of Reference and the Inception Report anticipated this PEER to be divided into three roughly equal segments for the water sector: Drinking water supply and sanitation (WSS), irrigation and drainage (ID) and water resources management (WRM). After some months of discussions and data analysis, our view is that only the first two of these categories represent significant budget items for the PEER. WSS and irrigation represent the two most significant elements of water consumption across the population. WRM, in contrast, while crucial to maintaining the quality and sustainability of this resource, presents a different set of issues in that the functions are undertaken by a small group of public officials and experts. There is little public interface and the service provided is not readily quantifiable. As a result, this report devotes more quantitative analysis to WSS and irrigation and drainage. The discussion on WRM is more oriented to the details of the sector governance structures. The report is structured as follows. This section provides a brief overview of the background and context of the water PEER as well as an outline of the methodological approach and research challenges. Section 2 provides an account of Public Financial Management (PFM) in the water sector with reference to the on-going transitions in the country. Section 3 reviews public expenditure in WRM, providing an overview of the water resources in the country and structure of the sector with the roles of the agencies involved. As mentioned above, the focus of this section is on the relationships between the different agencies in policy execution and resources and financial management rather than public expenditure. Section 4 moves to a review of public expenditure in irrigation and drainage both in terms of the volume and the usage of funds. Section 5 then considers the nature of public expenditure in the drinking water subsector. Section 6 concludes. We would like to express our gratitude to the many people that have been extremely supportive and helpful in making this project possible. In particular, we are grateful to Tahmina Azizova and Anatoly Kholmatov from UNDP for their help and guidance in the project. In addition, we are extremely grateful to the staff of the Ministry of Finance, ALRI, and KMK for providing us with data. Our thanks also go to the stakeholders and government staff that kindly agreed to be interviewed to shed light on the budgetary processes and systems. List of other people who contributed to the report by sharing their opinion and thoughts is outlined in Annex 10. 1. Introduction 7 1.2 W ATER PEER IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WATER SECTOR AND THE PFM REFORMS 1.2.1 C ONTEXT Tajikistan is a small open economy, heavily dependent on imports. Exports consist largely on aluminium and cotton and this has changed little since the end of the Soviet era in 1991. Since independence the economy has grown from a low-income country in the mid-1990s to a middle- income country with per capita income of around $1,100. The country’s economy relies heavily on remittances. According to World Bank data Tajikistan has by far the highest level of personal remittances received, at 43% of GDP in 2014, a reduction from 49.6% in 2013. 2 This reliance on remittances creates a vulnerability to external economic developments, and has implications for domestic demographic, as more than a million Tajiks (out of a population of slightly more than 8 million) work as labor migrants predominantly in Russia and other former Soviet states. 3 While agriculture accounts for around 20% of economic activity, over 70% of the population lives in rural areas. While much of the rest of the world has seen migration to urban areas, Tajikistan’s the rural population increased over the past 30 years. 4 Poverty levels were around 35.6% in 2013, down from 81% in 1991. 5 . The incidence of rural poverty is estimated to be over 49%, so almost half the rural population lives in poverty (according to 2009 data). 6 Rural communities are more vulnerable to environmental degradation. The high prevalence of rural poverty means that agricultural development is vital to lifting living standards for a large proportion of the population, often in female headed households with many of the male family members working abroad as migrant labourers. Agriculture development is important for incomes and food security. Table 1.1: Poverty levels by region (%) 7 Dushanbe 19.16 Sughd region 23.93 Khatlon region 39.24 GBAO 51.53 RRS 45.69 Urban Areas 28.82 Rural Areas 39.17 RoT 35.60 Source: Statistical Agency of Tajikistan The mountainous terrain limits the availability of arable land of Tajikistan. Compared with other Central Asian countries, Tajikistan has one of the lowest per capita availability of irrigated land that was 0.097 ha in 2011, which is 2-3 times less than that of neighbouring countries (GWP 2013). 