The State of the tanker industry imsf singapore 17 April 2007


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The State of the tanker industry IMSF Singapore 17 April 2007


The State of the tanker Industry

  • High safety

  • Low pollution

  • Low age

  • High earnings – until now

  • Surplus of tonnage building up



Pollution rate 1000 ts spilt per bn tonne miles carried



Tanker accidents and trade



Tanker incidents by cause 1978-1Q07

  • Number incidents



Tanker incidents by cause 2006



Accidental pollution from tankers largest accidents and age



Total losses, tankers and bulkers



  • Tanker Market



Oil price and VLCC freight rates



VLCC spot and break-even rates



VLCC break-even rates



Oil price and freight rate



Gasoline price at the pump



World oil demand - mbd

  • mbd



Oil consumption per capita

  • litres



Oil consumption if world populations consumed oil as Americans

  • mbd



Seaborne oil trade and Middle East oil production

  • mbd



Seaborne oil trade and tanker fleet



Tanker productivity – tonne-miles/dwt



Sources of Asian oil imports



Sources of European oil imports - mbd

  • mbd



Sources of US oil imports - mbd

  • mbd



Increase in world oil demand in ME*, USA, China and ROW**



World oil supply - mbd



  • Tanker Supply



Tanker contracting



Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out tankers above 30,000 dwt



Phase out SH tankers above 30,000 dwt



VLCCs max phase out ,+ 4.5% trade increase, assume balanced marked end 2006



Suezmaxes max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006



Conversion to DH



Tanker deliveries, removals, min phase-out



Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out



Tanker fleet double-hull development



Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull



Tanker deliveries, removals, max phase-out



Conclusion



Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwt min phase out, + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006



VLCC fleet development

  • Number



Aframaxes max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006



Aframaxes max phase out + 4.5% trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006



Tankers 30,000 - 59,999 dwt min phase out + 6 % trade increase , assume balanced marked end 2006



Oil import by Panamaxes - share of double hull



Oil import by Suezmaxes - share of double hull




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