February-March 02-03/2010 Economic Research Center
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- 02-03/2010 Projects
- Economic Research Center issued the inflationa indicators within January
- The recommendation packages on pension reforms were presented to state bodies
- Information base on foreign trade had been established
- The impacts of global financial crisis into business field had been investigated
- The results of inflation calculations within February had divulged by ERC
- The minimum consumer basket had been calculated
- The impacts of climate changes into agriculture field to be investigated
- Economic Research Center is under the process of determining activity directions for a new stage
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02-03/2010
Economic Research Center (ERC) has organized round table on “Current pension system and reforms in the Republic of Azerbaijan” in February 18, 2010. Local and international organizations, governmental bodies, embassies of foreign countries and as well as representatives of mass media have participated at the meeting. The round table has been dedicated to presentation and discussion of research report on “Current pension system and reforms in the Republic of Azerbaijan” within the “Evaluation of impact of state budget expenditures from macroeconomic equilibrium perspective on social field“ project implemented by ERC experts with financial support USAID, “Civil Society Development Project” and organizational assistance of National Budget Group. Gubad Ibadoglu, the chairman of ERC Management Board delivered first remarks at the meeting and provided information about implemented activities within the project and also emphasized the importance of reforms in pension system. According to him, current pension system of Azerbaijan, its establishment date, implemented reforms and achieved results were analyzed and possible scenarios and perspectives, as well as prepared recommendations were reflected in the report presented for discussion.
Fuad Rasulov, member of National Budget group and the chief author of research report presented it to the meeting participants. The history of world pension system, and the transmission process from “unanimity system” to “ individual” system, the implemented reforms in Azerbaijan and their essence, information on obtained results, including The history of world pension system, the transmission process from “unanimity system” to “individual” system, the implemented reforms in Azerbaijan and their essence, information regarding obtained results, including double sceneries in respect to possible perspectives had embodied in the report. www.erc-az.org
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After the presentation, round table carried on with discussions. Members of Milli Maclis Vahid Ahmadov, Nazim Mammadov, chairman of Traders and Producers’ Union Sevgim Rahmanov, chairman of Support for Economic Initiatives Public Union Azer Mehtiyev, chief of Public Association for Assistance to Free Economy Zohrab Ismayil, chief of department of State Social Defense Fund Idris Isayev and other seniors had participated at the discussions.
within January
Economic Research Center (ERC) presented the results of prices of statistical observation conducted in 22 regions of Azerbaijan throughout January 2010 within the framework of “Calculation of alternative inflations level and development of models” which is financed by SECO for February 19, 2010. According to the statistical observation conducted by ERC, at the first month of 2010 1,06 % inflaton has been recoreded in Azerbaijan. The Consumer Price Index was increased up to 1,43 % in Baku and in the regions up to 0,71 %. Compared to January of previous year, the price of consumer index had risen 3,25 %. Nevertheless, in comparison with January of 2009 the level of inflation in Azerbaijan had recorded as 3,25 %. During January, the most significant rise in price remain among fruit and vegetables arranged (6,25 %), sugar, tea and spice up to (3,86 %). Nevertheless, considerable fall in price have been recorded on non-food products, such as in construction materials (0,65 %). It should be noted that, the official statistical body proclaimed 0,5 % inflation for January 2010, compared to last year 1,8 % inflation has been recorded in Azerbaijan. Government predicts 3 % inflation till the end of current year.
presented to state bodies
Economic Research Center is pursuing its activity on “Evaluation of Impact of State Budget Expenses on Social Field from Macroeconomic Equilibrium Perspective” funded by Counterpart, Civil Society Project, Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation and organizational support provided by National Budget Group.
