Thinking, Fast and Slow

23: The Outside View
inside view and the outside view: The labels are often misunderstood.
Numerous authors believed that the correct terms were “insider view” and
“outsider view,” which are not even close to what we had in mind.
very different answers: Dan Lovallo and Daniel Kahneman, “Timid
Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking,”
Management Science 39 (1993): 17–31. Daniel Kahneman and Dan
Lovallo, “Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives’
Decisions,” 
Harvard Business Review 81 (2003): 56–63.
“Pallid” statistical information: Richard E. Nisbett and Lee D. Ross,
Human Inference: Strategies and Shortcomings of Social Judgment
(Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall, 1980).
impersonality of procedures: Fo {i>How Doctors Think (New York:
Mariner Books, 2008), 6.
planning fallacy: Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, “Intuitive
Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures,” 
Management Science 12
(1979): 313–27.
Scottish Parliament building: Rt. Hon. The Lord Fraser of Carmyllie, “The
Holyrood 
Inquiry, 
Final 
Report,” 
September 
8, 
2004,
www.holyroodinquiry.org/FINAL_report/report.htm
.
did not become more reliant on it: Brent Flyvbjerg, Mette K. Skamris
Holm, and Søren L. Buhl, “How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in
Public Works Projects?” 
Journal of the American Planning Association
71 (2005): 131–46.

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survey of American homeowners: “2002 Cost vs. Value Report,”
Remodeling, November 20, 2002.
completion times: Brent Flyvbjerg, “From Nobel Prize to Project
Management: Getting Risks Right,” 
Project Management Journal 37
(2006): 5–15.
sunk-cost fallacy: Hal R. Arkes and Catherine Blumer, “The Psychology of
Sunk Cost,” 
Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 35
(1985): 124–40. Hal R. Arkes and Peter Ayton, “The Sunk Cost and
Concorde Effects: Are Humans Less Rational Than Lower Animals?”
Psychological Bulletin 125 (1998): 591–600.