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Technological Forecasting & Social Change
50 years of TF&SC
University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, United States of America
– State University of New York, United States of America
A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
On Technological Forecasting & Social Change's 50th birthday, the journal's second and current Editor-in-Chief
remarks on TF&SC's progress, the changes in the technological, cultural, and geopolitical environments in which
the journal operates, TF&SC articles' changing topics and origins, and where future TF&SC volumes may lead.
1. TF&SC's 50th birthday
We celebrate 50 years of a journal that has had an impact in nearly
every corner of the world. In this anniversary essay I update
by remarking on our journal's further pro-
gress, the immense changes in the technological and geopolitical en-
vironments in which the journal operates, the changing topic areas (and
geographical origins) of the articles that
ﬁll our pages, and where future
TF&SC volumes may take us.
When I succeeded Founding Editor-in-Chief Hal Linstone as EIC in
2011, I was proud that TF&SC articles were downloaded 375,000 times
per year. By 2018, annual downloads were 1.2 million. I seem to re-
member the journal receiving 450 manuscript submissions in 2011 (up
from 200-some during my earlier years as editorial board member). In
2018 we received nearly 1900.
Concomitant with the rise in individual article downloads has been
the near-disappearance of subscriptions to the paper journal. Other
changes since 2011 were our move from numerical reference callouts to
Harvard style, 1-column to 2-column pages, and nine issues per year to
Oddly for a journal that was started in the USA, manuscript sub-
missions from Europe and Asia (which are similar in number) now
outnumber submissions from the USA about
ﬁve to one.
speculate that it is due to the falling out of fashion of industrial policy in
the US since 1980, the defunding of the O
ﬃce of Technology Assess-
ment in 1990, and the fact that Asian and European university de-
partments of technology management far outnumber those in the US.
Following seven years living in Asia, I returned to the USA last year,
and I hope to increase the journal's stature in my home country. I am
grateful to the University of New Mexico for welcoming me and for
hosting the HQ of TF&SC.
TF&SC's birth year fell in the middle of the Cold War. The post-
WWII balance of economic power fell nearly exclusively to the United
States. War was raging in Vietnam, purportedly against communism,
and the contrast between communism and capitalism seemed simple,
with each philosophy appearing monolithic. Now we see diverse vari-
eties of communism in China, Vietnam, Cuba and North Korea. It
quickly became clear that there is more than one brand of capitalism,
too, manifesting in various countries, much of the di
them having to do with policies and approaches to technological in-
Thanks largely to new communication and transport technologies, a
visitor from 1969 would hardly recognize our 2019 private-sector or-
ganizations and industrial structure. Bricks have gone to clicks. Service
Received 15 October 2018; Received in revised form 9 March 2019; Accepted 11 March 2019
University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, United States of America
Germany, Netherlands, and Australia. These counts are based on location of corresponding author, and as most of our papers currently have multi-national authorial
teams, should not be taken too literally. Happily we are starting to receive papers from Central Asian, African, and Latin American countries not represented in TF&SC
in the past.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 143 (2019) 125–131
Available online 28 March 2019
0040-1625/ © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
ﬁrms and new technology startups dominate the scene. US manu-
facturing has o
ﬀshored. Mass customization has put paid to economies
of scale. Small and large companies enjoy equally low transaction costs.
The Coasian model and
“Schumpeter II” are on their last legs.
Further, as Peter Drucker foresaw, capitalist society has segued to-
ward a knowledge society. Resistance to this shift, coming from people
with much capital and little knowledge, will likely remain prominent
for decades to come. Yet it is the knowledge society that has the greater
potential to back us away from terminal ecological crisis.
In another shift, the US government's postwar deal with American
– virtually unlimited research grants as thanks for the suc-
cessful Manhattan Project
– has given way to shrunken sci-tech budgets
and the government's
“Yes, but what have you done for us lately?”
stance toward researchers
– and even worse, the outright suppression of
science, for instance at the Environmental Protection Agency.
The American century has given way to the Asian century. The
Chinese economy has equaled that of the US on many dimensions. More
and more TF&SC manuscripts come from Asia. Patent activity and
world manufacturing capacity have shifted Eastward.
Our journal has constantly adjusted.
