New Strategies for Emerging Domestic Sovereign Bond Markets in the Global

G

RAPH 

12:

 

D

ECREASE IN 

O

RIGINAL 

S

IN IN 

L

ATIN 

A

MERICAN

 

E

MERGING 

M

ARKETS

 

Estimated domestic original sin 

(end of period)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

Venezuela Brazil

Chile

Colombia Mexico

Peru

Or

igin

a

l S

in

 I

n

d

e

2000

2004

 

Source: OECD Development Centre, 2007; based on Mehl, A. and J. Reynaud (2005)

. 

 

Also in Asia this trend can be observed. There governments amassed 

nearly $3 trillion dollars (2.7 billion by mid 2006) of foreign exchange reserves. 

With such of large pool of liquidity, they are now looking to diversify their 

portfolio investments beyond US Treasuries and other OECD securities. 

Consequently, important progress has been made in developing the once 

neglected domestic bond markets, in a region that has been traditionally relying 

on bank finance. While Asian local-currency bond markets are still tiny and 

unsophisticated,

22

 with a the total value of the outstanding bonds amounting for 

less than $2 trillion at the end of the 2000’s, 

23

 the interest for these instruments is 

increasing. Expanding local bond markets is also perceived as an insurance 

against another financial crisis like the one experienced in 1997-98 when 

Thailand, South Korea and many other Asian countries were quite vulnerable due 

to an excessive reliance on short-term foreign currency borrowing and cross-

border bank financing. International organisations such as the Asian Development 

Bank (ADB) and OECD

24

 are encouraging and supporting efforts and initiatives 

to develop local-currency fixed-income markets. The ADB has raised local-

                                                      

22

 

This is in part due the relatively low borrowing requirements of Asian governments.  

23

  

According to BIS statistics.  

24

  

Asian governments are active participants in two OECD-led Global Forums (the annual OECD 

Global Debt Management Forum and the annual OECD-World Bank-IMF Global Bond 

Forum), while there is a separate OECD-China Forum on Public Debt Management and 

Government Securities Markets.  

22

Global Economy Journal, Vol. 7 [2007], Iss. 2, Art. 2

http://www.bepress.com/gej/vol7/iss2/2

---

currency bonds in China, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia. More work is 

needed in view of the modest size of these markets, relatively low liquidity and in 

some cases also poor transparency. Reliable information is scarce with too few 

rating agencies covering local companies. However, Asian policymakers have 

indicated that they are determined to continue to develop deeper, more liquid and 

transparent local bond markets.  

In the wake of the crises of the 1990s, a consensus therefore emerged that 

both a sound banking system and a liquid domestic capital market are key 

elements of a robust financial infrastructure. This essential condition should be in 

place so as to allow emerging financial markets to participate in the international 

financial system without making them excessively vulnerable to large, 

unanticipated withdrawals and speculative attacks. Various studies have presented 

evidence that the degree of financial sector development is a key determinant of 

an economy’s volatility and vulnerability to financial crises.

25

 These is also a 

growing consensus that emerging economies should avoid excessive foreign-

currency debt levels, while continuing to boost both the issuance in local bond 

markets as well as international issuances denominated in their own currencies.

26

 

In the remainder of this section we shall explain in more detail why a more robust 

financial infrastructure is crucial for emerging markets, starting with a simple 

theoretical framework.   

 The following simple two-period model provides a stylised picture of the 

impact of the degree of underdevelopment on volatility by highlighting some of 

the key mechanisms and channels involved.

27

 In period t=1, a firm receives a 

random cash flow amount (

θ ) and decides how much to invest in working capital 

(W) to produce output (Y) in period t=2:  

α

α

α

β

/

1

)

(

W

K

Y

+

=