Uva-dare (Digital Academic Repository) Ethno-territorial conflict and coexistence in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Fereydan
part of Central Asia, where the prevalent type of ethno-geographic
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- Bu sahifa navigatsiya:
- Step 4: Experimenting with T
- Step 5: Analysis with the inclusion of A, D, B, M, F, and R
- Step 6: Analysis with the inclusion of A, D, B, M, F, S, and G
- Step 7: Splitting contiguity
- Step 8: Analysis of the encounters in the Russian Federation
part of Central Asia, where the prevalent type of ethno-geographic
configuration is the mosaic type. That equation informs us that for an ethno-territorial encounter to lead to ethno-territorial conflict, it needs to be located outside the Russian Federation (f) and in a mosaic type of ethno-geographical configuration (M), and that at least one ethno- territorial group should not be titular, which in this context means that the subordinated group should not possess territorial autonomy within the host republic/state (a). But on the other hand, the subordinated ethno- territorial group needs to have transborder dominance (B). In other words, it needs to be contiguous to a territory in which its kinfolk is titular and is three times larger in number than its overlords in the host republic/state. In fact, there is logic to this: contiguity to an ethnic kinfolk that is three times larger in population than the titulars in the host country/republic compensates for the lack of possession of territorial autonomy. Hypothetically, in conflict formulas, transborder dominance (B) may go hand in hand with the titular status of both ethno-territorial groups (A) when the subordinated ethno-territorial group possesses territorial autonomy in its host country/republic. In reality, however, this situation does not appear in any ethno-territorial encounter. In addition, the absence of traumatic peak experiences (t) in the equation seems to be caused by the empirical data—i.e. is contingent upon the real existing cases—and cannot be supported reasonably by theoretical argumentation. Although hypothetically possible, there are no such encounters in the dataset in which such a combination appears. In other words, the result is contingent upon the fact that in this study no “traumatized” ethno-territorial encounters exist in which transborder dominance (B) is present.
The second equation (8) informs us that ethno-territorial encounters located in a mosaic area (M) outside the Russian Federation (f), in which both ethno-territorial groups are titulars (A) without having experienced a traumatic peak experience (t), and in which the subordinated ethno-territorial group is contiguous to a territory in which their kinfolk is titular (G), lead to ethno-territorial conflicts (C). In addition to the above-mentioned contingency of the absence of transborder dominance (b), it is strange that in “non-traumatized” ethno- territorial encounters (t) the titulars must have no demographic majority in 305
their respective homelands (d), while theoretically this condition contributes to a positive outcome. It is not totally clear why the Armenian–Azeri ethno-territorial encounter in Azerbaijan is very different from the Georgian–Abkhazian and Georgian–Ossetian ethno-territorial encounters in Georgia and the Tajik–Pamiri ethno-territorial encounter in Tajikistan. The case of Abkhazia is the only one in which the subordinated ethno-territorial group possesses no demographic majority in the territory in which it is titular. In addition, it is ambiguous to what extent the case of Armenians is different from that of Abkhazians. Both of these ethnic groups have experienced trauma in the past, but the Abkhazian trauma experience could not be qualified as a traumatic peak experience according to the criteria of this study. A similar case is that of the Yezidi traumatic-peak experience, which, like the Armenian case, also occurred in the Ottoman Empire. Nevertheless, as the only ethno- territorial encounter with Yezidis in the dataset is the one between them and Armenians, this issue can be dealt with, implicitly, by dealing with the Armenian one. The main reason that the Armenians, as opposed to the Abkhazians, are specified as traumatized in this study is because the Armenian Genocide occurred in the 20 th century, while the Abkhazian deportations proceeded in the 19 th century. On the other hand, the Ossetians in Georgia (South Ossetia) also possessed titular demographic dominance (D) without being traumatized (t). Therefore, it could be expected that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could also be explained without Armenians being traumatized (t). The case of Armenian–Azeri ethno-territorial conflict in Azerbaijan requires more investigation, and it will be examined further before the results of analysis with the inclusion of other conditions are reported.