2. Technology: Promises and pitfalls
ﬃliated with TF&SC often have to explain that the journal
addresses all kinds of technology, not just information technology. That
said, the journal was born at the start of the modern information age,
and grew up with it. In 1969, when men
ﬁrst landed on the Moon and
ﬁrst issue was printed, computing was done on mainframes. No
personal computers. No cellular telephones, much less smartphones. No
– music, like almost everything else in ‘69, was analog.
Text-based computer-to-computer communication was e
ARPAnet, an Internet precursor available only to the US military and
selected university researchers.
The journal has grown alongside the information age,
chronicling the start of the molecular and biological age, and illumi-
nating the interplay of social change with advances in med-tech, bio-
tech, nanotech, space tech, environmental tech, telecomm, agri-tech,
and other socio-technical areas including disaster response and pre-
paredness. Our authors have researched the environmental situation,
then a fringe issue (the
ﬁrst Earth Day was in 1970), and now a front-
page, contentious and dangerous problem.
Social trends enabled by information/communication technology,
e.g., crowdsourcing and crowdfunding (
Brem et al., 2018
), are chan-
ging the very ways in which innovation happens. Though we do not
now live like the Jetsons after all, life in 2019 would seem like science
ﬁction to a time-traveler from 1969. In that year, the word “tech-
” was not in the common vocabulary of anyone not deeply in-
volved with the military-industrial complex. Since, we have experi-
enced the dawn, growth, and glitter of Silicon Valley, with its promise
of new technologies that would bene
ﬁt us all. More recently, we have
seen a growing public skepticism about the bene
ﬁts of continued
– and less tolerance for the side-eﬀects of
Akio Morita (Sony Walkman) and Steve Jobs (Macintosh, iPhone)
ﬁlled true latent consumer desires. No one begrudged them
the resulting riches. Today's tech unicorns seek to scale prematurely, in
order to chase a possibly illusory
ﬁrst-mover advantage. Purveyors of
autonomous vehicles, for example, seek to dominate new markets by
force majeure, regardless of consumer wants, and sometimes, regardless
of the law. Income inequality has worsened, and is no longer seen by
the majority as fair or acceptable.
ﬁrms' growing employee base overruns traditional and
ethnic neighborhoods, notably in San Francisco, Seattle, and Austin.
“success” of AirBnB drives Amsterdam natives, exasperated by
crowds of tourists, out of their city each summer.
Environmental degradation, due to the e
ﬄuents of both traditional
and new industries, a
ﬀects the livelihoods, homes, and health of more
people than ever before. As does increasingly violent weather due to
Recent years have seen the introduction of technology platforms
that purport to be for the public good, but prove to have more nefarious
intent. 2018's (leaking of users' personal information) scandal is a case
in point. Another is a face-recognition system touted for being able to
know, for instance, when a person under an outstanding arrest warrant
passes through a train station. The Big Brother potential of the latter is
Since the days of snake oil hawkers, vendors have claimed phony
ﬁts, for proﬁt. Now, though, we see phony beneﬁt claims with
underlying motives of social control and political maneuvering. We
need a name for this kind of technological malfeasance, and we need
research that addresses it.
We do have a name for fraud. The past 50 years have brought so
many technological wonders that people will now believe anything. As
a result, the founders of Theranos enjoyed brief fame and riches. Later
in this essay I will return to this phenomenon of
We do have names for anti-intellectualism and deliberate mis-
direction. Fifty years after the amazing and inspiring Moon landing, the
occupant of the White House wants a US Space Force
– while he si-
multaneously denigrates and defunds the scienti
ﬁc research that would
make it possible
– and while what we more urgently need is an ex-
panded Cyber Force.
Far more subtle is the
“nudge” idea of
Thaler and Sunstein (2009)
which steers people to the
“right” decision by inﬂuencing the decision
environment. Somewhat benign applications of nudge include giving
the little boy in all of us a
ﬂy decal to aim at in the urinal, and opt-out
rather than opt-in for processes like voter registration. This too has the
potential for misuse, for example, candidates jockeying to be
ballot because undecided voters tend to tick the
ﬁrst box. Could pro-
fessional society standards, e.g., those of the American Psychological
Association, provide ethical guidelines for nudges?
Our technological future is being designed by engineers and pro-
grammers who are badly in need of socialization. The situation is made
worse by the death of lifetime employment, motivating techies to de-
sign things that will impress their next employer (who is also a techie),
rather than products that serve a market or bene
ﬁt society. These
forces, as much as Trumpian anti-intellectualism, do much to explain
the public's declining opinion of the tech industry.
