The national bureau of asian research

The Shifting Balance of Leverage and Russian Suspicion
Chinese analysts acknowledge that the Sino-Russian relationship has become more asymmetric 
in the last decade, and Moscow, as a result, has become somewhat more suspicious about China’s 
motives and ultimately its leverage. Chinese leaders are well aware of these and other Russian 
concerns, including worries about Chinese influence in the Russian Far East. Fundamentally, 
China is comfortable with this emerging asymmetry. Xi actively uses his personal relationship 
with Putin to manage this dynamic and lessen Russian anxieties. Chinese leaders are even happy 
to maintain the facade of Russia as its “big brother” as long as it results in more and cheaper access 
to energy resources and military equipment. The question is how long China can maintain this 
dynamic without it undermining the long-term basis for closer cooperation. 
Limits on Arms Sales and Defense Cooperation
Another limitation is that Russia, though still an important source of technology in some key 
areas, has less to offer China than it once did as a source of advanced military hardware because 
of improvements in China’s defense industries. Beijing is also well aware that Moscow has been 
frustrated and concerned by Chinese reverse engineering of systems sold to China. This pillar of the 
relationship may be reaching its limits as Russia sells China its most advanced defense platforms, 
equipment, and technologies. Another limitation is the potential for growing competition between 
Chinese and Russian arms exporters in some niche areas of the international arms market. Russian 
defense sales to Vietnam and other countries in Asia are an interesting area to watch, as they suggest 
some differing views on diplomatic issues of consequence to both countries. 
18 
See, for example, Li Shuyin, “Dui Zhong E junshi hezuo de lishi kaocha yu sikao” [Historical Investigation and Reflection on China-Russia 
Military Cooperation], Journal of Russian Studies, no. 3 (2016): 5–9.
19 
Wang and Luo, “Building a New Type of Sino-Russian Relationship,” 93.
20 
Ibid., 90.
21 
Ibid., 89.

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11
CHINESE PERSPECTIVES ON THE SINO-RUSSIAN RELATIONSHIP 
u
MEDEIROS AND CHASE
That said, the cooperation and coordination between the two militaries is expanding. China 
is happy to learn from Russian operational capabilities, while both countries enjoy the strategic 
signals associated with their growing joint military operations all over the world.
Diplomatic Divergences
Chinese and Russian views on global affairs and each other’s role in managing their primary 
spheres of influence—Eurasia for Russia and the Asia-Pacific for China—converge more than 
they diverge. This convergence in visions of order and architecture is what provides the basis for 
continued, albeit episodic, cooperation on sensitive diplomatic issues. 
Russia’s penchant to take the lead on controversial issues of marginal Chinese influence 
and relevance, such as Syria, offers a similar point of convergence. Yet there are limits to such 
cooperation. For example, Russia tends to be more concerned with the regional implications of 
a nuclear North Korea, whereas China may be coming to the view that it can live with a nuclear 
North Korea as long as it does not proliferate or cause too much instability. 
Similarly, Russian and Chinese positions on territorial question are not perfectly aligned. 
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and invasion of Ukraine clearly violated China’s ironclad 
commitment to the inviolability of a country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. Yet China 
was careful in its public and private diplomacy not to accentuate this tension. Similarly, Russia 
is agnostic about most of China’s claims in the South China Sea in an effort to avoid alienating 
China and Vietnam, as well as other claimants such as the Philippines and Malaysia. The latter are 
both potential recipients of Russian arms. There is little evidence, however, to indicate that these 
policy differences are a source of any major tension in the relationship.