Purpose

Agenda

CTF OPERATIONAL AREA

Republic of Ayland

• Area: 195,311 sq. km (75,410 sq. mi)

• Terrain: mountainous (plateau in eastern portion)

• Climate: extreme cold winters (-30 C). Short, warm summers

• Population: 726,000

• Capital and major city: Choybalsan (pop. 125K)

• Economic mainstay: agriculture, livestock breeding, mining (copper, molybdenum)

• Power: coal

• Government: parliamentary democracy

• Country formed in 1946, out of post WWII agreements

Republic of Beland

• Area: 214,322 sq. km (82,750 sq. mi)

• Terrain: desert steppe

• Climate: extreme cold winters (-30 C). Short, warm summers

• Population: 831,000

• Capital and major city: Barun-Urt (pop. 147K)

• Economic mainstay: agriculture, livestock breeding, mining

• Power: coal

• Government: parliamentary democracy

• Country formed in 1946, out of post WWII agreements

THREAT SITUATION

C2 Estimate

C2 Estimate

C2 Estimate

C2 Estimate

HIGHER’S MISSION

Commander’s Intent

FORCES AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING

FORCES AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING

FORCES AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING

FORCES AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING

FORCES AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING

FORCES AVAILABLE FOR PLANNING

FACTS

• Majority of Forces available for 6 months

• Over-flight rights granted for Russia and China

• Both parties have agreed to a UN cease-fire and buffer-zone

• UN Mandate and UB Agreement in place

• Terrorists continue hostile action in the disputed area and in some of the Dislocated Civilian (DC) camps

• Infrastructure damage

• Railroads, roads, power, landmines, water and mines, hospitals

• TCC nations responsible for 5 days of sustainment

FACTS

• Rogue elements not abiding to agreements

• Lead Nation is Mongolia

• Epidemics in several DC camps

• 14 total DC camps (10 in Ayland and 4 in Beland) - 125,000 (34,000 refugees)

• Humanitarian Coordinator “leading” humanitarian effort from the Humanitarian Operations Center (HOC) including setting relief priorities

• Donor pallets: 3,300 pallets (C-130)

FACTS

• Epidemics (pulmonary and bronchial infections, Hep A and B, trachoma, SARS, and brucellosis) in several DC camps

• Bubonic plague transmitted via marmots in AUG-OCT

• Preparations for harsh winters in DC camps is inadequate

• USMC/USN assets available thru C+30

• PACOM Contingency Communications Package (CCP) is available for duration of CTF mission

• Rapid deployment of CTF forces NLT 15 1200 NOV 2003

• Operational Control/Tactical Control (OPCON/TACON) of forces is in accordance with MOUs between participating nations

ASSUMPTIONS

• Due to extreme summer draught, there is very high probability of a “Dzud” starting in October

• Terrorists (TPFDL) will attempt to disrupt MNF & UN / IO / NGO efforts

• Ayland and Beland continue to abide by Agreement

• Beland and Ayland will provide law & order in Non-occupied zone (less camps)

• Primary APOD can support air operations

• Surface to air threat

• TPFDL is well armed and organized, and receives support from significant elements of the population within the disputed area

ASSUMPTIONS

• Ayland/Beland Support as Host Nation extremely limited

• Permissions for overland transit granted by Russia/China

• IO/NGO will distribute HA to DC camps

• Strategic lift available and may move IO/NGO HA material

• APODs/SPODs/SLOC will remain open

• SPOD/APOD: Vlad (Rus)/ULN (Mon), Choybalsan (Ay), Sainshand NE (Be)

• APODs will not have sufficient POL and de-icing equipment

• Certified Airlift/Airdrop will be required and possible

LIMITATIONS

• Constraints: required actions (must do)

• Must abide by mandate, Intl Law & ROE
• Deploy by 15 Nov
• Coalition interoperability (Incl Comms & Intel)
• Establish a BZ with dimensions IAW the UB Agreement
• Prepare for extreme cold weather operations

• Restraints: prohibited actions (must not do)

• Use U.S. Navy & Marine forces for a period greater than 30 days

CENTERS OF GRAVITY AND DECISIVE POINTS

• Threat COGs / DPs:

• Strategic
• Perceived legitimacy of TPFDL by supporters of TIP & by supporters outside the AO
• Operational
• Command and control network and infrastructure
• Tactical
• Local recruitment & support in DC Camps for TPFDL
• Rogue elements of Ayland & Beland
• Decisive Points
• Access to DC camps
• Base of Operations
• Capability to spread the TPFDL message