3. TF&SC's focuses
3.1. Technology as an economic driver
Technological Forecasting & Social Change has long recognized that
technological change and socio-economic change drive each other re-
ciprocally. Unlike most economics journals, our journal has been a
congenial home for papers exploring this interaction. Prominent among
these are articles addressing the long wave, a phenomenon originally
documented by Kondratie
ﬀ and embraced later, with modiﬁcations, by
Schumpeter and Kuznets.
It is likely that because we welcomed such papers (e.g.,
Linstone and Devezas, 2012
), the Russian Academy
of Sciences and the Kondratie
ﬀ Foundation have awarded the N.D.
ﬀ Medal to a number of current and former TF&SC board
members, namely Brian Berry, Tessaleno Devezas, George Modelski,
In those decades, the cost of transmission bandwidth decreased even as
Moore's Law marched on, but the two trends were not always in lockstep.
Accordingly, we lived through waves of centralized and decentralized com-
puting: Mainframes with local I/O, dumb terminals, stand-alone PCs,
” more powerful PCs, client-server computing, and now the cloud. I'm
very surprised no one has tried to model this with a Lotka-Volterra.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 143 (2019) 125–131
and myself, as well as to repeat TF&SC contributors Andrey Korotayev
and Leonid Grinin. These names do in fact comprise a very large frac-
tion of the total number of Kondratie
ﬀ Medals ever awarded.
It is to be hoped that the Nobel Memorial Prizes in Economic
Sciences awarded to Solow (in 1987), Ostrom (in 2009), and Romer (in
2018) will, cumulatively, persuade the rest of the economics profession
to embrace technology and sustainability as central concerns.
3.2. S-curves and innovation di
We have published no end of variations on s-shaped di
curves, and, from our marketing-oriented authors, market penetration
curves that use the same equations but di
ﬀerent terminology. The
mirrored, dual s-shapes of the Fisher-Pry curve,
ﬁrst published here,
and the Bass model,
ﬁrst published elsewhere but often elaborated here,
have been particularly important. Applications of system dynamics and
the Lotka-Volterra model generated still more sinusoidal patterns in
tech-tech and socio-tech interactions.
Such papers will continue, not in order to beat a dead horse, but as
counterpoints to the popular literature touting
“exponential” this and
We remind readers that Earthly life involves
asymptotes. We'll save
“exponential” for the future age of space ex-
ploration, in which resources will be e
The curves also show us that uptake of newest tech seems to have
been accelerating; See
This is doubtless due to a combination of
ﬀects, generally better communication and distribution
(perhaps including Amazon's overnight delivery), greater general
wealth, and wider blanketing of more appealing advertising.
In the same manner, we now see faster translation of scienti
discovery into engineering achievement. Examples come from crypto-
graphy, quantum computing, and genetics. I conjecture that the
Leapfrog Theory of Scienti
ﬁc Progress (
Learner and Phillips, 1993
Phillips and Linstone, 2016
) explains this. In the ongoing game of
leapfrog among the four aspects of scienti
ﬁc advance, the Data frog (see
the section below) and the Methodology frog are, at this moment, in
front of the Theory and Problems frogs. Methodology has jumped ahead
due to terri
ﬁc recent advances in instrumentation, precision machining,
memory and computing cycles, and such advances as CRISPR. Unlike
the situation in Babbage's time, when computing Theory could not be
instantiated in a mechanical computer due to imprecise machining
(Methodology), the advanced methodologies mentioned above are now
ready and waiting to instantiate new theories and discoveries.
“The appeal of the algorithm overshadowed its lack of eﬃcacy.”
This sentence from
, though directed at a British police
agency that bought a ridiculously nonfunctional AI surveillance system,
applies more broadly to the current hype concerning arti
“Despite a lack of scientiﬁc evidence to support such claims,”
“companies are selling algorithms to police forces and
governments that can supposedly
‘predict’ whether someone is a ter-
rorist or a pedophile based on his or her facial characteristics alone.
documents the ways in which AIs are easy to mislead
and to hack.
AIs operating on retail
“big data” fare little better than the police
system. They solicit me to book air tickets for itineraries I have already
purchased. Social media urge me to
“friend” people who have been
dead for years. Thus the news that child welfare agencies are using
predictive algorithms to decide when kids might not be safe with their
is, to say the least, scary.