To investigate the aforementioned issue I made a new dataset, in which it is hypothetically assumed that Armenians have not had a traumatic peak experience and in which the condition experiencing a traumatic peak experience (t) is (experimentally) absent in all encounters in which one of the ethno-territorial groups are Armenians. After this experiment, the dataset with the original values will be used again in the subsequent steps. This experiment is, in fact, an effort to solve the aforementioned problem(s) in Step 3. Similar to the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Ossetians in South Ossetia possessed titular demographic dominance (D) without having undergone a traumatic peak experience (t). Possibly the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be explained by the same (parsimonious) formula as the South Ossetian conflict will be. The description of conflicts (Chapter 6) taught us that conflicts in the South Caucasus are similar to
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each other. It is, therefore, not easy to understand why in other cases autonomy (A) suffices without being traumatized (t), whereas in the case of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, who possess demographic majority in their autonomous territory (D), they should also be traumatized (T) in order to explain the conflict. Therefore, we changed experimentally the value of traumatic peak experience from present (T) to absent (t), in encounters in which Armenians are one party, 196
to see whether (shorter) explanations could be produced in which traumatic-peak experiences are irrelevant. The results of this (experimental) analysis are as follows:
(10) C= t * A * b * M * f (Azerbaijani–Armenian in Azerbaijan [Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict] + Georgian–Abkhazian in Georgia [Abkhazian Conflict] + Georgian– Ossetian in Georgia [South Ossetian Conflict] + Tajik–Pamiri in Tajikistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
(11) C= T * A * D * b * M * F (Russian–Chechen in Russia [Wars in Chechnya] + Ingush–Ossetian in Russia [Prigorodny Conflict])
(12) C= t * a * d * B * M * f (Kyrgyz–Uzbek in Kyrgyzstan [Osh Conflict] + Tajik–Uzbek in Uzbekistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
In the results of this analysis, the ethno-territorial conflicts inside Russia are listed together (Equation 11). The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is listed together with other ethno-territorial conflicts outside Russia (Equation 10), in which, in contrast to the result of the former analysis (Equation 7), the condition traumatic peak experience is absent (t). Although its absence in this conflict formula is experimental, it nevertheless means that there is no necessity for Armenians to have undergone a traumatic peak experience in order for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to erupt. Similar to other ethno-territorial conflicts in the Caucasus and the Pamiri–Tajik ethno-territorial conflict, the possession of territorial autonomy by the subordinated group in the host state/union republic (A) and location in a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration (M) suffice for the explanation of ethno-territorial conflicts (C) there. Strictly speaking, according to the formula (Equation 11), the condition transborder dominance should be absent (b), but as discussed
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To be more accurate, in such an experiment there should be no other group having experienced a traumatic peak experience in encounters with Armenians; but there appear no such cases in the dataset anyway.
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earlier this is a matter of factual circumstances and cannot be interpreted by theoretical assumptions or common sense—simply because a similar equation but with capital “B” does not appear in any ethno-territorial encounter. This experiment—that is, assuming hypothetically and experimentally that Armenians have not undergone a traumatic peak experience—does not influence the results of other analyses (the next two steps) with the inclusion of other conditions, simply because the condition “traumatic peak experience” is redundant in them.
In addition to the condition traumatic peak experience (T), the inclusion of religious difference also renders the conditions ethno-political subordination (S), linguistic difference (L), and contiguity (G) redundant. The analysis offers satisfactory results when the condition traumatic peak experience (T) is replaced by religious difference (R). The results are presented below:
(13) C= R * A * D * b * M (Azerbaijani–Armenian in Azerbaijan [Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict] + Russian–Chechen in Russia [Wars in Chechnya] + Ingush–Ossetian in Russia [Prigorodny Conflict] + Tajik–Pamiri in Tajikistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
(14) C= r * A * b * M * f (Georgian–Abkhazian in Georgia [Abkhazian Conflict] + Georgian– Ossetian in Georgia [South Ossetian Conflict])
(15) C= r * a * d * B * M * f (Kyrgyz–Uzbek in Kyrgyzstan [Osh Conflict] + Tajik–Uzbek in Uzbekistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
The equations (13–15) resulting from this analysis with the inclusion of religious difference (R) or (r) are very similar to those (Equations 7–12) with the inclusion of traumatic peak experience (T) or (t). In these equations the condition religious difference replaces the condition traumatic peak experience. Taking this into consideration, the interpretation of the results of previous analyses is also valid here. Certain problems of interpretation appear also here. The condition titular demographic dominance does not appear in Equation 14; it is irrelevant there because while being absent in the Abkhazian conflict, it is present in the South Ossetian conflict. This
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equation means that in cases outside the Russian Federation (f), whenever there is no religious difference (r) between the fighting groups, the combination of possession of autonomous territories (A) and location in a mosaic type of ethno-geographical configuration (M) suffices for explaining the ethno-territorial conflicts. Similar to the results of the previous steps, transborder dominance is absent (b) here simply because no other encounter exists which is similar in all other aspects but in which transborder dominance (B) is present. In addition, it is neither theoretically explainable, nor can it be understood by common sense, why titular demographic dominance is irrelevant in the cases in which no religious difference exists between the fighting groups (r) (Equation 14), but it must be present (D) in cases in which religious difference does exist (R) (Equation 13). Similar to the above-mentioned problem, also this problem is contingent upon the real existing cases (in the data-set). These problems are solved in the next steps (see especially Step 9). There is a similar problem: in this analysis it is notable that the Tajik–Pamiri ethno-territorial encounter in Tajikistan is explained by the first equation (13), in which demographic majority in the autonomous territory is required (D), while in the former analysis it was listed under those in which this condition did not even appear in the equation (10). Similar to the above-mentioned case, also this case is not theoretically apprehensible and leads us to believe in our earlier assumption that the presence of the extra condition traumatic peak experience (T) in the former, and religious difference (R) in this current, analysis may not be necessary for the explanation of ethno-territorial conflicts outside the Russian Federation. This analysis is itself one more reason to investigate this issue further by more analyses.