2 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS - accessed 10th May 2016 3 http://www.tj.undp.org/content/tajikistan/en/home/countryinfo.html - accessed 10th May 2016 4 Statistical Agency of Tajikistan 5 “Work for human development: Briefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report: Tajikistan” UNDP http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/TJK.pdf 6 http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org/country/statistics/tags/tajikistan - accessed 10th May 2016 7 “Work for human development: Briefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report: Tajikistan” UNDP http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/TJK.pdf CHAPTER - 1 8 1.2.2 W ATER Tajikistan is rich in water resources and this has shaped much of the country’s socio-economic activity (Box 1.1). Agriculture consumes more than 90% of the national total water consumption and is dominated by two highly water intensive crops – cotton and wheat. The main industrial activity is aluminium smelting which is also highly energy and water intensive. In addition, the country is a major producer of hydropower and is due to export electricity to other countries in the region. Hydropower accounts for 98% of the country’s energy balance and Tajikistan has 4% of the global hydropower reserves. 8 Despite the abundance of resources, there are often shortages both for irrigation and for drinking water. As in other countries of Central Asia, water resources are increasingly under stress. There is a seasonal and geographic dimension to abundance and shortage. 9 In addition, the country is considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. The country has over 14,000 glaciers, covering about 8% of the country’s territory but these have reduced their size 10 and climate change is expected to create more extreme weather events in the country. The country’s water sector has been subject to major institutional shifts since independence and this has raised particular challenges in the provision of infrastructure. Much of the infrastructure and networks for both drinking water and for irrigation are over fifty years old. While reported access figures for water are relatively high, with the Joint Monitoring Program putting urban access rates at 93% the reality is often of sporadic supplies and low quality water supplies. Access in rural areas is considerably lower at 67%. Aging infrastructure results in high levels of leakage and system failure. In irrigation, lack of drainage can lead to land contamination and degradation. The challenges facing the water sector are numerous. 11 . Following on from numerous sector reforms, the current policy focus, as set out in the Water Sector Reform Program for 2016-2025, approved in 2015, is towards a greater emphasis on WRM with coordination across different water users and river basin water management, via the establishment of River Basin Organizations (see section 3). 8 National stakeholder consultations on water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda, Global Water Partnership, Central Asia and Caucasus (2013). 9 World Bank Report: The Costs of Irrigation Inefficiency in Tajikistan (2015) 10 National stakeholder consultations on water: Supporting the Post-2015 Development Agenda, Global Water Partnership, Central Asia and Caucasus (2013). 11 See for example “Water Sector Reform Program of the Republic of Tajikistan for 2016-2025 – Unofficial Translation” and the UNDP 2015 Report: “Work for human development: Briefing note for countries on the 2015 Human Development Report: Tajikistan” Box 1.1: Water resources in Tajikistan: Glaciers: volume 845 km 3 ; area – 11,146 sq. km Average annual long-term river flow: 64 sq. km Groundwater resources: 18.7 sq. km annually Lakes: 1,300 lakes with an area of 705 sq.km; volume: 46.3 km 3 , 20 km 3 is fresh water Water reservoirs: 15.34 km 3 CHAPTER - 1 Source: National Human development reports, 2014, UNDP 9 1.2.3 P UBLIC EXPENDITURE Public expenditures in water sectors are very complex and include many sources and aimed at a variety of generic and sector specific expenditures. The nature of expenditures also varies depending on a sector. State budget, comprised on the republican and local budget, is a substantial source of funding although since 2010 most of the public expenditures in water sectors are primarily made through large donor-supported the public investment program (PIP). State budget has historically funded salaries (of public sector employees) working