Yet companies as well as public agencies are embracing, selling,
buying, and touting purported business AI capabilities. The psychology
that drives this behavior, according to
” a general belief that robots are inherently smarter than humans.
The bias probably stems from highly visible triumphs of narrow AI like
the Jeopardy win, and from the public's hazy grasp of the di
between narrow and general AI.
writes that several companies that tout their AI cap-
abilities are faking it.
“Pseudo-AI” or “hybrid AI” has humans standing
ﬁll the gaps in interactions between machines and the public. This
is no surprise; as Hal and I have said on several occasions, computer-
aided is often a better bet than computerized.
“Collaboration with human workers may be the most productive and
ﬃcient [AI] model for the medium and even long term.” That
implies much for calculations of AI-related job losses, which may be
overstated if hybrid AI becomes the norm.
“we invest too much
in AI and too little in developing the human mind.
” Forgive me for
reminding you that you read that warning in
. In this
vein, we ignore at our peril the environmental hazards that impair
human cognitive function.
writes in the New York Times that
“prolonged exposure to air pollution in China is causing signiﬁcant
ﬁcits…. The evidence is reﬂected in performance on math
and word recognition tests, so the impact is on practical work-related
skills. And it especially impacts men.
Because robots and IoT devices are networked and thus capable, in
principle, of authoritarian surveillance and control, Harari (again ac-
cording to Gaulkin)
“thinks we can avoid the worst outcomes by en-
couraging decentralization of data.
” This echoes system principles of
centralization/decentralization put forth in
Linstone and Phillips
and in years past by system theorist Sta
ﬀord Beer and philoso-
pher Karl Popper.
These threats of AI have appeared, and more will appear in the
future. Programmers, accustomed to denotative meaning, have started
to see that connotation, nuance and context are important for AI
have no idea whatsoever of the depth and subtlety of nuance and
context. Our journal, with one foot in engineering and one foot in social
science, does its best to bridge this gap, even adding ventures into the
humanities, viz., Mitro
ﬀ's and Coates' contributions on ethics.
I have given up my hobby of collecting trend crossovers,
I myself have written (
), almost every aspect of life is now
multi-faceted. We will no longer see clear-cut instances of
“A has sur-
” Instead, we see that a particular aspect of A is doing better
than a certain aspect of B. Some measures of the Chinese economy have
surpassed the same measure of the US economy; the Methodology frog
has carried many but not all methodologies ahead of Theory; an AI
specialized for task X now does task X better than humans.
Narrow AI will outshine humans on more and more particular tasks
as time passes. Its bene
ﬁcial use in data and text mining, bibliometrics
and literature-based discovery has been prominent in Technological
Forecasting & Social Change, notably in the works of board members
Porter, Kajikawa, Cunningham, and Kosto
General AI, and thus the
“singularity,” are not in sight.
Diamandis and Kotler (2012)
. Those authors may be right about
electronic and DNA-based stored data, the growth of which may remain ex-
ponential for some time to come. The intellectual capabilities of arti
telligences may also grow without foreseeable bound
– though we cannot call it
exponential, as we have no way to measure intelligence levels much higher than
attributes this graph to Michael Felton of the New York Times.
The entire collection is at
scripts, due to writers eager to apply a new technique rather than eager to
answer a substantive research question or, as in this special issue, to trace the
development of a
ﬁeld of inquiry on a signiﬁcant anniversary.
3.4. Multiple perspectives
Hal Linstone pushed the multiple-perspectives idea in many spee-
ches and articles. The upper-right quadrant of
legitimate perspectives will arise in any modern complex-complex
problem. What to do with them?
These paragraphs from
Linstone and Mitro
, two of the most
brilliant I've ever read, highlight the problem.
… the problem of drug use and addiction…. [To an edu-
cator] the problem is one of educating young people and their fa-
milies to the dangers of drug use
…. In the language of economics,
the problem is the huge pro
ﬁts associated with the production and
consumption of illegal substances
…. In the language of social work,
the problem is the breakdown of the family, the lack of male role
models, and so on. In medical terms, the problem is one of treating
the physiology of drug addiction. For the criminal justice system, the
… money for policing. For psychology, [it] is the despair
of people in inner cities and the associated problems of low self-
…. Each [discipline] uses diﬀerent variables to structure the
‘problem,’ and consequently collects very diﬀerent kinds of data.