The inclusion of ethno-political subordination (S) and contiguity (G) together renders traumatic peak experience (T), religious difference (R), and linguistic difference (L) redundant. Linguistic difference (L) is not necessary for any parsimonious equations and can be dispensed with. This analysis, however, produces four instead of three conflict formulas (16– 19) and has its problems of interpretation. The results are as follows:
(16) C= S * A * G * b * M * f (Azerbaijani–Armenian in Azerbaijan [Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict] + Georgian–Abkhazian in Georgia [Abkhazian Conflict] + Georgian– Ossetian in Georgia [South Ossetian Conflict])
(17) C= S * A * D * g * b * M 309
(Russian–Chechen in Russia [Wars in Chechnya] + Tajik–Pamiri in Tajikistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
(18) C= s * A * D * G * b * M * F (Ingush–Ossetian in Russia [Prigorodny Conflict])
(19) C= S * a * d * G * B * M * f (Kyrgyz–Uzbek in Kyrgyzstan [Osh Conflict] + Tajik–Uzbek in Uzbekistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
The inclusion of ethno-political subordination (S) distinguishes between horizontal (Equation 18) and vertical ethno-territorial conflicts (Equations 16, 17, and 19). The only case of horizontal ethno-territorial conflict (the Prigorodny conflict) is located in Russia (F) and is characterized by autonomous setting (A), in which both titulars (the Ingush and Ossetians) possess demographic majority in their respective titular territories (D). This is not surprising, because of all countries covered in this study only in Russia do lower-ranked autonomous territories border each other. Only in Russia can two ethno-territorially subordinated ethno-territorial groups be titular in two bordering lower-ranked autonomous territorial units. The result of the first equation of this analysis (Equation 16) looks very plausible. It suggests that in the cases in which one ethno-territorial group is contiguous to a titular territory of its kinfolk (G), the possession of demographic majority of population is irrelevant. This condition is not at all part of the equation. This simply means that contiguity renders the (lack of) dominant demographic position irrelevant as a condition. Irrelevancy, however, does not mean absence: in three out of the four cases the ethno-territorial groups do possess demographic majority in their respective titular territories. Only in the case of the Abkhazian conflict do the Abkhazians not possess demographic majority in Abkhazia. In the previous analyses the Tajik–Pamiri ethno-territorial encounter in Tajikistan was listed together with other cases under the conflict formulas in which a dominant demographic position in titular territory was irrelevant (Equations 8, 10), while the results of this analysis suggest that dominant demographic majority (D) is a necessary condition for its explanation. This case also requires further investigation. Despite what Equation 17 suggests, the requirement for the absence of contiguity to a titular kinfolk in a neighboring union republic/country (g) does not seem to be a very plausible condition in the explanation of the Russian–Chechen conflict (Equation 17). It is rather strange that a “tough” case such as the Chechen–Russian conflict requires the absence of a conflict-facilitating condition in order to be explained. The results of this analysis suggest that the different outcomes of the two 310
similar cases of the Russian–Chechen and the Russian–Ossetian encounters in the Russian Federation are determined only by the fact that the Ossetians are contiguous to South Ossetia. It is not particularly plausible or comprehensible to assume that contiguity to their ethnic kinfolk, as an extra asset, has prevented North Ossetians from rebellion against Russia or that Russia is deterred by the North Ossetian contiguity to South Ossetia. It does indeed appear strange. The only sensible interpretation would be that a calculating “Eurasianist” Russia would not attack North Ossetians because it needs to have their southern kinfolk as its allies. Nevertheless, as the discussions showed, these were not the host countries/union republics that initiated attacks on subordinated ethno- territorial groups out of nowhere; first there were demands for separation and rebellion, to which the host countries/union republics reacted. In this particular case, however, the North Ossetians did not even rebel against Russia. Nevertheless, it is not too far-fetched to believe that North Ossetians have calculated that they had better not rebel against Russia, which (allegedly) was an ally of their southern kinfolk. The discussion of the ethno-territorial conflicts (Chapter 6), however, suggested that Ossetians, the only non-Slavic Orthodox Christian people in a sea of Sunni Muslims in the North Caucasus, had always been privileged by Russians and hence had not much reason to be aggrieved and yearn for secession from Russia. It should also be taken into account that rebellion against Russia is a much more difficult task than rebellion against Georgia or Azerbaijan. Apparently, the harsh ordeal through which many North Caucasian Muslims have gone has conditioned their ethno-political behavior. The analyses including religious difference (Step 5) and traumatic peak experience (Steps 3–4) produce much more sensible results than this one with contiguity (Step 6). This is one more reason to believe that the Chechen traumatic deportation in 1944, in which large numbers of Chechens died (T), in combination with other factors such as having a dominant demographic position in their titular territory (D) and being located in a mosaic type of ethno-territorial configuration (M), has been essential in bringing about the Chechen conflict and rebellion against Russia (C).
