The market wizards conversations with
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41775536-Market-Wizards (1)
Part III-
A Little Bit of Everything 108 James B. Rogers, Jr.-Buying Value and Selling Hysteria Jim Rogers began trading the stock market with a paltry $600 in 1968. In 1973, he formed the Quantum Fund with partner George Soros. The Quantum Fund proved to be one of the best-performing hedge funds, and in 1980, having amassed a small fortune, Rogers retired. "Retired" is the word Rogers uses to describe the management of his personal portfolio, an endeavor that requires considerable ongoing research. His retirement also includes teaching investment courses at the Columbia University Graduate School of Business. I was eager to interview Rogers because of his stellar reputation as one of the shrewdest investors of our time and because his comments on television financial interview shows and in the print media always seemed to strike a note of common sense with rare clarity. Since I did not know Rogers, I sent him a letter requesting an interview, explaining that I was working on a book on great traders. I included a copy of my previous book on the futures markets, which I inscribed with a quotation from Voltaire that I deemed particularly appropriate: "Common sense is not so common." Rogers called a few days later to thank me for the book and to indicate his willingness to participate. "However," he cautioned, "I am probably not the person you want to interview. I often hold positions for many years. Furthermore, I'm probably one of the world's worst traders. I never get in at the right time." He was referring to the distinction I had made in my letter, indicating that I was interested in great traders rather than great investors. As I use the term, a "trader" would be primarily concerned with which direction the stock market was heading, while an "investor" would concentrate on selecting stocks with the best chance of outperforming the market overall. In other words, the investor was always long, while the trader might be long or short. I explained my use of these terms to Rogers and stressed that he was indeed the type of person I wished to interview. I arrived at Rogers' home, a baronial, eclectically furnished townhouse, on a fall-like spring afternoon. The atmosphere seemed more reminiscent of a comfortable English manor than a home in New York City. In fact, if my only exposure to New York City was that afternoon's conversation with Rogers in his antique-filled sitting room, with its pleasant views of the Hudson, I would conclude that New York City was an eminently peaceful place to live. After greeting me, Rogers immediately stated, "I still think you have the wrong man." Once again, he was referring to the fact that he did not consider himself to be a trader. This is the note on which the following interview begins. As I told you in our phone conversation, I don't consider myself a trader. I remember when I went to buy German stocks in 1982,1 said to the broker, "I want you to buy me X, Y, and Z stocks." The broker, who didn't know me, asked, "What do I do next?" I said, "You buy the stocks and send me the confirmations." He asked, "Do you want me to send you some research?" I said, "Please don't do that." He asked, "Do you want me to send you opinions?" I said, "No, no, don't." He asked, "Do you want me to call you with prices?" I said, "No, don't even give me prices, because if you do, once I see that these stocks have doubled and tripled, I might be tempted to sell them. I plan to own German stocks for at least three years, because I think you are about to have the biggest bull market you've had in two or three generations." Needless to say, the broker was dumbfounded; he thought I was a madman. Now I don't consider that trading; it was determining that there was about to be a major change in a market and taking a position. By the way, I got that one right. I bought the German stocks at the end of 1982 and sold them out in late 1985 and early 1986. Download 5.03 Kb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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