40
Entrepreneurs without the status of legal
entity
4,689,300 1,808,400
Dekhkan
farms
4,500,000
981,600
Unemployed 597,000
287,000
Poor population groups
1,915,000
1,915,000
Labor migrants
1,000,000
480,000
TOTAL 12,960,600
5,627,600
Source: Author’s calculations
Thus, the number of potential MFO clients among businesses is estimated to be
1,964,000. These are operating subjects that can produce demand for microfinancing
services. The clientele base from the least protected groups of the population is 2,682,000.
The size of clientele base of the most social sector
in Uzbekistan, agriculture, is 981,600.
In general, 2.7 million people from the least protected sections of the population are
ready potentially to launch their own business, which amounts to approximately 27% of
domestic labor force.
Total estimated demand for microfinance resources
For this calculation, two cost estimates of demand for microfinancing services were
calculated
54
:
1. Cost estimate of the demand based on current amount of loan equivalent of $146. This
estimate makes up 914.2 billion soums ($ 821.6 million).
2. Cost estimate of the demand based on loan amount equivalent to $500. According to the
results
of sociological poll, right now about half of MFO clients wanted to receive this
very size of microloans. In this case, cost estimate makes up 3,131.1 billion soums ($
2,813.8 million).
Short-term outlook: the first cost estimate
The aggregate current demand for financial resources in Uzbekistan is about 914.2
billion soums. It is a rather significant sum, which is equal to 5.8% of the forecasted level of
Uzbekistan’s GDP in 2005. At present a total of all financial institutions
operating in the
country meet only 9.2% of the current demand.
As of the beginning of May 2005, non-government non-commercial microfinance
organizations (NGO-MFO) have issued microcredits in the amount of 4.2 billion soums ($3.9
million) that amounts to only 0.5% of current demand or 0.04% of GDP in 2004.
After adopting legislative measures proposed in the report to encourage the
development of microfinance organizations (MFO), it is planned
to increase the credit
portfolio of MFOs up to 15.5 billion soums, or 0.1% of GDP by the end of 2005. In order to
achieve
this goal, based on the average number of clients per MFO currently equal to 2,000
people, 21-22 new microfinance organizations must be established. Thus, the total number of
MFOs should reach 35-36 organizations.
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