Action taken to advance one group's success metrics will exacerbate
the problems as they are seen by the other groups. The social
worker's free meal center for street addicts will, from the perspective
of the city planner, make an already undesirable neighborhood even
less attractive to business investment, and, to the economist, create
a disincentive to gainful employment.
Our challenge now is to
ﬁnd ways to get diverse participants to
agree ab initio on what would constitute improvement, and what would
– and then take action to attack the problem. This
will be preferable to one of the professions in the above paragraphs
imposing a solution that will be met with recrimination from the others,
Scenario methods for forecasting and foresight were a particular
love of Hal's. Numerous papers and special issues on scenario methods,
which are key to decision making in the upper right quadrant of
Recognition goes to George Wright and his colleagues, and to Murray
ﬀ and his, who have driven the recent scenario-related special is-
3.6. Innovation systems and transitions
We have and continue to be a prime (and highly cited) outlet for
work on technological transitions (e.g.
Verbong and Geels,
Brem and Radziwon, 2017
Rogge et al., 2018
). This idea, ori-
ginating in Europe, informed EU policy-making (
) and more
recently crossed the Atlantic to appear in the pages of Science (
et al., 2017
). The underlying idea of socio-technical innovation systems
and their development in technological areas was a key topic in TF&SC
in recent years and will remain so in the future.
Recent special issues on transitions were guest-edited by Berkhout,
Hof, and van Vuuren, and by Frantzeskaki. Advisory Board member
Rob Raven, expert in transitions, stepped up to an Associate Editor role
in 2018, in order to help keep TF&SC on the forefront of this
Linstone and Phillips (2013)
urged that management attention be
directed to forestalling complexity rather than managing it. Yet clearly
this is not always possible. What has not received enough attention in
TF&SC is the fact (e.g.,
Prigogine and Nicolis, 1985
) that complex
systems can be self-organizing. They are not always catastrophic. At-
tractors can be periodic as well as static or chaotic, viz. the long waves
mentioned elsewhere in this essay.
Obviously human society has organized spontaneously (if not al-
ways successfully), as has the business
ﬁrm that publishes this journal. I
await papers that use complexity theory, rigorously, to look at self-or-
ganization in the context of technological and social change.
3.8. Environment and energy
Our stream of articles on these topics has ranged from predictions of
electricity demand to (often controversial) takes on the integrated as-
sessment models of climate. With nuclear and biological warfare and
environmental degradation constituting the most pressing challenges to
human survival, it is urgent that a high-quality stream of energy/en-
vironment research continues to appear in this journal.
Fig. 1. Penetration of new technology products is faster than in earlier decades. (Source:
“Just do it”
Fig. 2. A classi
ﬁcation of decision problems and constructive responses.
This version of the Figure is adapted from the Strategic Decision Group's.
3.9. Systems, forecasting, and operations research
Many scholars of technology management came to the
operations research, as did Hal and I. The two
ﬁelds seldom reference
each other these days. (Hal once pointed out a Management Science
article that mentioned
“a journal called Technological Forecasting &
” – as if Management Science readers had never heard of
us.) The split is unfortunate, and I hope for reconciliation. The link
between the two, clearly, is decision science.
A simple example will demonstrate. Operations researchers
out how to draw and solve decision trees. In these trees, chance nodes
generate branches with probabilities (of various partial outcomes) at-
tached to them. Where do the probabilities come from? O.R. texts hand-
wave this question away, appearing to assume the numbers are
But obviously it is forecasters like us who must generate these prob-
abilities. With probability p the resource will be found, or not (1-p). The
needed technology will be developed on time (p), or not (1-p).
Let's bring O.R. and technology forecasting together again.
TF&SC papers have migrated toward
's upper right quadrant,
as the problems we face and address have become more cross-cultural,
systemic and global. In order to reconcile our
ﬁelds of study, our O.R.
colleagues will have to step outside the comfortable lower right quad-
– even as O.R. drifts more and more in the direction of “analytics” –
and join us, at least sometimes, in the upper right.
Applause goes to Gerald Midgley,
who with his colleagues Angela
Espinosa and Giles Hindle organized systems thinking sessions at the
2018 Operational Research Society Conference. He writes,
…want to establish systemic approaches to stakeholder engage-
ment, problem structuring and modeling as core elements of main-
stream OR practice. Here is why:
…. In 2017, the United Nations (UN), the World Health
Organization (WHO) and the Organization for Economic Co-opera-
tion and Development (OECD) all publically declared systems
thinking to be a key leadership skill that is necessary to deal with the
fundamental interconnectedness of complex, local-to-global eco-
nomic, social and environmental issues.
