Data Revisions and the Employment Report

The Economy’s Inexorable Forward March – Despite Emerging Conundrums

• The Economy’s Inexorable Forward March – Despite Emerging Conundrums

Data Revisions and the Employment Report

Prediction Vs. Reality

Global Rig Count Peaked in 1981

• Global Rig Count Peaked in 1981

• Tanker Transportation Limits

• Oil Refining Capacity Limits

• New Oil Investments are a Two Decade Cycle

Alternate Fuels Become Viable at a Sustained Price of $35/barrell, Which Leads to a Reduction in Crude Oil Demand

• Alternate Fuels Become Viable at a Sustained Price of $35/barrell, Which Leads to a Reduction in Crude Oil Demand

• Higher Prices Reduce Demand by Itself:

• Conservation
• Change in Driving Habits
• Lower Speed Limits

• New Supplies Rush into the Market in Response to High Prices:

• Tar Sands in Alberta
• Oil-Rigs Erected in Our Backyards!

GM Has Lost 75% of its Market Value Since Spring of 2000

• GM Has Lost 75% of its Market Value Since Spring of 2000

• Legacy Cost of $1600 Per Vehicle

• Union Contracts Make Labor a Fixed Cost

• Financing Arm Profits Were Financing Production Operations

• No “Oomph” Factor in its Products

Residential Construction A++

Commercial Construction A++

• Current $$ Projects:

• Fifth Runway ($5.4B)
• Atlantic Station ($2B)
• Allen Plaza ($300)
• Aquarium ($200M)
• 1180 P’tree ($100M)

Georgia Tax Collections A+

Small/Self Business Hiring A+

Base Realignment and Closure C

• 6 Georgia Facilities on Pentagon List

• Largest Recommended Closings in Atlanta

• Final List from BRAC Committed Released in Sept. 05

• Net-Net: Local Mero Pain But Georgia May Come Out Ahead

Balanced Growth is Expected; Foreign Partners Health is a Drag

• Balanced Growth is Expected; Foreign Partners Health is a Drag

• High Trade Deficits Will be the Norm in the Coming Years

• Local and State Job Prospects are Improving But Keep Your Fingers Crossed for Delta and Commercial Builders