Global Climate Change in Florida? Global Climate Change in Florida By Dr. James J. O’Brien

Global Climate Change in Florida?

Global Climate Change in Florida

• By

• Dr. James J. O’Brien

• Retired Emeritus

• Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor

• Meteorology and Oceanography

AASC 2007

• THE ORANGE STORY

• THE SEALEVEL STORY

• THE TEMPERATURES

• THE HURRICANES

THE FLORIDA ORANGE STORY

HISTORY OF ORANGE FREEZES

HISTORY OF ORANGE FREEZES

THE ORANGE STORY

THE ORANGE STORY

The Sea Level Story

Local sea level measurements

Historic sea level rise

What if sea level rose 6 meters?

Sea Level Rise

THE FLORIDA TEMPERATURE STORY

• MOST RURAL STATIONS ARE COOLING 2-4 F/CENTURY

A Closer Look – De Funiak Springs

• Town is located to the northeast of Eglin AFB, a large expanse of undeveloped forests.

• Surrounding countryside consists of pastures, farmland, and pine forests.

• Station located at Showel Farms, 3 miles to the east of the city.

• Walton County population is very low at around 40,000.

• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

A Closer Look – Arcadia

• Small Town surrounded by pastures, citrus groves, pine stands, and lowlands.

• Station located at the water treatment plant inside the city limits.

• Arcadia has grown very little in the last 40 years and only has a population of around 10,000.

• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

A Closer Look – Arcadia

A Closer Look – Fort Myers

• Station located at Page Field near downtown Fort Myers.

• The city of Fort Myers has experienced tremendous urban sprawl in the last 40 years.

• Lee county population has ballooned from 60,000 to over a half million in the last 40 years.

• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

A Closer Look – Fort Myers

A Closer Look – Belle Glade

• Small Farming community near the southern shore of Lake Okeechobee.

• Station located 2.5 miles south of town at the Agriculture Experiment Station.

• Relatively stable population.

• USHCN station (unadjusted data)

• Data record SHOULD be reflective of predominant climate trends.

Wrong!!! – Land Use Change

THE HURRICANE STORY

Probability of Hurricane Landfall: U.S. Coast

THE END

• QUESTIONS PLEASE