We know that institutions matter for economic outcomes


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We know that institutions matter for economic outcomes

  • We know that institutions matter for economic outcomes

  • Little evidence on the determinants of institutions

  • According to Boserup – population pressure leads to institutional and technical change

  • Demographic shifts in Africa could help to explain past outcomes and help to predict future outcomes



Study links between population pressure and institutions in Burkina Faso

  • Study links between population pressure and institutions in Burkina Faso

  • Survey and census data exist for Burkina Faso for the period 1985–2006.

  • The missing information is the information on institutions

  • We designed a new survey to create a time series measure of institutional change



Well, not only is Harounan a great economist but he is also Burkinabe!

  • Well, not only is Harounan a great economist but he is also Burkinabe!

  • Some great data are already available and some highly qualified statisticians are willing to work with us to collect the rest

  • Burkina has experienced significant within country variation in demographic shifts due to the Onchoceriasis Control Programme (74-85) and the repatriation of Burkinabe from Cote d’Ivoire (99-02)









Collaborators: Direction Generale des Statistiques et des Previsions Agricoles

  • Collaborators: Direction Generale des Statistiques et des Previsions Agricoles

  • Permanent Agricultural Survey: farm households level survey: 1993-2006

  • Sample+sample weights to get village level population



Nationally representative surveys

  • Nationally representative surveys

  • Village-level panel (same villages surveyed over the 14 years)

  • Data:

    • Household characteristics
    • Household agricultural production
    • Land conservation


Village level survey (700 villages) starting in April 2009

  • Village level survey (700 villages) starting in April 2009

  • Village population from census data (1975, 1985, 1996 and 2006)

    • Population size
    • Population composition (age and gender)
  • Current population composition

    • By ethnicity
    • By migration status


Two sources to calculate village population growth

  • Two sources to calculate village population growth

    • From household surveys (sample size+sample weights)
    • From census data
  • Number of migrants returning from Cote d’Ivoire:



Ask respondents to characterize:

  • Ask respondents to characterize:

    • the situation now and when it was established;
    • the previous situation and when it was established;
    • …and so forth back to 1985
  • Use responses to construct annual time series

    • Variables may be categorical (e.g. able to sell land?)
    • or continuous (e.g. distance to nearest bus or bush taxi stop)
  • Group variables into types of institutions/infrastructures:

    • Roads
    • Services
    • Land tenure
    • Etc.


Road Access (= average of…)

  • Road Access (= average of…)

    • 5B. Route passable par car ou camion toute l’année
    • 5C. Route passable par car ou camion saisonnière
    • 5D. Arrêt d’autocar/taxi brousse rural
  • Services Access

    • 5A. Représentant de l’administration centrale (pour les registres des naissances)
    • 5E. Bureau des Caisses populaires
    • 5F. Localité la plus proche avec électricité
    • 5G. Localité la plus proche ou il y a le téléphone fixe


Land Tenure (selected)

  • Land Tenure (selected)

    • 8A. Type de droit appliquée pour les terres de culture:
    • 8B. Location, vente et prêts de terres de culture:
    • 8C. Est-ce qu’il y a des terres de culture qui ont étés louées ?
    • 8D. Est-ce qu’il y a des terres de culture qui ont étés vendus ?
    • 8E. Est-ce qu’il y a des terres de culture qui ont étés prêtées ?
    • 8F. A qui devrait-on demander permission pour louer ses terres?
  • Markets

    • 6A. Fréquences des marchés:
    • 6B. Type de source pour accès a l’eau dans le marché
    • 6C. Hangars dans le marché
    • 6D. Accès à l’électricité dans le marché
    • 6E. Frais (niveau des taxes de marché)
    • 6F. Autres restrictions d’accès au marché


8A. Type de droit appliquée pour les terres de culture:

  • 8A. Type de droit appliquée pour les terres de culture:

  • Type de droit appliquée Date de début d’application

  • (1=oui, 0=non) (année)

  • 8A1. Propriété individuelle : ____ ______

  • 8A2. Propriété collective-familiale: ____ ______

  • 8A3. Propriété collective-lignagère: ____ ______

  • 8A4. Propriété collective-communautaire: ____ ______

  •  

  •  

  • 8B. Location, vente et prêts de terres de culture:

  • Possibilité de transaction Date

  • (1=oui, 0=non) (année)

  • 8B1. Est-ce que la terre peut-être louée : ____ si oui, depuis quand ______

  • 8B2. Est-ce que la terre peut-être vendue : ____ si oui, depuis quand ______

  • 8B3. Est-ce que la terre peut-être prêtée : ____ si oui, depuis quand ______







Sources of endogeneity and identification strategies:

  • Sources of endogeneity and identification strategies:

    • i. Correlations between unobservable village characteristics and Population:
      • Our village-fixed effects already control for time-invariant village characteristics
      • How about time-varying village characteristics not included in X (e.g. a village had a birth control program for sometime?)


Sources of endogeneity and identification strategies:

  • Sources of endogeneity and identification strategies:

    • ii. Unobserved variables driving both institutional changes and population growth :
      • Use instrumental variables which are correlated with population but not institutions (restrict sample to 1996 and 2006):
        • Returnees from Cote d’Ivoire (caused by the civil war between 2000 and 2002)
        • Population below 15 in 1985 for population momentum
        • Inflows of migrants due to the eradication of river blindness (note that villages with government sponsored settlements may have started with different institutions)
        • Distance to railroad



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