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02-03/2010
During the first term of current year, the research has been executed within the framework of “The current pension system and reforms of the Republic of Azerbaijan” project and the final report has been prepared and discussed. Furthermore, the final report was submitted to Social Defense Fund, Ministry of Labour and Social Protection of Azerbaijan Republic, Ministry of Economic Development and Research Institute on Labour Issues in order to retrieve their opinions related to this report. In addition to this, Fuad Rasulov, the expert of the project has held a meeting at State Social Defense Fund. The deputy chairman of Fund, Elman Mehdiyev, and including the head of the department Elshan Mammadaliyev also took part in this meeting. During the meeting, the discussion was conducted focusing on prepared political document by ERC and parties exchanged their point of views and opinions on this topic. Besides, representatives of the Fund have divulged their attitude to the document. In February 19, ERC has held a round table discussion within the framework of “The current pension system and reforms of the Republic of Azerbaijan” project. The representatives of local and international organizations, governmental entities, foreign embassies in Azerbaijan, including mass media took part at the event. The outcomes of the meeting have been elucidated at over 10 mass media and 3 TV networks. In February 27, the coordinator of the project Gubad Ibadoglu, including expert Fuad Rasulov, and chairman of “Elderly intellectuals Care Society” held debate on the topic of “The perspectives and problems of pension system in Azerbaijan” at the “Economic Forum” telecast in ANS TV.
Information base on foreign trade had been established
Economic Research Center with financial support of Open Society Institution Assistance Foundation pursues its activity regarding the implementation of “Mirror statistics and foreign trade of the Republic of Azerbaijan” research project. The main activity executed within the framework of the project which is unleashed in January was establishing information-statistic base for research issues. For this purpose, the methodology of the research was prepared and the geography of the countries involved for research was determined at the initial stage. Numerous criterias were taken into account for this aim. These are as follows:
The main partner countries in foreign trade of Azerbaijan, essentially countries in respect to import operations
Countries located in border with Azerbaijan and main non-partner countries www.erc-az.org
02-03/2010
Countries having considerable impact to world’s foreign trade policy ( USA, Japan and etc)
Countries which their import mainly dependent on raw materials ( Kazakhstan, etc)
The relevant structures and organizations of 15 countries selected based on above mentioned criterias was addressed for the aim of collecting information on bilateral trade with Azerbaijan during 2003-2009. Foreign trade statistics about 11 countries have been already accumulated. Simultaneously the information based on Azerbaijan’s official statistics in regard to bilateral trade of those countries had been obtained and comparative information base also had been established based on accumulation of information from both two parties- Azerbaijan and its trade partners. Currently, the conduction of calculations on accumulated information is being followed with increasing the numbers of countries involved in research. In addition, it is planned to acquire the results of initial version of research report and mirror statistics.
The impacts of global financial crisis into business field had been investigated
Economic Research Center jointly with North Caroline University of USA has conducted research entitled The Dutch Disease in Azerbaijan: A Disease after all?. The team of researchers financed by the U.S. Department of States has investigated impacts of Dutch disease in Azerbaijan. Businesses operating in Azerbaijan were surveyed to assess the impact of syndrome of production enterprises and its influence to producers. Analysis of survey was presented for Azerbaijani public in March 4, 2010. Moreover, the representatives and senior officials from state bodies, business entities, deputies, international organizations and foreign embassies in Azerbaijan, including local experts and Mass Media participated at the conference jointly organized by ERC and Entrepreneurship Development Fund. First, Dr. Rasim Huseynov, member of ERC Management Board spoke on macro-economic impact of global financial crisis. As he stated, 2009 was a tough period for Azerbaijan’s economy in the last decade. Afterwards, Mr. Ibadoglu, chairman of ERC Management Board presented the results of the business survey. First of all, he outlined the characteristics of companies engaged at survey and according to him respondents who are involved at research come from various enterprise fields, such as 25% from service spheres, 17% trade, 16 % finance, bank and insurance system, 13 %
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02-03/2010
from processing field, 7 % construction, 6 % communication, 3 % agriculture, and eventually 2 % are operating at mine industry. Eighty percent of survey participants underlined feeling negative impact of global financial crisis however, 20 percent stated they have not subjected to crisis. 47,54 percent of respondents who chose first answer stated they have felt global financial crisis impacts since 2008, and 52,46 percent replied crisis became influence them since 2009. Due to calculate actual impacts of crisis the changes on financial indication evolution before the crisis and also within crisis period were requested from survey participants during the research period. It was clarified that, 33,8 % of companies’ profits coming from sale were arranging over 30 percent and 38,2 % of companies’ incomes were growing between 5-30 percent, however during the crisis period it was on the contrary, 28 % of respondents’ profits were arranging over 30 percent, and 60,3 % of respondents’ profits started decreasing between 5-30 figures. The similar tendency has been observed in regard to full time employees. Furthermore, while before the crisis 22, 8 % of survey respondents increasing the quantity of full time employees over to 30 %, and 33,3 % between 5-30%, but during the crisis these figures have been shifted. So, 60 % of respondents decreased the quantity of employees to 5-30 % and 28 % of them reduced by 30 %. G.Ibadoglu underestimated that the official figures of State Statistical Committee of Azerbaijan Republic had impact to the existence of this tendency. G.Ibadoglu also emphasized that according to the information survey procured from Committee the quantity of reduced employees arrange 3037 in 2008, and 8747 persons for 2009. This means that just because of the impact of global financial crisis Azerbaijan’s economy has lost 3 times more job positions compared to last year.
