Way of the turtle
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Way Of The Turtle
Everybody’s Different
Each of us has a different tolerance for pain and different expecta- tions for reward. For this reason, there is no single measure that universally appeals to everyone. I have used a combination of the MAR ratio, drawdowns, and overall return while keeping an eye on smoothness by looking at the Sharpe ratio and R-squared figures. Recently I designed some measures that are more stable versions of these common measures. Those measures are discussed in Chapter 12. 106 • Way of the Turtle I also try not to get too caught up in any particular figures, know- ing that the future will be different and that the fact that a strategy has a MAR of 1.5 at the moment does not mean it will continue to maintain that ratio in the future. By What Measure? • 107 This page intentionally left blank • 109 • eight RISK AND MONEY MANAGEMENT Ruin is the risk you should be concerned with the most. It can come like a thief in the night and steal everything if you aren’t watching carefully. L ike many of the concepts we use in trading, expectation, edge, risk of ruin and so on, the term money management comes from gambling theory. Money management is the art of keeping your risk of ruin at an acceptable level while maximizing your profit potential by choosing an appropriate number of shares or contracts to trade, something we refer to as the size of the trade, and by limiting the aggregate size of the position to control expo- sure to price shocks. Good money management helps ensure that you will continue to be able to trade through the inevitable bad periods that every trader experiences. Most discussions of the topic make use of countless formulas and cover different methods for determining precisely the number of contracts one should trade. They approach risk as if it were a definable and knowable concept, but it isn’t. This chapter won’t duplicate those discussions. If you Copyright © 2007 by Curtis M. Faith. Click here for terms of use. want a survey of the many different methods you can use to deter- mine the number of contracts to trade, several books listed in the bibliography cover that topic. I believe that money management is more art than science, or perhaps more like religion than art. There are no right answers. There are no best ways to define one’s risk position. There are only individual answers that work for each person; those answers can be obtained only by asking the right questions. At its core, money management is about finding the trade-off between taking so much risk that you end up losing everything or are forced to quit trading and, conversely, taking so little risk that you end up leaving too much money on the table. There are two primary ways that excessive risk can force you to stop trading: extended drawdowns that exceed your psychological limits and a sudden price shock that wipes out the account. Your proper level of risk is very much a function of what is impor- tant to you. For that reason, if you want to trade, you have to become intimately familiar with the implications of taking too much risk or too little risk so that you can make an informed decision. Many vendors of systems or courses on trading make it seem that anyone can follow their methods and achieve riches quickly and easily. They do this because it helps them sell more systems and more courses on trading. They understate the dangers of risk and overstate the probabilities and ease of attaining those riches. They are lying. The risk is real, and trading is not easy. It is very important to keep one thing in mind before deciding to be aggressive: Steady returns of 20 or 30 percent per year will make you a lot of money in a reasonably short period starting with almost any amount of money. The power of compounding is very Download 6.09 Mb. Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |
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