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on coﬀee and tobacco did not mean lower import levels, but rather a slow increase between 1830 and 1864. The impact of the sugar tariﬀ is a bit more diﬃcult to interpret, but it rather seems that lower tariﬀs meant higher revenue. Or simply that the import of sugar continued to increase regardless of the tariﬀ; it increased when it was stable, lowered, and increased. Hence, Swedish policymakers seem to have set tariﬀs that were fiscally eﬃcient during the 1840s, 1850s, and 1860s.17
16 H. HÄGGQVIST
relationship was also there when the three tariﬀs from Figure 8 was measured against customs rev-enue on those three goods, with a correlation coeﬃcient of 0.83(see Figure 11). The relationship is still positive when the tariﬀs are measured as ad valorem, but it is weaker at 0.41. Increases in nom-inal tariﬀs seem to have had a positive impact on real increases in customs revenue, both on total level and on the three most important commodities. This was less so when prices were taken into account, but there was still a positive relationship on sectoral level. There is some indication that the government was able to raise fiscal tariﬀs on good with lower elasticity of demand and increase revenue as a result.
This article has set out to answer what determined the growth of customs revenue in nine-teenth century Sweden. It has focused on tariﬀ setting and the structure of customs revenue in order to answer this question. Integral changes were made to Swedish trade policy during the period, and many were undertaken before 1860. This article has shown that these changes need to be taken into account to properly analyse the fiscal development in nineteenth century Sweden, something which has typically been lacking in earlier research such as Gårestad (1985) and Henrekson and Stenkula (2015). First, the general development of Swedish nineteenth cen-tury trade policy served fiscal needs and goals. The move away from taxing exports to taxing only imports, and mainly imports whose growth were not hurt by the existence of tariﬀs, was instrumental in securing a steady flow of customs revenue. Not only was this likely a move that promoted export growth, but imports would come to outgrow exports during the second half of the century, and some decades even outgrew GDP. Taxes on imports hence created room for revenue growth that taxes on all of foreign trade could not. The several consecutive decisions to remove import bans and replace them with (often rather high) tariﬀs served the same purpose. Second, the liberalisation of trade policy during the 1850s forced a slimmer tariﬀ structure that put fiscal burden on a smaller number of goods. These were particularly goods with low elas-ticity of demand, such as sugar, coﬀee, tobacco, and alcohol. This puts Sweden along the same lines of other European countries who also taxed these goods highly for revenue purposes. Cer-tain items which were important in the revenue baskets of other countries, such as petroleum and oils, were however only of minor or no importance in Sweden. Sweden instead stood out by drawing lots of revenue from textiles and clothing, and during 1890–1910 also from capital goods. Revenue from agricultural goods, mostly wheat, also became relevant again when these tariﬀs were reinstated during the 1880s. Third, the rates on these types of goods could be increased at times when that was deemed necessary without losing revenue. Rather, the analysis in section 5 showed that revenue increased when tariﬀ rates were heightened. The result that higher tariﬀs yielded higher revenues is interesting in relation to that issue as raised by Irwin (1998). This development took place during a critical time when customs revenue as share of total government revenue really took oﬀ and came to be the single most important tax receipt. Trade policy hence came to be a key driver of nineteenth century fiscal develop-ment in Sweden.
Revenue needs were a large driver of tariﬀ policy in nineteenth century Sweden. This contrasts with earlier Swedish research (Heckscher, 1954; Jonsson, 2005; Montgomery, 1921) but rhymes well with international research and experiences in other countries (see for example Williamson, 2006, and the cited work in Dormois et al., 2006). Tariﬀs could be set without discouraging imports and decreasing revenue, but as earlier research has pointed out, tariﬀs could have had other negative eﬀects not discussed here. This was probably most likely towards the end of the period here when more customs revenue came from seemingly protective duties (on agriculture and industrial imports) than before. The state benefited in terms of growing revenue, but industry and agriculture could have suﬀered under a higher tariﬀ burden. One can however wonder whether the actual eﬀects were leaned towards the fiscal or the protectionist. An import like wheat grew after agricultural tariﬀs
SCANDINAVIAN ECONOMIC HISTORY REVIEW 17
were re-introduced and arguably came to function like a commodity with low elasticity of demand. Is it possible that tariﬀs served both fiscal and protectionist needs at the same time or are these mutually exclusive? This possible trade policy clash warrants further studies.
An early version of the paper was presented at the 41st Annual Economic and Business History Society Conference, Montreal, Canada. The author wishes to thank the participants there for helpful comments. Thank you to Peter Hed-berg for reading the text and advising how to approve the approach and the analysis. I am very thankful for the con-structive comments and criticism from editor Jari Ojala and two anonymous referees. All remaining errors and misunderstandings are the sole responsibility of the author.
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
This work was supported by the Jan Wallanders och Tom Hedelius Stiftelse samt Tore Browaldhs Stiftelse [grant num-ber P2016-0135:1].
Henric Häggqvist http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1245-0511
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