It seems that the dynamics of ethno-territorial conflicts in the Russian Federation (F) follow another logic than those outside the Russian Federation (f). Putting the ethno-territorial encounters inside and outside the Russian Federation into the same analysis creates confusions in the results and makes their interpretation rather difficult. Therefore, it seems
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to be a good idea to perform separate analyses for the ethno-territorial encounters located inside and outside Russia. Before doing that another oddity needs to be addressed. The type of contiguity which occurs most often in ethno-territorial conflicts, and is sometimes difficult to interpret, seems to be a “lower-ranked contiguity”—that is, contiguity to an autonomous territory inside a union republic/state. Such lower-ranked territorial units were called ASSRs and AOs in the Soviet period. There are many cases of contiguity to a kinfolk’s titular union republic/state—that is, “higher-ranked contiguity”—which remain peaceful. A higher-ranked contiguity is only present in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In that case the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan in general, are contiguous to Armenia (and the Armenian SSR). In the Abkhazian, Ossetian, and Prigorodny conflicts a “lower-ranked contiguity” is present. In the former conflict, the Abkhazians are contiguous to their Abaza and Circassian kinfolks in Karacheyevo-Cherkessia (and Kabardino-Balkaria and Adygheya). 197 In
the latter conflict, the Ossetians in South Ossetia and North Ossetia were contiguous to their kinfolk on either side of the Georgian–Russian border. South Ossetia was an autonomous province (AO) in Georgia at the onset of the conflict. All other mentioned territories are now autonomous republics of the Russian Federation and were formerly either an internal autonomous republic (ASSR), 198 (North Ossetia and Kabardino-Balkaria) or an autonomous province (AO) (Karacheyevo-Cherkessia and Adygheya). According to the results of the above analysis (Step 6), part of the explanation of the Prigorodny conflict lies in the fact that Ossetians in Russia are contiguous to South Ossetia in Georgia. It is doubtful that South Ossetians have played a major role in bringing about the Prigorodny conflict. Of course they may have supported their northern kinfolk, but it is unlikely that they played any direct role in the eruption of that conflict. In the description of that conflict it was already mentioned that the North Ossetian leadership has stated that it needed Prigorodny District, as it offers space for the housing of the South Ossetian refugees. It is not certain, however, that the North Ossetian leadership would give in to the Ingush demands, even if there were no South Ossetian refugees. Contiguity to an ethnic kinfolk in war may have either a conflict- instigating or a conflict-hampering effect, but we should bear in mind that
197 Abkhazia has borders only with Karachayevo-Cherkessia. Karachayevo-Cherkessia has borders with Kabardino-Balkaria and is proximate to Adygheya. Abkhazia itself is also proximate to Adygheya and Kabardino-Balkaria. Therefore, it can be said that Abkhazia is contiguous not only to Karachayevo-Cherkessia but to the whole Circassian area in the North Caucasus. 198
These internal autonomous republics were called “Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic” (ASSR), which is a confusing name when one realizes that the union republics with higher level of autonomy were simply called “Soviet Socialist Republic” (SSR).