CENTERS OF GRAVITY AND DECISIVE POINTS

• Friendly COGs / DPs:

• Strategic
• Coalition legitimacy & MNF political will
• Public support for return of peace & stability
• Operational
• Coalition cohesiveness & effectiveness
• Tactical
• Local/Regional support for MNF
• Ability to conduct MNF operations under Dzud conditions
• Decisive Points
• C2 systems
• Lines of Communication (Incl Support lines)
• Ability to enforce the BZ

SPECIFIED TASKS

• Deploy forces rapidly into the AO, quickly establishing command, control and communications capabilities to facilitate timely arrival of MNF forces and logistical support.

• Establish strong coordination links with SRSG Mr. Bataar Dorj.

• Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone.

• Maintain separation of Ayland and Beland armed forces.

• Create conditions in Ayland to support restoration of law and order.

• Be prepared to temporarily assure execution of security functions (includes detaining, transporting and turning over of lawbreakers to proper authorities).

• Help develop and assist with the CT efforts

• Once Ayland authorities fully assume active role, continue to support CT efforts by providing information.

SPECIFIED TASKS

• In conjunction with governments of Ayland & Beland, develop a CT plan to eliminate the terrorist threat in Ayland & Beland, in particular in the disputed area & DC camps

• Facilitate HA/DR operations.

• Plan for extreme cold weather operations and effect on CTF forces. Also plan for effects this weather will have on Dislocated Civilians.

• Develop and implement Information Operations campaign in support of CTF under the UN mandate.

• Execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities.

• Redeploy forces.

IMPLIED TASKS

• Establish and secure APOD

• BPT provide support to civilian agencies

• Conduct Foreign Internal Defense (FID) with Ayland & Beland CT forces

ESSENTIAL TASKS

• Secure the borders and maintain buffer zone
• Facilitate HA/DR operations
• Execute mission handoff to appropriate authorities

INITIAL FORCE STRUCTURE ANALYSIS

RISK ASSESSMENT

• Mission Accomplishment Risks / Mitigation:

• HA / DR efforts inadequate -
• Provide secure environment; respond to RFAs
• Mission essential failures due to Extreme Cold Weather
• Identify mission essential equipment; prioritize winterization preparations; develop backup / recovery plans
• Preposition supplies
• Disease
• Preventative & Operational Medical measures
• Terrorist
• CT operations
• High force-protection procedures
• IO Campaign
• Mines -
• Awareness training; de-mining operations

END STATE

• Strategic End State conditions

• Peace & security established in Ayland & Beland

• Operational (military) End State conditions

• Secure & stable environment
• Alleviate immediate disaster related health issues
• Substantially restore infrastructure critical to HA efforts
• Border regime & BZ are operational & effective
• Effective CT measures in place
• Transition tasks to Ayland, Beland &/or PKF

PROPOSED CTF RESTATED MISSION

COMMAND & CONTROL PROPOSED INITIAL CCIRs

• PIR

• Accurate predictions of Dzud conditions or extreme weather in AO
• Locations, intentions & capabilities of TPFDL
• Non-compliance by parties to UB Agreement

• FFIR

• Accurate assessment of HA/DR requirements
• Operational capabilities of all MNF units
• Status of LLOCs into/out of AO
• UN/NGO/IO capabilities to support HA/DR

• EEFI

• Counter-terrorism capabilities and disposition
• MNF scheme of maneuver & timing
• Communication networks
• QRF disposition

COMMANDER’S GUIDANCE

CPG-1 Guidance

• Under a CTF HQ:

• Main Effort: Security & HA/DR in zone
• Establish TF-A (in Ayland) & TF-B (in Beland)
• Examine organizing subordinate TF components by either function or mission; recommend procedures for coordination of air assets
• Supporting Effort: Establish TF-CT (MAF)
• Mission: CT in AO

CPG-2 Guidance

• Under a CTF HQ:

• Organize CTF components by service (i.e., CARFOR, CAFFOR, CMARFOR, etc.)
• Main effort: BZ maintenance, CT campaign & security
• Supporting effort: HA / DR, CMO

CPG-3 Guidance

• CTF is established as a Coalition Civil Military Operations Task Force (CCMOTF)

• Main effort: Civil-military Operations
• Supporting effort: security
• Organization: IAW MNF SOP, Chapter C-7, Figure C-7-A-1, CCMOTF Organizational Model

CPG-4 Guidance