After the presentation, the floor was opened for discussion and brainstorming. The representative of Independent Consumers Union Fariz Adigozalov, delegate from SECO Naila Safarova, including representative of Azerbaijan State Economic Unievrsity Muslim Ibrahimov, including member of Milli Maclis Nazim Mammadov, deputy chairman of Economic Initiatives Assistance Public Union Rovshan Agayev, and other experts held discussions around the topic. www.erc-az.org
02-03/2010
Economic Research Center had arranged “ ERC in 2009: final-repot conference” aiming to expose the realization of the organization commitments for 2009, program and financial activity related to this, as well as conducting report about current plans of 2010 for its audience in March 11, 2010. Besides, the conference aimed also assessing the obtained outcomes and investigating perspective approaches and collaboration facilities. G.Ibadoglu, chairman of ERC Management Board provided the participants with information regarding activities of Center. He stated that the main objective of Center is foster effective and sustainable civic engagement in all levels of public administration and thus more citizens’ access to the related information through building favorable interactions between the government and civil society. “The Center’s major research dimensions cover the issues on popularizing the economic and business knowledge in the society, enhancing transparency and accountability, public participation and decentralized governance issues. Therefore, the Center is conducting regular researches on analyzing state policy in the field of macro-economy and assessment of predictions, calculation, modulation and prediction of alternative indications aiming to preserve macro-finance stability, analysis of agrarian market, increase the process of budget transparency. The Center also fulfills researches on assessment of efficiency and outcomes of financing social programs (particularly, in the field of health and education) and as well as inspection of household budget”.
The research dimensions are grounded in the following fundamental belief: That the Effective teaching Methodology should entail a holistic approach to education issues, whether in economic field or otherwise, which can go far beyond conventional method of teaching;
That the New Public Management under decentralized governance should be based on inclusive policies and transparency;
That it is vital to keep people aware of evolving issues of nationwide interest or concern to ensure timely accountability on the side of public officials.
ERC has arranged effective collaboration with 13 donor organizations within the framework of 14 projects in 2009. In general, Center has also established effective and long lasting relations with multiple international organizations and networks, local civic societies, including state bodies. It is not only local sources that refer to ERC’s research but foreign mass media as well. (For instance: The Economist, Financial Times, CNN, AlJaazera etc.)
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02-03/2010
Furthermore, ERC has held 9 conferences (including 1 international conference), 9 round table discussions, 12 presentations and public discussions, 2 seminars and trainings and 1 radio debate. Over 30 local and foreign specialists, as well as representatives of international organizations and foreign embassies, including roughly 15 Mass Media took place. In addition, department on Public affairs of ERC had published 14 press releases within different spheres. The opinions and interviews of ERC experts in different matters elucidated between 70-80 times in a month at mass media. At the same time 9 informational bulletin related to ERC’s activities was published in two languages (Azerbaijan and English) and including 7 editions of “Expert” magazine has been published and distributed among partners. G.Ibadoglu further spoke about ERC’s challenges and also limitations that imposed on to civic society institutions: “Limitations of participation in state programs, weakness of partnership opportunities with private sector, existence of problems in development of Civil Society, shortage of human and financial resources, lack of journalism professionalism on writing economic articles, difficulties on placing information about ERC’s researches at electron Mass Media websites and telecasts due to their dependence from political power, including several conservative governmental officials’ avoidance from open discussions and debates with ERC experts and persecutions on to journalists and mass media structures who disseminate independent information are challenging aspects in front of ERC”. G.Ibadoglu responded to the questions of participants and the meeting continued with discussions.
