UCLA Transportation - Land Use - Environment Connection Symposium Global Energy and Climate ChangeNew Vehicles, New Fuels II: Exploring the Alternatives UCLA Lake Arrowhead Conference CenterOctober 23, 2006Steve ShafferOffice of Agriculture and Environmental StewardshipCalifornia Department of Food and Agriculture
Overview What can biofuels be made from?How are they produced?What are these biofuels – now and in the future? What must we consider?Summary and conclusions
Feedstock Sources Conventional crops – corn, sorghum, sugar cane, sugar beets, soybeans, canola/rapeseed, other oil seed crops, trees –pine, fir, poplarResiduals – Agriculture, urban, forestry- Manure, trees and vines, straws, food precessing
- Green, food, paper and cardboard, wood
- Mill, pulp, slash, thinnings
Dedicated crops – grasses, trees, other plants, aquatic systems (algae) and other microbial systems
Biomass Energy Potential
Feedstock Quantity USDA/DOE – 1.3 billion tons/years – optimistic?California – Biomass Collaborative- Over 80 million tons produced
- Potential sustainable use - 30 million tons
- By 2050 - 48 million tons
- Current use – 5 million tons
Biomass Energy Potential 1 billion tons of biomass =- 35 billion to 70 billion gallons of gasoline equivalent (GGE)
- 1 million MWe
Conversion Processes CombustionGasificationPyrolysisThermal depolymerizationHydrolysis – chemical and enymaticSynthesisExtractionFermentationConcentration – distillation and filtration
Fuels Alcohols – ethanol, methanol, butanol, etc.Ethers – MTBE, ETBE, TAME, DMEBiodiesel – esterified plant and animal fatsBio-derived oils – hydrocarbons – bio-oil, Fischer-Tropsch diesel.Biomethane – purified biogas.Electricity – combustion, gasification, fuel cell.Hydrogen – secondary product reformed from above, or primary production e.g. algae.
Global Trends Human PopulationArable landWater supplies and useEnergy supplies and useAtmospheric chemistry - (GHGs) and criteria pollutantsBiodiversity
United Nations Data 1997 Report by the Commission on Sustainable DevelopmentPopulation TrendsLand Use TrendsWater Use TrendsFood Supply Trends
Population The current global human population stands at six billion. It is expected to grow to 8.3 billion by 2025 and to 9.3 billion by 2050.
Global Water Consumption
Land and Water 20% of the world’s cropland is irrigated, but produces over 40% of the food supply.The UN report estimates that to provide a healthy diet to the world’s population in 2025, a 50% to 100% increase in water for food production will be needed. The bulk of the increase in food production will have to come from irrigated land.A series of local and regional water crises with global implications may put global food supplies in jeopardy.
US CO2 Emissions
Issues – (Sustainability) Life cycle cost analyses- Wells-to-Wheels; LEM/LCA; cradle-to-grave;
- Wang; Delucchi; Kammen and others
Energy quality/utility- Density
- Flexibility
- Transportability
- Storability
- Efficiency
Issues - continued Multiple objectives management- A new definition of agriculture – food, feed, fiber, flowers, fuel, fauna,
Public Policy- Agriculture – crop subsidies; land use; food vs. fuel
- Energy – supply, cost, security
- Environmental – climate change; forest health; urban waste management; AQ; WQ; soil conservation; biodiversity
- Economic – balance of trade; local jobs and taxes
- Geopolitical – national security
Issues – still more Technology- Genetically modified organisms
- Nanotechnology
- Competition – nuclear and (hopefully) clean coal; wind and solar
- Environmental justice and NIMBY
…and Energy Efficiency
Conclusions Biofuels will contribute to sustainable energy supplies – how much and in what form are yet to be determined.Several Keys –- Informed policy based on continuous research and development
- Strategies that achieve multiple objectives and benefits
- Public policies that recognize multiple benefits and internalize external disbenefits
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