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the condition contiguity (G) is not the same as contiguity to a conflict- afflicted territory; it simply accounts only for territorial contiguity to an ethnic kinfolk’s titular homeland, with or without being afflicted by conflict. The formula (Equation 18) suggests that the emergence of conflict in Prigorodny depends on the North Ossetian contiguity to their southern kinfolk, even when there was no conflict in South Ossetia. In order to investigate this oddity further, I split the condition “contiguity” (G) into two: “higher-ranked contiguity” (Q) means that the subordinated ethno-territorial group is contiguous to a state or union republic, in which its kinfolk is titular; and “lower-ranked contiguity” (K) means that the subordinated ethno-territorial group is contiguous to a lower-ranked autonomous territory in which its kinfolk is titular. The replacement of the condition “G” by “Q” does not produce satisfactory results. There occurs a contradiction. The causal configuration “S * A * D * q * b * M * F” relates to the Russian–Chechen and Russian–Ossetian ethno-territorial encounters in Russia. The former one is marked by ethno- territorial conflict and the latter is not. As expected, however, the replacement of the condition contiguity “G” by lower-ranked contiguity “K” produces satisfactory results:
(Azerbaijani–Armenian in Azerbaijan [Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict] + Russian–Chechen in Russia [Wars in Chechnya] + Tajik–Pamiri in Tajikistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
(21) C= S * A * K * b * M * f (Georgian–Abkhazian in Georgia [Abkhazian Conflict] + Georgian– Ossetian in Georgia [South Ossetian Conflict])
(22) C= s * A * D * K * b * M * F (Ingush–Ossetian in Russia [Prigorodny Conflict])
(23) C= S * a * d * k * B * M * f (Kyrgyz–Uzbek in Kyrgyzstan [Osh Conflict] + Tajik–Uzbek in Uzbekistan [Tajikistani Civil War])
The formulas of conflicts (Equations 20–23) are similar to those produced by the former analysis. It is remarkable, however, that similar to the result (Equation 10) of the experimental analysis (Step 4), here also, the Tajik– Pamiri ethno-territorial conflict is grouped together with the Nagorno-
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Karabakh conflict (Equation 20). 199
On the other hand, interpretations of equations with titular demographic dominance and transborder dominance remain problematic also in this analysis. All in all, and referring to all arguments in this step and previous ones, there is ample reason to take the ethno-territorial encounters inside and outside Russia into separate analyses. These separate analyses will make it clear whether or not our earlier assumptions were correct. However, one thing should be taken into account: the condition mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration (M) is constantly present in the North Caucasus. Despite being a necessary condition in the explanation of all ethno-territorial conflicts in this study, this condition (M) can be dispensed with because its exclusion from the analysis of the encounters in the Russian North Caucasus does not produce contradictions. Nevertheless, in spite of being redundant in the parsimonious equations, this condition should be taken seriously. Its inclusion only adds to the plausibility and robustness of the results if one looks further than the North Caucasus. Its omission from the analysis would have produced unsatisfactory results if encounters from other Russian regions were also taken into analysis. The fact that nowhere else in the Russian Federation have ethno-territorial conflicts erupted but in the North Caucasus suggests that the mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration (M), which distinguishes the North Caucasus from other regions of the Russian Federation, is a necessary condition in explaining ethno-territorial conflicts in Russia.
Separate qualitative comparative analyses of the 46 ethno-territorial encounters in Russia produce satisfactory results consistent with our expectations (Equations 24–27). These analyses follow the same logic as those of the previous analyses, in which encounters inside and outside Russia were not taken separately. Transborder dominance (b) is lacking in the Russian Federation. Therefore, its omission from the analysis does not create any problems, while resulting in more parsimonious equations. Similar to those previous analyses, the inclusion of traumatic peak experience (T) renders the conditions ethno-political subordination (S), religious difference (R), linguistic difference (L), and all conditions relating to contiguity (whether G, Q, or K) redundant. It also renders the autonomous setting (A) redundant. Nevertheless, it does not lead to any conceptual or interpretative problems, as titular demographic dominance
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Also, this fact suggests that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict may be explained even when Armenians were not traumatized. 314
(D) also includes that condition (A). Similarly, the inclusion of religious difference (R) renders ethno-political subordination (S), traumatic peak experience (T), linguistic difference (L), autonomous setting (A), and all conditions relating to contiguity (whether G, Q, or K) redundant. Of the two conditions resulting from the differentiation of type of contiguity (i.e. K and Q), the lower-ranked contiguity (K) is the one that gives satisfactory results. Its inclusion in the analysis, in combination with ethno-political subordination (S), renders traumatic peak experience (T), religious difference (R), and linguistic difference (L) redundant. The truth tables pertaining to these analyses are very clear and clarifying and are, therefore, presented (Tables 7.5, 7.6, and 7.7). The result of the analysis of ethno-territorial encounters in the Russian Federation with the inclusion of traumatic peak experience (T) is as follows:
(24) C= T * D * M (Russian–Chechen in Russia [Wars in Chechnya] + Ingush–Ossetian in Russia [Prigorodny Conflict])
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