divulged by ERC
Economic Research Center (ERC) presented the results of prices of statistical observation conducted in 22 regions of Azerbaijan during February of 2010 within the framework of “Calculation of alternative inflations level and development of models” which is financed by SECO www.erc-az.org
02-03/2010
for March 15, 2010. According to the statistical observation, 0,65 per cent inflation was registered at the second month of 2010 in Azerbaijan. As a consequence of this, 0,63 % inflation had recorded in Baku and at the regions this figure had arranged 0,68 %. Compared to the February of previous year, the index of consumer price in the country had increased up to 4, 02 %. In addition to this, the price of food products had risen up to 5,98 %, price of non-products went up om,03 % and rise in price within services had occurred 2, 39 %. During January, the most significant rise in price remain among fruit and vegetables arranged (4,73 %), sugar, tea and spice recorded (1,58 %). Nevertheless, considerable fall in price have been recorded on non-food products, such as clothes and shoes (1,04%). During February 2010/ February 2009 the prices in the capital had risen up to 6,32 % and in the regions it arranged 0,24 %. It should be noted that, the official statistical body proclaimed 1,1 % inflation for February 2010, compared to last year 2,8 % inflation has been recorded in Azerbaijan.
The minimum consumer basket had been calculated
Economic Research Center (ERC) issued the results of prices of statistical observations conducted in 22 regions throughout February 2010 within the framework of “Calculation of alternative inflation rate and development of models” funded by SECO. ERC has also calculated the rate of consumer basket for February based on standards endorsed under through the signed decree of Cabinet of Ministries of April 30, 2009. According to calculations of ERC experts, the minimum living standard in Azerbaijan was estimated at 148, 8 AZN. In addition to this, the minimum rate of consumer basket per person in labour force was estimated at 140,14 AZN, whereas in regard to pensioners this is estimated at 127,16 AZN, and 178, 67 AZN for children of 0-14 age. Moreover, labour force has spent 79,37 AZN per person on foodstuff, pensioners spent 73,25 AZN and parents of 0-14 age children spent 89,79 AZN on this category of goods over February. During the month, the minimum expenditures for purchasing non-food products in regard to market prices were estimated at 35,33 AZN for working people, at 31,53 AZN for pensioners, and at 71,32 AZN for the children of 0-14 age. Nevertheless, the service expenditures were recorded as 25,3 AZN, 22,38 AZN and 17,56 AZN respectively. It is worth mentioning that the decree of Milli Maclis stated the living standard for 2010 to have been calculated at 87 AZN, including 96 AZN labour force people, 68 AZN for pensioners and 72 AZN for the children of 0-14 age.
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02-03/2010
public relations
Economic Research Center has launched the so called “Assistance to Civil Society institutions on building effective public relations and provision of accountability issues” project under financial support of State Support Council in April. The aim of the project is building effective public relations, providing technical and methodical assistance for their institutional development through increasing NGOs knowledge and skills in the field of transparency and accountability. Certain targets have been determined in order to reach the objectives of the project. These are as follows:
Determining transparency and accountability principles that has vital importance on governance and action of NGOs based on utilizing ERC’s experience and international experience.
Preparation and dissemination of recommendations (it includes both foreign and also local communications of state, business, Milli Maclis, and mass media) in the field of building effective public relations and deliverance of information for NGOs.
Defining key problems and their solution ways existing in the relations of NGO-foreign organizations, NGO-business, NGO-governmental structures, NGO-Mass media, NGO-Parliament through conducting trainings and seminars and socializing obtained positive repercussions through establishing effective advocacy activity.