in water sectors (as defined by the project), recurrent expenditures and current/emergency repairs (primarily in irrigation), water subsidies (in drinking water supply) for select vulnerable groups and water bills of state owned enterprises/ministries, and limited capital expenditures through the Centralized State Investment Program (CSIP). Although to specific details/data is available on the President’s special fund (reserves) and expenditures on water sectors, some funds are believed to be used for emergency or special-purpose projects. Own resources of service providers, especially in WSS sub- sector (i.e. Vodokanals) are not public expenditures per se, but given the nature of the vodokanals (State Unitary Enterprise) are also considered in the report. Last, but not least, an important part of water expenditures (not public) but in sector that should not be underestimated, are the smaller community-based water-supply/irrigation supported by international NGOs. These numbers are extremely difficult to collect but nonetheless play an important role ensuring access to water throughout the country (figure 1.2) Figure 1.2: Water sectors public expenditure taxonomy 1.3 M ETHODOLOGY AND DATA ISSUES Our research approach aims to provide a qualitative assessment of the process of budget allocation as well as quantitative analysis of the level and distribution of expenditure in the water sector. Research information comes from data analysis, informant interviews and existing literature and data. As mentioned above, the Terms of Reference suggests an equal allocation of analysis across three elements of the water sector – drinking water, WRM and irrigation / drainage. Our findings indicate that the sectors are not equally balanced. In particular, there is far less material on WRM than the other elements. WRM is not a sub-sector like drinking water or irrigation. The sector consists of CHAPTER - 1 10 state agencies that monitor activity in water consumption and usage but these do not generate revenue or necessarily operate on a national basis in the same way as WSS and irrigation facilities. Hence our research does not provide a quantitative assessment of PER in WRM as in the other two sub-sectors. 1.3.1 D ATA SOURCES PEER aim is to identify government spending on the water sector. We obtained data from the Ministry of Finance under the relevant budget codes. For irrigation this was 10107, for water supply it was 07403 and for sanitation 02702. The research was complicated by the change of budget code classification in 2014 but the expenditures were matched as far as possible. Ministry of Finance data were supplemented by data from the sector agencies, ALRI and KMK. This provided more detail on the nature of disbursements, tariff levels, debts and revenue from user fees. This information provided a more rounded picture of the sector finances and is an important input into assessments of financial sustainability. The data were analysed to determine changes over time and the nature of budgetary allocations across different sector headings. Where appropriate, data were converted to 2015 prices using a cumulative inflator based on the World Development Indicators CPI for the country 12 . (Table 1.2). Table 1.2: Inflation and exchange rate Year Inflation rate De/Inflator Cumulative inflator Annual average exchange rate (US$/TJS) 2006 10.0 1.10 2.25 3.4 2007 13.1 1.13 2.05 3.4 2008 20.4 1.20 1.81 4.1 2009 6.4 1.06 1.50 4.4 2010 6.4 1.06 1.41 4.6 2011 12.4 1.12 1.33 4.7 2012 5.8 1.06 1.18 4.8 2013 5.0 1.05 1.11 4.9 2014 6.1 1.06 1.06 6.2 2015 - 1.00 1.00 7.5 Source: World Bank’s World Development Indicators In addition to data analysis, research interviews were held with a number of stakeholders. This was intended to shed light on the budget allocation process. 1.3.2 PEER CHALLENGES AND INFORMATION GAPS The PEER was made more challenging by the fact that the water sector is in the middle of restructuring. The Agency on Land Reclamation and Irrigation (ALRI), was only recently created. The drinking water agency KMK only recently took on responsibility for provision of drinking water in rural areas. These changes mean that the effectiveness of the institutional structure is difficult to assess to some degree and there may be reclassifications in budgetary allocations. In addition, the team found it difficult to access data in some cases. In part this was due to the requirement to trace expenditure back several years to less efficient public finance systems. In addition, there seems to be a lack of transparency in data access more generally. 