Uva-dare (Digital Academic Repository) Ethno-territorial conflict and coexistence in the Caucasus, Central Asia and Fereydan
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- Appendix 1: Measurement of Mosaic Type of Ethno-Geographic Configuration
- ADMINISTRATIVE UNIT TITULAR ETHNIC GROUP % TITULARS IN THE
- Total PROPET
- Radius when the area is assumed to be circular
Appendices 340
341
Appendix 1: Measurement of Mosaic Type of Ethno-Geographic Configuration
A mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration is a relatively small area in which different ethnic groups are concentrated in many relatively homogeneous pockets of ethnic concentration. Switzerland is a typical area with such attributes. A mosaic area is ethnically fragmented and, therefore, there are many encounters between these ethnic groups. The total number of encounters between ethnic groups may even be (ideally) larger than the number of ethnic groups.
The best way to determine whether a geographic area is of the mosaic type or not is to develop an index and an instrument which calculates the degree of fragmentation in an area. When fragmentation can be quantified—that is, different values of the extent of fragmentation can be calculated—a critical value can be defined above or below which an area can be designated as a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration. As is the case with all social scientific instruments, there is also an arbitrary aspect to the development of this instrument for the measurement and the definition of the critical values of the mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration. Even instruments for measurements of natural phenomena may have an arbitrary aspect, as the definitions of, and choices between, different units of measurement—for example, between Celsius and Fahrenheit—are human-made choices. Natural phenomena follow natural laws, but instruments for their measurement are human- made. All instruments are shaped by the taste and intellect of their designers. Nevertheless, they should all have certain features and characteristics which make them suitable for the task for which they are made. For example, in order to make an instrument which can cut vegetables, it should be a solid and sharp instrument. Metal is the best material for such an instrument, and paper is absolutely unsuitable. The designer designs such an instrument according to his taste, but it fulfills the criteria discussed above. Most likely it looks like a knife and not like a book.
of fragmentation and can determine whether an area is of a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration or not. Although improvements are desirable, I have made such an instrument. In the following, I will discuss how it is made. 342
In order to determine whether or not an area is of the mosaic type, we should determine how large the area should be, and how many ethnic spatial pockets and how many encounters between these pockets should be located in this area. Consequently, the formula for such a measurement is based on the value of area divided by the number of ethnic spatial encounters. (One should not confuse ethnic spatial encounters with ethno- territorial encounters. They are slightly different from each other, as will be explained later on.) Ideally, in an area displaying a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration, there are many ethnic spatial pockets—that is, relatively homogeneous pockets of ethnic concentrations—and the number of encounters between such pockets are usually larger than their own numbers. In other words, in a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration, there are usually more encounters than pockets of ethnic concentration. Such a situation is only possible when there are at least four ethnic spatial pockets (see Figure A-1.1). There is only one encounter possible between two ethnic spatial pockets (Circle A), and two (Circle B) or three encounters (Circle C) possible between three ethnic spatial pockets On the other hand, the number of ethnic spatial encounters is usually larger than the number of ethnic spatial pockets when there are at least four such pockets. In other words, an additional encounter is usually present when there are at least four ethnic groups, provided that no ethnic spatial pocket is encircled by another one. Out of the seven imaginary patterns in circles in which four ethnic spatial pockets are present, one (Circle D) results in six ethnic spatial encounters, four result in five encounters (Circles E, F, G, and H), one circle (I) results in four encounters, and one (J) results in three encounters.
Figure A-1.1. Four ethnic pockets result in additional encounters
These patterns in circles (see Figure A-1.1) show that when there are four ethnic spatial pockets, there is at least one additional encounter in five out of seven cases (more than 71% of the cases). Conversely, this also means that there are at least four ethnic pockets when there are five ethnic
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encounters, because three ethnic spatial pockets can never result in five ethnic spatial encounters. It can be argued that five ethnic spatial encounters, whether resulting from four or five ethnic spatial pockets, always result in a certain degree of fragmentation and, therefore, this is a good criterion of mosaicness, provided that the area in which they are located is relatively small.