The impacts of climate changes into agriculture field to be investigated
Economic Research Center started implementing so called “Social-economic dangers caused by climate changes and management of risks” project won at the grant contest within the framework of Security and Civic Action on Environment of OSCE in April. The project will cover April- November 2010 and the aim of it is to calculate additional expenses and the scale of expected impacts of climate changes into economy, particularly into agriculture and refining industry, conduct researches towards assessing its defects, implement current policy based on delivering information in this field, increase public participation and improve practicality on decision-making. It is planned to increase the public participation, implementing preventive adjustment measures toward management of future risks, calculation additional expenses and the scale of expected impacts as a consequence of emerged natural disasters into agriculture within the framework of
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02-03/2010
implemented project in the Ganca-Khazak region. For this purpose, the political document embodying adjustment measures due to prevent expected loses will be prepared and submitted to relevant agencies and public. Nonetheless, series of trainings will be conducted among financial managers due to apply up-coming prepared methodology aiming to plan the expenses for future period and calculate of additional expenses emerged from the impact of climate changes. The public will be enlightened on climate change causes, damages derived from climate change into economy, and social life as well as planning the future expenses. Within the framework of the project, the conventions regarding protection of environment and climate changes that Azerbaijan had joined, including national legislation will be analyzed and as well as the assessment of commitments complied by government will be determined.
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02-03/2010
The serious problems generated from severe weather condition on infrastcuture and municipal economy of Baku had been brought into discussion by Economic Initiatives Assistance Public Union and Economic Research Center ( ERC) in Febrary 12. Local and international organizations, governmental bodies, political parties and Mass media representatives took part at the discussions. Three presentations were elucidated at the conference hall of Caspian Plaza. The deputy chairman of Economic Inititatives Assistance Public Unian Rovshan Agayev focused mainly on energy supplying system of Baku and regions, and the capacity and efficiecncy of investments allocated in this field. The chairman of ERC Management Board Gubad Ibadoglu delivered his presentation on investments allocated in transporation infrastrcutre based on state budget. The third presentation delivered by Azer Mehtiyev, the chairman of Economic Initiatives Assistance Public Union. He mainly concentrated on current problems existing in the field of gas, heat supplying system and other municipal service areas. After presentations, the head of administration apparatus of Musavat party Arif Hacili, expert on energy issues Ilham Shaban, coordinator of Municipal Alliance Amil Bayramov, lawyer Eldar Gocayev, director of gas Gas Supply Department of “ Azeriqaz” Production Union Vagif Namazov, deputy chief of “Azersu” Bahadir Kangarli and others took part at the discussion.
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02-03/2010
to be held in Baku
The seminar in the topic of “Economics of Financial Crisis” will be organized under program and financial support of Friedrich Naumann Foundation ( FNF) of Germany, and with organizational support of New Economic School of Georgia and Economic Research Center ( ERC) in Baku on April 19. Professor Pascal Salin, Emeritus Professor of economics at Paris – Dauphine University is going to be the main lecturer at the seminar. Furthermore, the members of partner organizations of FNF and ERC, representatives of economic bloc of Azerbaijan government, independent experts, scientific-academic seniors, including leading NGO and Mass media delegation are among participant list of the seminar. Professor Pascal Salin, will deliver lecture on the topics of “Theory of monetary systems”, “Theory of tax systems”, “Theory of business cycles and last financial crisis”, “Growth, economic stability and capitalism” and “The economic principles unheeded by politicians”.
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02-03/2010
***** The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu met with Ambassador of Switzerland in Azerbaijan Alain Guidetti. The parties mainly focused on discussing the fulfillment circumstance of state budget incomes and expenses, oil incomes and its transparency issues, including the impacts of global financial crisis to economy, entrepreneurship field and households.
***** The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu participated at the reception upon invitation by the head of the Delegation of European Commission to Azerbaijan, Ambassador Roland Kobia, in February 9. The Coordinator on Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and South Caucasus of the European Commission Karin Gatt-Rutter, the Head of Operations and Neighborhood Policy Section of EU Delegation Jan-Louis Lavroff, Head of social, economic and press department, First secretary Jerome Pons, Political Officer, Delegation of European Commission to Azerbaijan Manfredas Limantas also participated at this meeting. The social-economic situations in Azerbaijan, the last circumstances in the region, including the perspectives in cooperation with European institutions were discussed during the meeting.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu held meeting at the Embassy of the Republic of Italy in Azerbaijan, in February 15. During the meeting, the standing point of commercial relations between Azerbaijan and Italy, its statistical characteristics, as well as investment collaboration issues between two countries were discussed.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu met with deputy of Ambassador of Germany in Azerbaijan Peter Ziegler. The parties held discussions on the economic stance of Azerbaijan and the development spectrums of commercial ties and investment collaboration between two countries. Except this, the perspectives of Germany-Azerbaijan relations also being discussed at the meeting.
