Topic: Central Asia mountains ecosystem services

The effects of climate change

Weather records confirm that the surface temperatures in Central Asia are rising. In the mountains of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, temperatures have increased by 0.3°C–1.2°C in the last 50–70 years, depending on the location. Almost everywhere, climate warming in winter is more pronounced than in other seasons. A slight increase in precipitation has occurred in the mountains of Uzbekistan, the northern Tien Shan and the Western Pamir. In contrast, the central parts of the Tien Shan and the Eastern Pamir have experienced decreases in precipitation. Under likely climate change scenarios for Central Asia, average temperatures are expected to increase by 1°C–3°C by 2050, and, if the global greenhouse gas emissions are unmitigated, could rise by 3°C–6°C by the end of the century. Scientists also project that climate change will reduce precipitation in the southern parts of Central Asia. The precise local impact these weather changes may have, especially in the mountains, is unknown. The health effects of climate change can be serious. Climate warming and heat stress contribute to cardiovascular dis ease, increased risk of malaria outbreaks and intestinal infections (typhoid, salmonellosis, dysentery, helminthiasis) due to heavy rainfall combined with inappropriate communal water supply and sanitation. As independence altered the political landscape, global warming is changing the physical landscape, and the points of reference that define some borders in mountain regions are on the move.

Central Asian mountain dwellers and hikers have already reported visible changes in frequently visited glaciers. Many mountain paths that were reliable 30 years ago have disappeared or changed beyond recognition. The surface of many glaciers has thinned and their ice bodies are increasingly covered with lakes and debris. Numerous low-altitude glacier