Updated situation in the drc h. J. Boshoff


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UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

  • H. J. BOSHOFF

  • AND

  • R. CORNWELL


SCOPE

  • BACKGROUND

  • AFTER SUN CITY

  • PRETORIA DEAL

  • CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION

  • INCIDENTS

  • MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL

  • CONCLUSION



BACKGROUND

  • 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT

  • THREE YEARS LATER AND THE PARTIAL FAILURE OF THE ICD(SUN CITY) DID NOT END THE FIGHTING IN THE KIVUS

  • MONUC NOT ABLE TO IMPLEMENT DDRRR

  • PRETORIA DEAL BRINGS NEW HOPE OF PEACE



AFTER SUN CITY

  • AFTER SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATIONS AT SUN CITY A PARTIAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN KABILA AND BEMBA

  • END OF THE ICD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF LUSAKA AGREEMENT

  • RCD-G AND RWANDA LEFT IN THE COLD

  • THE ISSUE OF DISARMING OF RWANDAN LIBERATION ARMY(ALIR) IS CRUCIAL, NO NEGOTIATIONS ON POWER SHARING AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES WILL SUCCEED UNLESS THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED

  • THE PRETORIA DEAL IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL WILL FROM RWANDA AND DRC GOVT TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE.

  • THIS CAN LEAD TO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALL ROLE PLAYERS, POSSIBLY FACILITATED BY PRESIDENT MBEKI



PRETORIA DEAL

  • THE PRETORIA DEAL ADDRESSES ONE OF THE KEY ASPECTS OF LUSAKA, THE DISARMING OF ALIR FORCES

  • PRETORIA DEAL PROVIDED AN INDICATION OF THE POLITICAL WILL FOR DISARMAMENT FROM THE DRC AND RWANDA, MONITORED BY A THIRD PARTY(UN AND SOUTH AFRICA)

  • IT IS FORESEEN THAT MONUC WILL IMPLEMENT THE DEAL AS PART OF PHASE 3, DDRRR

  • THE KEY TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME INTER ALIA:

    • FINALISATION OF MONUC PHASE 3 WITHIN 15 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
    • ESTABLISHMENT AND OPERATIONALISATION OF ASSEMBLY POINTS WITHIN 25 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
    • DDRRR OF ALIR TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 90 DAYSOF SIGNATURE
    • WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS WITHIN 90 DAYS OF SIGNATURE


PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

  • ADMISSION BY DRC GOVT OF SUPPORT TO ALIR AND COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATE WITH MONUC TO DISARM THESE FORCES

  • DRC TO RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL OVER TERRITORIES PRESENTLY OCCUPIED BY RPA AND RCD-G, RWANDA INTERPRETATION IS THAT MONUC WILL REPLACE AND MONITOR THIS AREA

  • SECURITY CURTAIN

  • ISSUE OF TRACKING DOWN AND DISARMING ARMED GROUPS EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT IS BEYOND THE MANDATE OF MONUC.

  • RESPONSIBILITY OF DRC GOV IN CO-OPERATION WITH MONUC AND JMC IN TERRITORY UNDER DRC CONTROL. MOST FORCES DEPLOYED IN AREAS OUTSIDE. RCD-G DENIED DRC GOVT IF NOT PART OF INTEGRATED DEFENCE FORCE.

  • SOUTH AFRICA AS PART OF THIRD PARTY TO IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND VERIFY THE DEAL



PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

  • SECRETARIAT ALREADY IN KINSHASA

  • ISSUE OF UN MANDATE, STILL UNCHANGED

  • TIME SCALES ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, RATHER A SEQUENTIAL PROCESS, EACH STEP WILL REQUIRE THE PRIOR COMPLETION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE

    • DISARMING AND DISMANTLING OF INTERHAMWE AND EX-FAR ON D+10
    • DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL FORCE LEVELS BY D+15
    • WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS, BEGINNING ON D+45
  • THE CAPACITY OF MONUC, NEEDS 4 TASK FORCES TO EXECUTE PHASE 3

  • PRESIDENT MBEKI PLANS TO GET THE POLITICAL PROCESS GOING IN THE DRC



CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION



MONUC DEPLOYMENT





REBEL DEPLOYMENT



REBEL GROUPS STRENGTH

  • RCD-GOMA: 15 000

  • MLC: 10 000

  • RCD-K-ML: 2 000

  • RCD - N: 3 000



FOREIGN FORCES DEPLOYMENT





MILITARY ACTIVITIES 17 TO 29 AUG 2002

  • SECTOR 1

    • MLC TROOPS MOVED FROM BASAKUSU TO ISIRO BY ANTONOV
  • SECTOR 2

    • LOW LEVEL AIRDROP OF AK 47 AND AMMO IN THE MANDRO AREA(15 KM EAST OF BUNIA) FROM BURUNDI
    • 14 AUG 16 CIVILANS AND 6 SOLDIERS WERE KILLED AT BOGORO(25 KMS SW OF BUNIA
    • UPC MILITIA CAPTURE A VILLAGE 60 KMS SW OF BUNIA