How large (or more precisely, how small) should an area be in which five ethnic spatial encounters are present? In order to determine this, one should first determine how large an average ethnic spatial pocket should ideally be. Given the fact that mosaicness requires that at least four of them should be present in a small area, these ethnic spatial pockets themselves should not be large. One can take Switzerland (see Figure A-1.2) as a model and by that recognize as a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration geographic areas with similar features of ethnic fragmentation. One can also build an instrument by selecting relatively small but ethnically compact areas. Selecting territorial units from the former Soviet Union is a good strategy for this purpose. These are often small territories which are designated as the homelands of a certain ethnic group that is concentrated there. 203
The titular ethnic groups do not necessarily constitute the majority of the population in these territorial autonomous units. However, knowing their relative share in a territory’s population, one can calculate how large a homogeneous ethnic spatial pocket would be if that particular ethnic group lived compactly. These territorial units of the former Soviet Union should not be very large. All autonomous ethnic territories, whether SSR, ASSR, AO, or NO, from the former Soviet Union are selected which are smaller than 70,000 km 2 and have less than 4,000,000 inhabitants. Then it is calculated how large the titular groups’ share of land would be if the land in that territorial unit was distributed proportionally to their share in the total population (PROPET in Table A- 1.1). In this way it can be calculated how large an average homogeneous ethnic spatial pocket would be and, therefore, also the area in which four such pockets would be located. Assuming that the area is circular, the radius of such an area can also be calculated.
The calculations (Table A-1.1) 204 show that an average ethnically homogeneous spatial pocket is 14,427.15 km 2 large. Hence, an area containing four such ethnic spatial pockets will be 57,708.6 km 2 large. It is more practical for the purpose of (manual) measurement if such an area
203 Only the Jewish Autonomous Oblast’ (Birobijan) in the Russian Far East is not included, because it did not contain the largest concentration of Soviet Jews. 204
Different sources may present slightly different values. However, these differences do not have significant consequences for our calculations. 344
is a circle. If we assume it to be circular, such an area should have a radius of 135.5 km. In order to make the calculations and measurements easier, we take 130 km as the radius of this circle. This is justifiable because we have already rounded up many numbers in the calculation of the “vastness” or “smallness” of this area. Moreover, 5.5 km does not produce much difference in the real world. Such a circle will have an area of 53,092.92 km 2 . Such an area can be qualified as a mosaic type of ethno- geographic configuration if at least five ethnic spatial encounters are located in it. An instrument for the measurement of mosaicness can be built by dividing the geometric area by the number of ethnic spatial encounters. (In the following discussion about calculations, an area means a geometric area.) This calculation will result in a large number. In our example, it is 10,618.58. Therefore, in order to work with more “usable” numbers, we divide the result by 1,000. Hence the formula for the measurement of mosaicness will be as follows:
₥= area/(number of ethnic spatial encounters * 1000) The degree of mosaicness in our example is then ₥= 10.62. This value would have been 11.54 if the area had not been corrected, indicating that the correction of the value of area—by taking a smaller radius—for the sake of practicality does not make a major difference. As ₥= 10.62 is the upper limit of mosaicness, this value and any value below it will be considered as a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration. The formula shows that the value of ₥ will be smaller if the number of encounters is larger or the area is smaller. In Switzerland, with an area of 41,285 km 2 and four ethnic spatial encounters, the degree of mosaicness is ₥= 41,285/(4*1000)= 10.32. This value is close to, but clearly below, the upper limit of ₥= 10.62. Therefore, the instrument determines that Switzerland is a mosaic area. This is yet another reason that this instrument is a good one for the measurement of mosaicness. Any ethnic spatial encounter located in Switzerland is located in a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration, as the measurement of ₥ for most encounters will most likely result in even smaller values than 10.32 (see the method of measurement discussed below). Although this value falls within the limits of mosaicness, Switzerland contains only four ethnic spatial encounters. However, there are more ethnic spatial encounters between the ethnic spatial pockets in Switzerland and those outside, when foreign countries’ territories—for example, Val D’Aosta in Italy—are also taken into the measurement and calculation of mosaicness. Before doing this, however, we have to answer the question whether
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Switzerland’s international borders are hard or soft borders. It is not permissible and appropriate to measure beyond them if they are hard borders, but it is permissible if they are soft. When assumed to be soft borders, the larger area of measurement may still be a mosaic area, because there are more ethnic spatial encounters in that slightly larger area.