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02-03/2010 ***** The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu held meeting at the Embassy of Turkey in Azerbaijan in February 17. First secretary Riza Kagan Yilmaz, chief trade advisor Gazi Bilgin, chief economic advisor Cahit Buyukturk also participated at the meeting. The current stance of commercial-economic relations and investment cooperation and as well as its development perspectives between the Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Azerbaijan were discussed during the meeting.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu held meeting at the delegation of USAID in Azerbaijan in February 25. The chief Competitiveness Advisor of USAID Washington Office Neal Nathanson, chief advisor on financial market William Baldrige, and director of economic programs department of USAID Baku office Shiyla Yanq and also officer of the same department Aytan Khahramanova had participated at the meeting. The main topics of the discussion were entrepreneurship atmosphere in Azerbaijan, its emerging problems and perspectives.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu held appointments with Advisor and Alternate Senior Personnel Manager at the IMF's Research Department on Middle East and Central Asia Ratna Sahay, deputy of director Ninke Omec, and as well as economist Aiko Mineshima in March 01. During the meeting, state spending, transparency and accountability, and participation matters of parliament and public at the budget process.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu met with head of the delegation of SECO in Azerbaijan Naila Safarova, and deputy director of regional office on South Caucasus Philip Keller in March 8. The parties held discussions around the impact of global financial crisis on to Azerbaijan’s economy, business and households as well as elucidation of economic and political priorities after recession. Advisor of the Ministry of Economic Development, Benedikt Brauhman also took part at the meeting.
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The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu held meeting with Co-coordinator of Finland Permanent Delegation at OSCE Johanna Ketol in March 16. The parties exchanged views regarding challenges faced by National Budget Group members in granting accession to Azerbaijan’s budget information, as well as held discussions around the efficiency at state spending, and accountability issues.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu met with coordinator of Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FEF) on South Caucasus Matthias Jobelus, and head of the Delegation of FEF in Azerbaijan Rashad Huseynli in March 17. The members of the Management Board of ERC Rasim Huseynov and Fuad Rasulov also participated at the meeting. The cooperation directions between ERC and FEF discussed at the meeting.
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu met with professors of Duke University Roy Kelly and Deo Dhakai in March 18. During the meeting, the assessment of investment projects, welfare economy and monetary policy, including other related directions discussed at the meeting.
Economic Research Center is under the process of determining activity directions for a new stage
Economic Research Center ( ERC) has launched a series of deeds on defining action directions and improving strategic plan for next period. For this purpose, the chairman of ERC, G.Ibadoglu started meeting with foreign and international donor organizations and partners operating in Azerbaijan. The first series of meetings held with Shovkat Alizade, chief of representative Oxfam International agency in Azerbaijan, Mehriban Rahimli local representative of Marshal Fund, chief of representative Fridrix Ebert Fund Rashad Huseynli. The main topic of the discussion arranged priorities of donor organizations for next stage, collaboration facilities with ERC and perspectives.
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02-03/2010
The chairman of Economic Research Center Gubad Ibadoglu paid visit to Tbilisi upon invitation of Friedrich Ebert Foundation in February 26-27. During his visit, Mr. Ibadoglu participated at international conference and regional seminar. The so called “Farewell USSR” conference was organized jointly with Georgian New Economic School and Free Thought University in March 26. Following with prominent senior experts in the field of politics, and economy from Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Armenia famous persons such as Vladimir Bukovsi, Valeria Novodvorskaya, Konstantin Borovoy, and Andrey Illarianov representing USA, Russia and Great Britain also took part at the conference. At the conference, G.Ibadoglu delivered speech on the topic of “The last situation and reforms at Azerbaijan’s economy”. G.Ibadoglu participated at the so called “ The stance of property rights in South Caucuses” seminar organized by New Economic School in March 27.
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