CONT

  • SECTOR 3

    • SHOOTING INCIDENTS IN BUKAVU, NORTH OF FIZI, PEPA AND PWETO
    • LOW LEVEL MAI-MAI VIOLENCE NEAR KINDU, 13 MAI-MAI WERE KILLED IN CLASHES WITH RPA 40 KM FROM KINDU ON KALEMI ROAD
    • 20 AUG SHOOTING CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG FROM THE OUTSKIRTS OF KINDU, RCD-G REINFORCED KINDU WITH 2 BATTALIONS, ONE FROM GOMA AND ONE COMPOSITE BATTALION
    • RCD-N AND UPC(HEMA MILITIA) ALLIANCE COULD DESTABILISE THE EAST


CONT

  • RCD – N VERSUS RCD – K/ML

    • RCD – N REINFORCED HEAVILY BY MLC PUSHED INTO ORIENTALE PROVINCE.
    • ON THE ISIRO MUNGBERE AXIS RCD – N RECAPTURED MUNGBERE WITH 1 X BN WITH THE INTENTION OF ADVANCING ON DURA
    • ON THE ISIRO –DUNGU ROAD, RCD – N HAS RETAKEN GANGA AND INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO FARADJE AND THEN LINK UP WITH THE TROOPS ON THE MUNGBERE AXIS
    • ON THE ISIRO – WAMBA AXIS RCD – N CONTROLLED WAMBA AND HAD ADVANCE TO BAYANGA IN THE DIRECTION OF NIA - NIA,
  • ZDF WITHDRAWL

    • 15 AUG, D COY 13 SADC BN WITHDREW FROMILEBO TO KANANGA AND WAS REPLACED BT FAC
    • ON 19 AUG A COY FROM ILEBO JOINED THE KANANGA BN
    • ON 22 AUG 1st MECH BN WITHDREW FROM ZEWE AIRPORT TO MBUJI MAYI


CONT

  • UPDF WITHDRAWL

  • RWANDAN MOVEMENT

    • 10 000 TROOPS MOVET INTO ITURI PROVINCE
    • 16 KM FROM LUBERO
    • 1000 RPA TROOPS SEIZING KASUO, 30 KM FROM LUBERO


MONUC PHASE 3



GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF MONUC DDRRR PROGRAMME IN THE DRC

  • VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT

  • LINKS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE PEACE PROCESS

    • DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES
    • WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN ARMIES
    • INTER CONGOLESE DIALOGUE
  • COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES

  • COMMUNITY PROGRAMMES

  • COOPERATION WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS

  • TARGET AREA FOR DDRRR

    • EX FAR
    • INTERHAMWE
    • ALIR 1
    • ALIR 2


CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

  • STAGE 1: TRANSITIONAL OPERATIONS.

    • DEPLOYMENT OF COMMAND AND CONTROL, LOGISTIC, ENGINEERING AND GUARD ASSETS TO KINDU
    • THEREAFTER THE DEPLOYMENT OF ‘TASK FORCE I’ TO KINDU FOR DEPLOYMENT INTO STAGE 1 AREA OF OPERATIONS, FORWARD HQ IN KINDU
    • FORCE NOT BIGGER THAN 2500
  • STAGE 2: ASSISTANCE TO THE D3 PROGRAMME.

    • DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE INITIAL DEPLOYMENT IN CREATING CONDITIONS OF CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY TO EMBARKING ON MEANINGFUL D3 ACTIVITY
    • SWIFT BUILD-UP OF TASK FORCES 2-4 IN STAGE 2 AREA OF OPERATIONS (NOT TO EXCEED 7000)
  • STAGE 3: SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS.

    • SITUATION NOT YET CLEAR ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SCOPE AND SCALE OF SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS BUT THESE WILL BE UNDERPINNED BY THE FOLLOWING KEY CONCEPTS


UPDATE ON PHASE 3

  • KISANGANI OFFICE DEPLOYED AND FULLY OPERATIONAL

  • DATABASE AND INITIAL PICTURE OF THE ARMED GROUP SETUP

  • RECCE IN KISANGANI AND KINDU PERFORMED

  • 1ST INFORMATION CAMPAIGN PREPARED AND LAUNCHED

  • DDRRR DIVISION DEPLOYED

  • KISANGANI GUARD UNIT DEPLOYED

  • BROAD INFO CAMPAIGN STARTED

  • KINDU UNIT DEPLOYED

  • LOCATION OF DDRRR CAMPS IDENTIFIED





MONUC AND THE PRETORIA DEAL

  • THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MONUC STRUCTURE

  • MONUC PHASE 3 WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTIVITY

  • THE THIRD PARTY SECRETARIAT (SA AND UN) HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN KINSHASA

  • THE SECRETARIAT COORDINATION MECHANISM WITH MONUC HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED

  • SOUTH AFRICA WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FIRST TASK FORCE



CONCLUSION

  • INTERLOCKING PROCESSES TO SUCCEED:




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