12 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) (World Development Indicators, downloaded 11.4.2016) CHAPTER - 1 11 CHAPTER - 2 12 2 P UBLIC F INANCE M ANAGEMENT IN THE WATER SECTOR 2.1. S ETTING THE STAGE 2.1.1. M ACROECONOMIC AND FISCAL POLICY CONTEXT , NATIONAL PLANNING AND BUDGETING LINKS Approaching its 25 th independence anniversary, Tajikistan is a small, open, low-middle income class economy 13 with most of the growth still coming from consumption, fuelled by remittances. The country relies heavily on imports that constitute almost 2/3 of the GDP and its exports, consisting of aluminium and cotton, account for almost 20% of GDP and have remained largely unchanged since the Soviet times. Since independence, Tajikistan has managed to graduate from a low-income country in early mid-90s to low-middle income country with per capita of around $1,100 (nominal) (see figure 2.1). Figure 2.1: Tajikistan: GDP per capita growth (annual % and US$, 2000-2014) Figure 2.2: Tajikistan: GDP sectoral decompostion Source: World Bank’s World Development Indicators Source: Statistical Agency of Tajikistan and authors calculations Sectorally, Tajikistan’s economy has undergone substantial structural changes since 2000, with industry losing the most ground and the share of agriculture shrinking although it still represents around 20% of the economy (see figure 2.2). Meanwhile, service sector has expanded by over 60% with around 2/3 of GDP now coming from services, primarily driven by construction, telecom and trade. Over half of GDP now comes from private sector activity mainly due to privatization efforts in industry, agriculture and service. Barring any major developments in the real economy and in anticipation of improved flows of foreign investment as a result of major improvement in business environment, this trend is expected to continue through 2030. While registering a respectable average growth rate of 8% since 2000 (see figure 2.1), Tajikistan has weathered the 2015 global economic downturn relatively well, and has entered 2016 on a declining trend albeit still with positive economic growth rate of just under 5%. The slowing and in some cases shrinking economies of Tajikistan’s main trading partners (Russia, Kazakhstan, China and Turkey) has resulted in a dramatic decline in the U.S. dollar value of migrants’ remittances, 13 Countries with over GDP per capita income between $ 1045 and $ 4,125 are considered low-middle income country (World Bank classification) 33 13 10 25 21 20 42 65 70 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2000 2013 2030 industry agriculture services CHAPTER - 2 13 lower export earnings, and exchange rate depreciation. As a result, imports and consumption have fallen and economic performance was affected accordingly. The Tajikistan economy is vulnerable to external shocks/risks, including commodity price shocks, remittances shocks, and fluctuations in the terms of trade that are exacerbated by its landlocked position and challenging neighbourhood, primarily referring to potential security risks associated with Afghanistan and difficult relations with Uzbekistan. As a result, any change in the external environment, like the events of 2008 and 2014, has a negative impact on income growth, consumption, and household wellbeing as well as the government’s ability to raise revenues. Inflation has remained within single digits over the last 5-6 years but is expected to moderately increase in the near future, driven by raising international food and fuel prices (expressed in US$ in trade contacts), domestic credit expansion and increases in utility tariffs, dwindling remittances that offer additional downward pressure on the exchange rate. Despite being named one the best reformers in the World Bank’s “Doing Business” indicators in 2014, Tajikistan still remains outside top 130 countries 14 (132 out of 189) in the world in terms of ease of doing business. While Tajikistan has managed to substantially improve starting business and trading across borders indictors, overall issues surrounding taxation (rates and administration), access to electricity, construction permits, insolvency lag substantially behind. This is a partly reflected in the low level of foreign and domestic private investment (see figure 2.5). There is also growing concern about the availability and quality of the labour force. Given recent developments in tax and educational systems, these issues will continue to be important barriers to growth. Labour migrants’ remittances have helped Tajikistan to close its current account balance, as Tajikistan has registered an average current account deficit of over US$300 million over the last 8 years. 