The national bureau of asian research
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SR66 Russia-ChinaRelations July2017
Initiative (Seattle: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2017), 151–75.
9 Simon Denyer, “China Gloats as Europeans Rush to Join Asian Bank,” Washington Post, March 18, 2015, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ world/china-gloats-as-europeans-rush-to-join-asian-bank/2015/03/18/82139f88-9915-4a81-81af-ae6eacf528c7_story.html. 10 Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Remarks on India and the United States: A Vision for the 21st Century” (speech given at Anna Centenary Library, Chennai, July 20, 2011), https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/07/168840.htm. 11 Nadège Rolland, through an analysis of Chinese primary sources, interprets the Belt and Road Initiative as an attempt to “create a 21st-century version of a Sinocentric regional order across the Eurasian continent.” Rolland, China’s Eurasian Century? 178. 44 NBR SPECIAL REPORT u JULY 2017 public remarks. 12 Not surprisingly, it is with respect to the implicit dimension of the Belt and Road Initiative that countries have differing views and interests. 13 The United States wants to reduce Central Asia’s dependence on Russia, to link the region more closely to the democratic market economies of Europe, and to promote democracy and respect for human rights. It also believes that tighter trade and transportation links between South Asia and Central Asia will be helpful in stabilizing Afghanistan, and it is mindful of Eurasia’s importance as an alternative route for logistical support for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan. Russia still has a proprietary interest in its former territories in Central Asia and wants to retain a predominant influence, especially in the security sphere. China, for its part, already plays a significant trade and investment role in Central Asia and is keenly interested in the oil and gas resources. It has generally respected Russia’s security concerns in the region and has kept its focus on trade and energy. As discussed in the previous section, Sino-Russian relations have been friendly and cooperative in recent decades, and the two countries have worked well together in the SCO. However, in addition to China’s economic interests in Central Asia, Xi’s proposal in May 2014 for the establishment of a new security and cooperation mechanism in Asia demonstrated that Beijing also views the region from a security perspective that is broader than its desire to block terrorist elements from infiltrating Xinjiang. Implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative would further Beijing’s declared intention to become a major global power. 14 All the elements of a new Great Game are thus present in Central Asia, although the cast of players is different. The United States is in large measure a bit player in this scenario. The Central Asian countries have welcomed its presence as a means of defending their newly gained independence against potential future encroachments by more powerful neighbors such as Russia and China. Nevertheless, they are clearheaded about the distinction between countries with permanent interests in the region, such as Russia and China, and those like the United States that have a significant near-term presence but can cut and run whenever they are unwilling to pay the costs of continued involvement. This is not to say that the United States lacks important interests in Central Asia. However, these interests are largely derivative of far more important U.S. interests with respect to Russia, China, India, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and even Iran. It is difficult under these circumstances for the United States to have a coherent and closely integrated policy approach to Central Asia, especially when it must address initiatives by major outside powers such as China. Nevertheless, both Washington and Beijing profess their support for the goal of fending off a dangerous drift toward a destructive Cold War style of rivalry by strengthening areas of cooperation wherever possible. Several measures would increase the likelihood that such an approach will be successful: • The infrastructure needs of Central Asia are greater than the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank can meet. 15 The AIIB can play a useful supplemental role. If the United 12 Beijing has launched a soft-power, English-language campaign designed to portray the project as nonthreatening—even employing Western child actors to sing songs and listen to bedtime stories about the initiative. See “ ‘Belt and Road Bedtime Stories’ Episode 1,” China Daily, May 8, 2017, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/beltandroadinitiative/2017-05/08/content_29255516.htm; “ ‘Belt and Road Bedtime Stories’ Episode 2,” Download 0.72 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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