It is always necessary to define beyond which borders stops the measurement of mosaicness. In the measurement of mosaicness, one has to distinguish between hard and soft borders. Hard borders are those borders across which there is little transborder interaction. The Soviet external borders are an example of such hard borders. Hard borders in the post-Soviet context are the borders between the Soviet successor states and states which were not part of the former Soviet Union. Soft borders are those borders across which there is much transborder interaction. These are the Soviet internal borders and borders between the Soviet successor states—usually members of the CIS, an heir to the Soviet Union—even many years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Visa regime, marriages, and migrations between these republics bind them together for many years, if not decades. To determine whether the area around an encounter is of the mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration or not, one has to draw a circle with a radius of 130 km around that encounter. As such an encounter is rarely a point and as there are usually one or more lines of contact, there are more points possible around which a circle can be drawn. Therefore, there may be different measurements with different values. However, an encounter can be regarded as being located in a mosaic area if at least one such measurement determines that it is located in a mosaic area. In the measurement of mosaicness, one has to distinguish between an ethno-territorial encounter and an ethnic spatial encounter. An ethnic spatial encounter is slightly different from an ethno-territorial encounter. By ethno-territorial encounter is meant a spatial encounter between two rooted ethnic groups within one former union republic or country (state). (In the text of the body of this book, an encounter simply means an ethno- territorial encounter.) Technically, all ethno-territorial encounters are ethnic spatial encounters, but the latter may reach across soft borders. To give an example: if one wants to determine whether the Tajik–Kyrgyz ethno-territorial encounter in Tajikistan is located in a mosaic area or not, one has to draw a circle around a point on the line of their encounter in Tajikistan and then count how many ethnic spatial encounters are present in that area across the soft borders—for example, in Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan—thereby counting each encounter between the same ethnic groups as one ethnic spatial encounter, even when they are located in two
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republics. In other words, no attention is paid to the soft borders in the measurement of mosaicness. This is understandable because the effects of mosaicness are presumably present in an area regardless of any soft borders. It is also not important of how many spatial pockets the living area (habitat) of an ethnic group consists. The encounter between two ethnic groups will be counted once, regardless of the multitude of their lines of contact. It is possible that a full circle cannot be drawn around an ethno- territorial encounter. This is the situation when part of the imaginary circle may be located across the off-limit areas. In addition to the hard borders, the Caspian Sea and Black Sea are also considered off-limits, and the area of circles overlapping with them will not be taken into the calculation of mosaicness. What should we do in these cases? In practice in the study in this book, no difficulties were met because even in such cases it is clearly measurable whether such an area is of the mosaic type of ethno- geographic configuration or not, even if a full circle cannot be drawn. However, the best way to deal with this problem is to calculate the area of the incomplete circle, count the number of ethnic spatial encounters in this area, and using the above-mentioned formula see whether it is equal to or below ₥= 10.62. A problem may be that the area of an incomplete circle may be too small and hence even a small number of ethnic spatial encounters may produce a value below the upper limit of mosaicness (₥ ≤ 10.62). Although correct according to the formula, it does not seem to be