2014 was a record year for Tajikistan with over US$ 700 million current account deficit. Tajikistan topped the world in terms of the share of remittances in the economy during the last 3 years (currently above 40% in 2014) 15 . Given the ongoing global slowdown, this share has declined with significant impacts on the government’s coffers (via consumption and import taxes) but is expected to remain relatively high in the medium term despite substantial return migration. 14 http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/exploreeconomies/tajikistan/ 15 World Bank, Migration and Remittance factbook 2016 CHAPTER - 2 14 The widening trade balance gap in Tajikistan is a cause of concern as the country is moving fast towards a $4 billion gap between its merchandize exports and imports as the value of imports exceeding that of exports in 2014 by a factor of 6 ($730 million in exports and over $4.6 billion in imports) (figure 2.6). Given the extent of the shadow economy, this number is likely to be much higher in reality. Figure 2.5: Foreign Direct investment in Tajikistan Figure 2.6: Tajikistan - Import and Exports (% GDP) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Source: World Bank World Development Indicators Fiscal space in Tajikistan is limited and is expected to remain such in the medium term. With direct budget support from international organizations and tight fiscal policy, overall fiscal deficit remained low (between 0-2% in the last 4 years). Given large share of consumption and import taxes in total government revenues, driven by remittances and expanding consumption, revenues grew 26 fold, enabling the government to undertake reforms and fund essential services. Specifically, revenues grew from just over $100 million in 2000 to over $2.6 billion in 2014 averaging around 25% of the GDP during the last 10 years. During the same timeframe, expenditures grew by a factor of 16 from over $ 160 million to almost $ 2.7 billion, representing an average of almost 27% of the GDP (Figure 2.7). External debt while generally well-managed will ultimately represent an additional fiscal burden to the economy in the long run. While decreasing as a share in GDP from 130% in 2000 to just over 40% in 2014, in absolute terms, external debt grew 3 fold and reached $ 3.5 billion in a roughly $ 9 billion economy (Figure 2.8). 2.1.2. W ATER RELATED EXPENDITURE While the PEER will attempt to quantify water related expenditures more accurately further in the report, from the functional classification, water-related sector direct expenditures remain one of the lowest compared to other sectors. In fact, in 2015 all water related expenditures amounted to around 1 % or less than total expenditures on culture/sport, and second lowest only to surpass industry/mining expenditures. Taken together, expenditures amounted to just over TJS 150 million (US$ 20 mln.) (not including PIP) which was lower than health (TJS 1.2 billion), transport/communication at 0.96 billion and culture and sport at 476 million. Further, 2016 budget has housing and communal expenditures are one of three sectors (along with industry and transportation) with an overall decrease in allocated expenditures, with second largest cut of over 20% but the largest absolute decrease in expenditure of over 173 million somoni (US$ 22,2 mln.) CHAPTER - 2 15 Figure 2.7: Revenues and Expenditures ($ mln and % GDP) Figure 2.8: External debt ($ mln and % of GDP) Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, Ministry of Finance and authors calculations Source: World Bank World Development Indicators, Ministry of Finance and authors calculations The urban-rural divide when it comes to water expenditures is quite clear and not-surprising. When it comes to drinking water/sewage, expenditures continue to be heavily skewed towards urban areas despite these having best coverage and least amount of poor. Irrigation expenditures are predominantly rural due to the nature of such expenditures. Given the nature of costs involved, capital expenditures account for the largest share of all expenditures (given large share of donor funding), however public expenditures water-related sectors mostly include recurrent expenditure, such as salaries, recurrent expenditures. Looking forward, with average growth gates in GDP, revenue generating efforts and expenditures trends, overall fiscal envelop for water-related sectors, at best, will likely remain unchanged and may even decrease without major donor funding. CHAPTER - 2 16 2.1.3. H IGH LEVEL P UBLIC E XPENDITURE OVERVIEW Including donor funding (PIP), overall spending on water has doubled over the period between 2007 and 2014 with the state and local budget reaching 316m TJS (US$ 40 mln.) in 2014, accounting for on average 3.2% of total budget spending, (see Figure 2.9) which is less than spending on culture and slightly