5s decision Theory Learning Objectives


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Decisin theory AS
Mavjudlik, o'zgarish, bog'liqlikning asosiy shakllari. Falsafiy , Mavjudlik, o'zgarish, bog'liqlikning asosiy shakllari. Falsafiy , NIgor 5, BAKIROVA RA’NO, BAKIROVA RA’NO, 3-SINFDA MANTIQIY MASALALARGA QISQA YOZUV TUZISHDA RASM,CHIZMA VA JADVALLARDAN FOYDALANISH USULLARI, algoritmlar, 1 (16) (1), oddiy differensial tenglamalar uchun chegaraviy masalalarni oqitish usuli bilan sonli yechish, Seminar mavzulari(1), J, Html, Cadastre Eng, 8-sinf-matematika.docx (4), 8-sinf-matematika.docx (4)

5S

Decision Theory

Learning Objectives

  • Describe the different environments under which operations decisions are made
  • Describe and use techniques that apply decision making theory under uncertainty
  • Describe and use the expected-value approach

Learning Objectives

  • Construct a decision tree and use it to analyze a problem
  • Compute the expected value of perfect information
  • Conduct sensitivity analysis on a simple decision problem

Decision Theory represents a general approach to decision making which is suitable for a wide range of operations management decisions, including:
Product and service design
Equipment
selection
Location
planning
Capacity
planning
Decision Theory

A set of possible future conditions exists that will have a bearing on the results of the decision

  • A set of possible future conditions exists that will have a bearing on the results of the decision
  • A list of alternatives for the manager to choose from
  • A known payoff for each alternative under each possible future condition

Decision Theory Elements

Identify possible future conditions called states of nature

  • Identify possible future conditions called states of nature
    • e.g., (demand will be low, medium, or high; the competitor will or will not introduce a new product)
  • Develop a list of possible alternatives, one of which may be to do nothing
  • Determine the payoff associated with each alternative for every future condition

Decision Theory Process

If possible, determine the likelihood of each possible future condition

  • If possible, determine the likelihood of each possible future condition
  • Evaluate alternatives according to some decision criterion and select the best alternative

Decision Theory Process (Cont’d)

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