What happened? How did our results change so dramatically?
Why did our best system have a 50 percent
increase in the size of
the drawdown? Why did the system that used the simplest exit have
no change in performance over the last five
months when some
other systems did especially poorly? How does a trader build sys-
tems that are more likely to perform to expectations?
Put a differ-
ent way, how can you conform your expectations to better fit the
probable outcomes of trading a system?
These questions offer an apt introduction to Chapter 11, which
will examine all these issues and increase your understanding of
the difference between the results you might get in a backtest and
what you
might expect in actual trading, as well as those factors
which influence the disparity between
tested and actual trading
results.
Turtle-Style Trading: Step by Step
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