over the lowest category of public expenditures, mining/industry. Without donor projects, public water expenditures amount to around 1% of the total expenditures, way less compared to other similar countries. Figure 2.9: Total water sector expenditures Source: Authors’ calculations using Ministry of Finance data Donor funding greatly outweighs domestic funding from the republican and local budgets. Spending on drinking water seems to have dropped in 2010 and since increased steadily. In 2014 irrigation spending was around TJS 81 mln (US$ 16.5 mln). while spending on WSS was about TJS 47 mln (US$ 9.6 mln). The majority of total (including donor) spending (around 2/3 in 2014) in the sector overall seems to have been devoted to capital expenditure (Figure 2.10). Figure 2.10: Tajikistan water expenditures: Recurrent vs capital Source: Authors’ calculations using Ministry of Finance data Overall the sector is predominantly financed by republican budget payments and donor funding has been particularly relevant for capital expenditure. The share coming from local budgets has declined substantially since 2007. This is predominantly in WSS. In irrigation there has been little financial support from the local budget (see figure 2.11). 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 М и лл и он ы Drinking water Irrigation PIP 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% $- $ 10,00 $ 20,00 $ 30,00 $ 40,00 $ 50,00 $ 60,00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 M ili o n U SD Tajikistan water expenditures: Recurrent vs capita in USD recurrent capital share of capital expenditures CHAPTER - 2 17 Figure 2.11: Total Water expenditures: Who pays? Source: Authors’ calculations using Ministry of Finance data Donor funding (as indicated by the PIP) has increased but the flows tend to be erratic (figure 2.12). Total donor funding came to around TJS 60 mln. in 2015. Drinking water has dominated donor spending in the sector although there has been a recent increase in the amounts going to sanitation since 2012 and in the allocation to irrigation in the past five years. Figure 2.12: Donor spending according to the PIP (‘000 US$) Source: Authors’ calculations using Ministry of Finance data 2.1.4. B UDGETARY PROCESSES , BUDGET CLASSIFICATION AND BUDGETED INFORMATION IN T AJIKISTAN National planning processes in Tajikistan have substantially improved over the last ten years. Since the development of the first PRSP and NDS, the Government and donors have substantially improved national level planning processes. Improvement of national development approaches has always been a top priority of the Government. As result, a comprehensive Public Administration Reform program has been underway since the mid-2000s aimed at improving overall institutional linkages at the central, regional and local levels with regards to the development of the logical and sequential national development system with an effective administrative structure backed by efficient human resources. A ten-year Public Administration Reform Strategy (PARS) (2006-2015) 16 put forward the following 6 key areas for improvement in the national development planning processes that are outlined in the table 2.1 below. 16 Public Administration Reform Strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan, approved on March 15, 2006, President’s Decree #1713. 18% 24% 17% 39% 23% 33% 32% 32% 71% 55% 55% 3% 2% 2% 2% 6% 11% 21% 28% 58% 75% 65% 66% 62% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 republican budget local budgets donors 0 20 40 60 80 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 M ill io n T JS Irrigation Sanitation Drinking water CHAPTER - 2 18 Table 2.1. National Development Planning: 6 key areas 1. Increase effectiveness of the national development management Ensure consistency of goals and priorities, strategies, programs and plans of the national development; Separate power to define goals and priorities of the national development, develop and implement national, sector and regional programs and plans, and their monitoring; Strengthen capacity to develop, make, implement and monitor strategic decisions; Strengthen role of the civil society in decision-making and implementation. 2. Improve public administration in line with the market economy principles Limit state management of economic processes and eliminate interference of state bodies in these processes by re-structuring and re-allocation of functions; Improve system of state regulation, control and supervision; Increase level of transparency and accountability of state bodies in decision-making and implementation. 