…. Practitioners must think seriously about how they can transform
OR practice to better address the complexities of an increasingly
interconnected world, where stakeholders with di
often collide. If OR practitioners fail in this regard, they will
themselves largely excluded from dealing with the most serious
challenges in today's societies.
I frequently read assertions that facts are readily available on the
Internet, and that therefore educators should downplay the teaching of
facts, in favor of teaching systems, i.e., how to connect disparate facts
together. This somewhat meritorious argument overlooks two key
ﬁrst, that we still need people with in-depth understanding of a
ﬁeld (i.e., one consisting of closely related facts), and second,
that 90% of so-called facts on the Internet are ill-informed, nonsensical,
or outright fake.
A professor's principal value will be to sift online
content and steer students to the solid and worthwhile portions
then to help students draw connections.
The journal also informs readers about the pioneers and leaders of
forecasting and assessment in the
ﬁelds mentioned above. In 2016 we
celebrated the life of Hal Linstone (
) and issued a mem-
orial volume of reprints of the TF&SC contributions of Joe Coates
(Volume 113, 2016). Hal had earlier memorialized Buckminster Fuller,
and Hal's RAND Corp. colleague Herman Kahn. In 2018 we published a
special issue honoring the contributions of Robert Ayres, on the occa-
sion of his 80th birthday. The present issue contains a retrospective on
the work of Seabury Colum Gil
3.11. The developing world
TF&SC has encouraged foresight and innovation system activity and
publication in the BRICs and in emerging economies, for example, with
special issues on technology di
ﬀusion and national innovation systems
in India, Iran, and African countries and regions. It has been a pleasant
duty to bring brilliant authors from those regions into the TF&SC circle.
4. Submissions to TF&SC
complains that journals o
ﬀer “too much band-
wagon science and not enough diversity of ideas.
” Another editor has
urged authors to show him, via their manuscripts, where their
and should be going
– rather (he implies) than showing him how adding
a moderating variable to a model will yield another half percent of
I embrace these remarks. Technological Forecasting & Social Change
has and will continue to publish articles of importance. I say this not
from snobbishness but from necessity. We receive more than 1900
manuscript submissions per year and can publish but a few.
chosen articles' contribution to knowledge must be substantial, not in-
Moreover, more important articles are cited more frequently.
lists the most cited articles published in 2013
Hal Linstone maintained we are moving from the information age to
the molecular age. While TF&SC papers must continue to address
growth pains of the information age (cyber-hoaxes, security, privacy,
automation bias, etc.), other TF&SC papers must look ahead to describe
what society will look like, under advancement and di
ﬀusion of bio-
logical technologies, nano-tech, and quantum tech
– and their con-
vergence with info tech and AI.
5. TF&SC's next challenges
Unlike in 1969, the word
‘technology,’ and arguments about tech-
nology's impacts, are now on everyone's tongue-tip, daily. A number of
other technology management journals have appeared, and more re-
cently journals in traditional areas of strategy, economics, and mar-
keting are publishing more technology-oriented articles. Technological
Forecasting & Social Change has brought scholarly and policy attention
to the interplay of technological and social change. We must not con-
ﬁght a battle that has already been won.
Though Elsevier has enabled TF&SC articles to be published online
immediately upon acceptance, the peer-review process leaves us with a
clock-speed disadvantage, relative to the daily output of Wired and its
ilk. Online publications like Digital Tonto, The Verge, Re/code, and many
more, quickly bring tech trends to the public eye, even as the major
business magazines (Forbes, The Economist) and the remaining major
newspapers have evolved to do likewise.
What battle should TF&SC engage now, and what can we bring to
ﬁeld that is unique? The Board and I will continue to ponder.
This is a manifestation of Sturgeon's Law:
“90% of everything [in any ﬁeld of
endeavor] is crap.
number of Associate Editors and changed a number of work
Thanks to Associate Editor Yu-Shan Su for suggesting some of these changes,
and thanks also to the Elsevier sta
ﬀ for facilitating them.
Articles with implications of more restricted scope should be very short,
and submitted as Research Notes.
