Long Term Secrets To Short-Term Trading

9.9 and 9. 10). 
Figure 9.8 S&P 500 Index (30-minute bars). Graphed by the "Navigator" 
(Genesis Financial Data Services). 
Figure 9.9 S&P 500 Index (30-minute bars). Graphed by the "Navigator" 
(Genesis Financial Data Services). 

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Figure 9.10 S&P 500 Index (30-minute bars). Graphed by the "Navigator" 
(Genesis Financial Data Services). 
Although Will-Spread can stand on its own, it can be used in conjunction with other known facts about 
the market. As just one example, you have read about a huge bias for stocks to rally at the first of every 
month, especially in February, March, May, July, September, October, and November. Thus one possible 
short-term strategy you could employ at the start of every month would be to take Will-Spread buy signals 
when the positive crossings occur, with special focus on the previously named months. Here is a recap of all 
such signals for 1997 starting with January. Stay with me as I "walk" and talk you through what happened 
and what you could realistically could have done using this combination of ingredients. 
January1997. Will- Spread did its thing crossing on January 2, 1997, with an entry at 744.70, staying 
positive until the negative crossing on January 6, by then the S&P rallied to 752.00 with a profit of 7.30 
points! 
February1997. On January 29, the first-of-the-month rally was clearly indicated by a positive crossing 
at a price of 774.60 with an exit two days later on the close of January 31 as Will-Spread had begun to 
deteriorate. We know this is a 2- to 3-day bias, so let's take the 13.90 profit at the end of our time window 
unless the index is particularly bullish. 

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March 1997. We did not get an entry until March 3 at 792.90. This was not much of a trade, but took 
out 1. 10 points profit with a crossing on March 4 when the S&P was trading at 794.00. 
April 1997. Oh, I just love Will-Spread. A conventional month-end trader would have bought and 
lost money. But, you and I are smarter, we do not trade just technical and seasonal stuff alone, we know 
inner-market relationships provide meaningful insights into what is going on. That is why we bypassed the 
trade. Will-Spread did not give a buy until April 7, way outside the hot zone. 
May 1997. We could see the month-end rally coming on April 28 when a bullish signal was given at 
772.40 with an exit on May 1, 1997 at 800.50. This was a quick and explosive trade for an amazing 28.10 
points profit! 
June 1997. Here comes our first losing trade: a buy was given on May 28 with a positive crossing that 
went negative just a few bars later at 851.20. I would have pitched this trade the same day at 849.00 for a 
loss of 2.3 points. But, the hot zone of month-end/start was still there, so when Will-Spread turned positive 
on May 30, there was no reason not to take the trade; we were still in the time zone. Entry price was 844.70 
with an exit on June 2 at 848.00 making up the loss on our first shot at the trade. 
July 1997. Well, we are given another lesson in humility, going long on a positive crossing on June 30 
at 896 with an exit the same day, a 6.0 point loss at 890! Wow, that was quick and ugly. But just like the end 
of june, we see another positive crossing on July 1, so we go long at 898. Our strategy is simple, wait for a 
negative crossing or two days in the trade. We wait. Will-Spread crosses to the downside just a few hours 
later at 897.80 for a .20 loss. Another crossing comes late in the day on July 1, so we reenter at 900.25 and 
hold until our sell on july 7 at 927.55, netting 21.10 points in july. 
August 1997. Along comes the first of the month, but Will-Spread is tracking in the negative area so we 
have no trade. Again, our filter has kept us out of what appeared on the surface to be bullish. As the time 
approached, we could see the fundamentals were not there to justify the trade. 
September 1997. More humility. There is a clear-cut crossing on August 29 with an equally clear-cut 
exit and loss the same day at 902.55 for our biggest loss of the year of 3.20 points. 

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But we stick with it, taking the buy signal on September 2 at 912.50 and watch a very powerful rally 
unfold lasting until September 3 when we close out the trade at 928.90, again recouping our earlier loss. 
That was close, but the combination of the time influence and inner market influence coupled to keep us in 
the black, with this 15.50 point gain +1295. 
October 1997. We had to wait until the first of the month when a crossing took place forewarning 
us a rally was on the way. There was an additional chance to buy again as Will-Spread dipped into negative 
for one bar, but with no follow-through for a sell and an immediate upturn on October 2 at 965.30, giving 
another positive crossing until time ran out with a negative crossing. The rally stopped, for us at least, at 
968.75, a 3.45 point gain. 
November 1997. This was almost too easy. The crossing came on October 31 at 919.00 with an 
equally clear exit at 947 for a very profitable trade of 28.0 points. This is how I wish it worked every 
month! 
December 1997. Another storybook trade with a positive crossing on the first of the month at 
962.50 and an exit on December 2 at 973.20. It was, as old Blue Eyes used to sing, a "very good year," 13 
total trades with 10 winners. More importantly, the net profits of 99.70 points, or $24,925, illustrate the 
validity of combining fundamentals with time influences. The time influence is always there, but without a 
valid underpinning-the stage being set on a fundamental basis-I will pass, thank you. There are too many 
good trading opportunities where we can get such high odds that there is no reason to go slumming for 
trades just because there is one element "that may work." The more the merrier, that is my adage! 

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Chapter 10 
Special Short-Term 
Situations 
History does repeat itself, just not with precision. 
It is time to develop a checklist of possible short-term trading opportunities, we can accept or reject 
each month. You can do this yourself by gleaning out of my trading opportunities that appeal to you. To 
give you a feel for doing this, I devote this chapter to setting up specific trades you should be looking for 
each month. These trades are based on times of the month and holiday 
The time-of-the-month trade is hardly a new idea. As noted earlier the concept has been known for 
years. Here are my improvements and adaptions to a long-standing market truism: stock prices rally around 
the first of the month. The light I shed on this play was to find out that Bond prices experience this same 
monthly uplift as demonstrated earlier. We will develop a winning strategy based on these insights. 
Month-End Trading in Stock Indexes 
There are now several vehicles speculators can use to catch these savings. The S&P 500 stock index 
has been the kingpin of trading stock market moves but lately, the lower margin S&P minicontract has been
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