3. Increase effectiveness of public finance management Integrate the budget process with the priorities and plans of the national development; Increase accountability/transparency over public finance; Strengthen capacity to formulate and implement the Republican and local budgets; Rationalize the allocation of budget revenues among all governing levels; Introduce an effective mechanism of state procurement; Improve the state financial control system. 4. Form modern professional civil service Improve quality of vocational training at all levels of public administration; Improve civil service pay system; Modernize human resource management system; Increase motivation, eliminate corruption. 5. Develop administrative and territorial management Clearly distribute functional responsibilities among the different levels of government and allocate appropriate authority, property and finance; Streamline administrative and territorial division versus the re- assigned functions; Determine criteria for administrative and territorial division and interrelation between the state and local self-governance. 6. Form local self- governance capable of providing high- quality services to the population Distribute functions and authorities for service provision following the subsidiary principle; Define property of local self-governance according to the functions and impose/fix property rights; Develop financial autonomy of local self-governance according to its functions; Strengthen capacity of local self-governance to address issues of local importance Source: Public Administration Reform Strategy (PARS), 2005-2016 CHAPTER - 2 19 Progress with PARS is evident and material. While formal evaluation of the PARS achievement is under way, there are indications that Tajikistan has laid the foundations for national development planning processes. Specifically, an in-depth review of ministries has been conducted and the overall public administration structure streamlined to account for roles/responsibilities, many ministries and agencies restructured with policy and implementation functions divided. New agencies, have been created to strengthen central and regional development efforts. The National Development Strategy (NDS) and Living Standards Improvement Survey (LSIS) allowed for greater interaction between ministries highlighting institutional coordination and providing clear linkages among priorities, goals and outcomes expected of the public sector. As a result, National Development Council has been created and operational to allow for even greater synergies on the reform planning agenda. PFM and civil service reform have proved to be slow but on the right track to allow the next generation reforms. Yet many areas are still lagging and require additional development efforts to improve planning and implementation capacities. Doing Business survey (WB) and Economy in Transition survey (EBRD) still viewed that the government extensively interferes in the economic processes across the board; its regulatory functions are inadequate, excessive and in many cases are considered discretionary. The development of administrative and territorial management, forming self- sufficient and effective local government capacity to deliver quality public services, especially given apparent PFM weaknesses related to the allocation, prioritization and utilization of funds remains problematic. Civil service systems still face problems with high staff turnover, and difficulty in attracting staff given low wage levels and weak capacity. Development planning efforts remain highly centralized and driven by the development partners within the processes around development of the strategic documents like the NDS, LSIS and sectoral strategies. Virtually, all major development initiatives are being developed within donor supported projects (technical assistance or investment projects), follow long and tedious process of drafting and are ultimately approved by Office of the President. While Ministries play a role in this process, it is often limited to providing supporting data and a core group of experts (usually high level and with good knowledge of the system). The role of regional/local stakeholders is usually set aside and decision are “brought down” from the centre. The Parliament, while mandated to approve all development initiative, continues to serves as a “rubber stamp” for all major initiatives and programs 17 . The link between national planning and the budget remains robust in terms of timing and delivery of budgets. The development of the annual budget is an arduous task for any country and Tajikistan is no exception. While there were a few slippages in terms of budget preparation (usually during crisis years), overall budgets have always been approved on time and with participation of all levels of the Government. The Law on State Finance (adopted in 2011) is the key guiding document that outlines the provisions related to all aspects of the budget. Figure 2.13 outlines the budget process, key stages and deliverables associated with the staging and key stakeholders involved. 