Subject to the usual cautions, we can say it will look quite exciting. See e.g.
Bub and Bub (2018)
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 143 (2019) 125–131
Our articles on methodologies remain signi
ﬁcant contributions to
Our impact assessment articles typically show more imagination and
rigor, if less immediacy, than those in the aforementioned maga-
Short-form journalism allows exploration of trends; TF&SC authors
are able to research interactions among trends.
Our well-considered approaches to the future give us wide cred-
ibility. Our readers know we are here to inform them rather than
Our standard of readability nonetheless makes our articles easily
accessible to policy makers.
Our informal partnerships with a number of conference series give
our authors access to ideas that are ahead of the curve.
Our Video Abstracts and Research Highlights, though little-used by
authors so far, are bridges between TF&SC and the popular and
A funded institute of TF&SC (its current status just a gleam in the
editor's eye) would enable full-time researchers to produce in-depth
If the term
“technology” was rarely heard in ‘69, “technology
” was even less so. By 2018, according to
technology management had become the second most demanded MBA
concentration worldwide. We have made an impact.
Will TF&SC's future be
“like its past, only more so”? Frankly, I ex-
pect the future to be di
Appreciation goes to the FITE Department of the University of New
Mexico's Anderson School of Management for providing a research as-
sistant to support the preparation of this special anniversary issue. The
Editor-in-Chief is grateful also to Professor U.N. Umesh for taking on
guest editor responsibilities attending to this issue.
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Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ
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TF&SC most-cited articles, 2013
The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?
Frey C.B.,Osborne M.A.
Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets
for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals
Riahi K.,Kriegler E.,Johnson N.,Bertram C.,den Elzen M.,Eom J.,Schae
ﬀer M.,Edmonds J.,Isaac
M.,Krey V.,Longden T.,Luderer G.,Mejean A.,McCollum D.L.,Mima S.,Turton H.,van Vuuren
D.P.,Wada K.,Bosetti V.,Capros P.,Criqui P.,Hamdi-Cherif M.,Kainuma M.,Edenhofer O.
The choice of innovation policy instruments
Borras S.,Edquist C.
Toward an e
ﬀective framework for building smart cities: Lessons from Seoul
and San Francisco
Lee J.H.,Hancock M.G.,Hu M.-C.
The cost of additive manufacturing: Machine productivity, economies of scale
Baumers M.,Dickens P.,Tuck C.,Hague R.
The role of social support on relationship quality and social commerce
From rapid prototyping to home fabrication: How 3D printing is changing
business model innovation
Rayna T.,Striukova L.
Social innovation: Moving the
ﬁeld forward. A conceptual framework
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight
under deep uncertainty
Kwakkel J.H.,Pruyt E.
Unlocking value for a circular economy through 3D printing: A research agenda
Despeisse M.,Baumers M.,Brown P.,Charnley F.,Ford S.J.,Garmulewicz A.,Knowles S.,Minshall
T.H.W.,Mortara L.,Reed-Tsochas F.P.,Rowley J.
Kortenkamp and Faust (2018)
show the falsity of earlier consensus that it is
only the amounts of individual industrial chemicals in our environment that
have health impacts. Rather, they demonstrate, it is the combinations of che-
micals that determine health hazards. Their work implies that other threats,
too, may have roots in unseen or unacknowledged complexity.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 143 (2019) 125–131
Prigogine, I., Nicolis, G., 1985. Self-organisation in nonequilibrium systems: towards a
dynamics of complexity. In: Hazewinkel, M., Jurkovich, R., Paelinck, J.H.P. (Eds.),
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Rogge, K.S., P
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scenarios: The case of the low-carbon transition of the German electricity system
–2050). Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang.
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Sanwal, A., 2017. Gradually then suddenly. CB Insights
Shane, J., 2018. The way to tell if a bot is actually a human. Slate Retrieved September
10, 2018, from.
Tangermann, V., 2018. A CRISPR future. In: Futurism, January 30.
Thaler, R.H., Sunstein, C.R., 2009. Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth,
and Happiness. Penguin Books
Verbong, G.P., Geels, F.W., 2010. Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity
sector with socio-technical pathways. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (8),
Fred Phillips is Editor-in-Chief of Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Professor at
University of New Mexico, Visiting Professor at SUNY Stony Brook, and Visiting Scientist
at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 143 (2019) 125–131
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