Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood environ international Corporation

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Use of Hybrid Plume/Grid Modeling and the St. Louis Super Site Data to Model PM2.5 Concentrations in the St. Louis Area

  • Ralph Morris, Bonyoung Koo, Jeremiah, Johnson and Greg Yarwood

  • ENVIRON International Corporation

  • Jay Turner and Jennifer Garlock

  • Washington University

St. Louis Regional PM2.5 Modeling

  • 36/12 km Modeling Grid

  • MM5 Meteorological Model

  • SMOKE Emissions Model

  • CMAQ & CAMx photochemical grid models

  • Model Performance Evaluation

    • Initially with Routine STN and FRM Networks
    • More Detailed with St. Louis Super Site
  • PM Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT)

  • 2009 PM2.5 Design Value Projections

Wind Analysis of Local vs. Regional PM2.5 Concentrations at Granite City Monitor (B) Identifies GCW Steel Mill & Coke Ovens as Local Contributor

St. Louis PM2.5: Regional and Local Problem

  • CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km Modeling Insufficient to Capture Local Contributions – Need Enhanced Approach:

      • Use hybrid Plume/Grid modeling approach with AERMOD/ISC Local and CMAQ/CAMx: Problems with mixing modeling results as CMAQ/CAMx designed to be accurate, AERMOD/ISC designed to be conservative.
      • Use Grid Model with Plume-in-Grid (PiG) for local-scale sources: 12 km grid still very course for sources not treated with PiG.
      • Use CMAQ/CAMx with finer grids: For example 36/12/4/1.33 km, however even 1.33 km may be insufficient to model local source impacts at Granite City
      • Use combined CMAQ/CAMx finer grids with PiG for local sources: Combines best features of (2) and (3) without problems of (1).
    •  Decision to proceed with high resolution grid with PiG model (Option 4).

St. Louis Hybrid Multi-Scale PM Modeling Approach

  • Global-Scale: GEOS-CHEM provided BCs to Inter RPO USA Domain

  • Continental-Scale: VISTAS 36 km CMAQ simulations

  • Regional-Scale: 36/12 km CMAQ/CAMx modeling of StL regional-scale domain

  • Urban-Scale: CAMx 12/4/1.33 km two-way nesting

  • Local-Scale: 1.33 km and finer? plus Plume-in-Grid with CAMx two-way 12/4/1.33/0.444 km grids

CAMx V4.5 Plume-in-Grid Module

  • Secondary Order Closure (SOC) horizontal and vertical diffusion*

  • Full ozone and PM chemistry using Incremental Chemistry approach*

  • Subgrid-scale sampling receptors

  • Releases to grid model when size permits

    • * Adapted from SCICHEM model

St. Louis PM2.5 SIP Modeling – Next Steps

  • Testing of Urban- and Local-Scale 12/4/1.33 km CAMx modeling

  • Updated 2002 and 2012 emissions and modeling for Regional-scale CMAQ/CAMx 36/12 km and Local-Scale 12/4/1 km CAMx modeling

  • Comprehensive model performance evaluation using St. Louis Super Site, STN and FRM data

  • 2012 PM2.5 Design Value projections

  • Control strategy development and modeling

  • Final documentation for PM2.5 SIP due April 2008

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