17 www.pbo.tj , Budget participation manual for MPs CHAPTER - 2 20 с D ec em be r 3 1 Ja nu ar y Fe br ua ry 1 M ar ch 1 M ar ch 1 5 Ap ril 1 M ay 1 Ju ne 1 Ju ne 5 Ju ly 2 5 Au gu st 1 S ep te m be r 1 S ep te m be r 2 0 O cto be r N ov em be r 1 D ec em be r 3 1 B ud ge t C ale nd ar D ec re e b y th e M in is te r of Fin an ce B ud ge t in str uc tio ns S ta ge 1 (M T B F) by th e M O F K ey M ac ro in dic ato rs an d M id -te rm s P IP b y M oE T D ba se lin es b ud ge t fo r S C IP b y M O F Id en tifi ca tio n o f bu dg et pr io ro tie s by a ll de pa rtm en ts co or din ate d b y M oF bu dg et ce ilin gs b y se cto rs b y M O F bu dg et ce ilin gs fo r a ll M AB As all oc ati on o f ex pe nd itu re ce ilin g f or M AB As (M O F) B ud ge t su bm is io ns by a ll d pts co or din ate d by M O F D ra ft b ud ge t su bm itte d t o P ar lia m en t b y M oF Ap pr ov al by th e P ar lia m en t S ig nin g i nto th e L aw b y P re sid en t Fo re ca tin g 3 ye ar re ve nu es by a ll de pa rtm en ts fo re ca sti ng 3 ye ar ex pe nd itu re s b y a ll dp ts D ra ft b ud ge t su bm itte d t o P ar lia m en t by M oF B ud ge t in stu cti on s, sta ge 2 (A nn ua l B ud ge t) - M O F 4. B ud ge t e xe cu tio n An nu al re po rt fo r t he p re vio us C Y Q 1 e xe cu tio n r ep or t by (M oF ) Q 2 ( se m i-a nn ua l bu dg et ex ec uti on re po rt) b y M oF Q 3 ( or M 9 re po rt) b y M O F 1. D ev elo pm en t o f th e M id -te rm B ud ge t F ra m ew or k a nd de ve lo pm en t o f th e d ra ft b ud ge ts 2. D is cu ss io n o f d ra ft s ta te b ud ge t p ar am ete r in te rn al bu dg et he ar in g a nd ne go tia tio ns 5. R ep or tin g o n b ud ge t e xe cu tio n 3 A pp ro va l o f th e S ta te B ud ge t L aw b y t he P ar lia m en t P ar lia m en ta ry h ea rin gin g CHAPTER - 2 Fig u re 2 .1 3 . T aji kis ta n – A n n u al b u d ge t p ro ce ss a n d M T EF So u rc e: A u th o r’s re p re se n ta tio n b as ed o n M in is tr y o f F in an ce M TE F b u d ge t c irc u la r a n d B u d ge t L aw 21 National Development Strategy and Mid-term development program is being developed to regulate PFM. At present, the work is going on development of the National Development Strategy (NDS) of Tajikistan until 2016-2030, as well as the Medium-Term Development Program of the Republic of Tajikistan for the period 2016-2020. With regards to PFM development, it is planned to introduce the program-targeted funding based on the results; Linking the budget process with the strategic planning and harmonization of sectorial policies and program budgeting; integration of investment programs such as the planning of current expenditure and investment with economic planning; implementation of the principles of fiscal decentralization and rationalization of the distribution of budget revenue sources among various levels of government. The Ministry of Finance prepares rolling 3-year fiscal planning, expenditure estimates and multi- year budgeting linked to key programs/sector strategies. Year 2012 marked the first year when the Ministry of Finance developed a Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and this covered 2013-2015. However, despite including 6 pilot sectors, line ministries appear to be weak in the application of the MTEF. There were limitations in budget planning and implementation despite extensive training efforts. Partly this could be explained by the use of over 6400 main administrators of budget allocation (MABAs) but partly the severe shocks Tajikistan has experienced 2015 have led to a number of budget revisions (revenues and expenditures). There has been little control from line ministries in terms of actual transfers from the Ministry of Finance giving rise to revenue generation challenges. The practice of advance tax payment was widespread according to various polls from the private sector – an effort that tax authorities employ to cover the revenue gap in 2015. Tajikistan has substantially improved the clarity and comprehensiveness of and political involvement in the guidance on the preparation of budget submissions. Similar to national planning organizations, political involvement in the budget preparation begins at an early stage with the office of the President, the Budgetary Commission (that included members of the parliament, committee of economics and finance). Download 0.75 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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