justifiable to regard such an area as a mosaic one. In order to solve such problems and in order to get more solid results in general, the measurement process should be repeated over a wider area (even if we were able to draw a full circle). The calculation should proceed at a short distance and at a long distance. Hence, a circle with a radius of 260 km will be drawn. Using the formula, this area should contain at least 20 ethnic-spatial encounters when it is a full circle. Although the area of this circle covers a geographic area four times larger than the smaller circle, the distance from the (point of) encounter is only twice as long. In reality, many ethnic spatial pockets lie beyond the limits of the first circle, and perhaps more than half of the encounters may repeat themselves in the larger area. A mosaic area can border another mosaic area and hence be located in a larger mosaic area in only one direction but may border a non- mosaic area in its other directions (see Figure A-1.3). In Figure A-1.3 the smaller circle—itself displaying a mosaic type of ethno-geographic configuration—is located in an area which is largely of mosaic type, because it displays mosaicness only in its upper side. In practice, it is reasonable to regard a mosaic area as mosaic even when the outer larger circular area around it is only partially of a mosaic type of ethno-
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geographic configuration. It is, therefore, justifiable in such cases as in Figure A-1.3 to regard the ethno-territorial encounter at the center of circles as located in a mosaic type of ethno-geographic encounter. Therefore, we set the criterion of the number of ethnic spatial encounters lower, to 10. In a circle with a radius of 260 km, there should be at least 10 ethnic spatial encounters in order to call it a mosaic area; and in cases where it is not a full circle, it has to have a degree of mosaicness ₥= 21,2371.66/(10 * 1000) = 21.24 or below (that is, ₥ ≤ 21.24). A precondition is that that the encounter is already located in a mosaic area measured at short distance (₥ ≤ 10.62). To recapitulate the main points: an ethno-territorial encounter is located in an area which can be typified as a mosaic type of ethno- geographic configuration when—using the formula ₥= area/(number of encounters * 1000)—the value of ₥ is equal to or lower than 10.62 in a circular or partially circular area with a radius of 130 km, in addition to having a value of ₥ equal to or lower than 21.24 in a circular or partially circular area of 260 km.
Figure A-1.2. Ethnic distribution in Switzerland
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Table A-1.1. Administrative units and PROPETs
UNIT TITULAR ETHNIC GROUP % TITULARS IN THE POPULATION AREA KM 2 PROPET KM 2 Abkhazia Abkhaz 18 8,432
1,518 Adygheya Adygheyans (Circassians) 22 7,600 1,672
Aga Buryatia Buryats
55 19,000
10,450 Armenia Armenians 93 29,740 27,658
Checheno-Igushetia Chechens 58 19,300
11,194 Checheno-Igushetia Ingush 13 19,300
2,509 Chuvashia Chuvash 68 18,300 12,444
Dagestan 205
Avars 28
50,300 14,084
Estonia Estonians 62 43,432 26,928 Gorno-Badakhshan Pamiris 61 64,200 39,162
Jewish (Birobijan) Jews
4 36,300 1,452 Kabardino-Balkaria Kabardin (Circassians) 48 12,500 6,000
Kabardino-Balkaria Balkars 9 12,500
1,125 Karachayevo-Cherkessia Karachay 31 14,100 4,371 Karachayevo-Cherkessia Cherkess (Circassians) 10 14,100 1,410
Khakassia Khakas 63 61,900 38,997 Komi-Permyak Komi- Permyak
60 32,770 19,662
Latvia Latvians 52
64,589 33,586
Lithuania Lithuanians 80 65,200
52,160
Mari El Mari
43 23,200
9,976 Mordovia Mordovins 33 26,200 8,646
Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians 77
4,400
3,388 North Ossetia Ossetians 53 8,000
4,240 South Ossetia Ossetians 66
3,900 2,574
Tatarstan Tatars 49 68,000 33,320 Udmurtia Udmurtians 31 42,100 13,051
Ust Orda Buryatia Buryat
36 22,100
7,956 Total PROPET
389,533 Average area PROPET
389,533/27 = 14,427.15 4x larger PROPET
57,708.6 Mosaicness (5 encounters)
11.54 Radius when the area is assumed to be circular
r = 135.5 km
205 There is no titular group in Dagestan; therefore, we chose the Avars, the largest Dagestani native ethnic group. |
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