Updated situation in the drc h. J. Boshoff

UPDATED SITUATION IN THE DRC

• H. J. BOSHOFF

• AND

• R. CORNWELL

SCOPE

• BACKGROUND

• AFTER SUN CITY

• PRETORIA DEAL

• CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION

• INCIDENTS

• MONUC PHASE 3 AND PRETORIA DEAL

• CONCLUSION

BACKGROUND

• 10 JULY 1999 SIX STATES SIGNED THE LUSAKA AGREEMENT

• THREE YEARS LATER AND THE PARTIAL FAILURE OF THE ICD(SUN CITY) DID NOT END THE FIGHTING IN THE KIVUS

• MONUC NOT ABLE TO IMPLEMENT DDRRR

• PRETORIA DEAL BRINGS NEW HOPE OF PEACE

AFTER SUN CITY

• AFTER SEVEN WEEKS OF NEGOTIATIONS AT SUN CITY A PARTIAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN KABILA AND BEMBA

• END OF THE ICD WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF LUSAKA AGREEMENT

• RCD-G AND RWANDA LEFT IN THE COLD

• THE ISSUE OF DISARMING OF RWANDAN LIBERATION ARMY(ALIR) IS CRUCIAL, NO NEGOTIATIONS ON POWER SHARING AND THE WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN FORCES WILL SUCCEED UNLESS THIS ISSUE IS RESOLVED

• THE PRETORIA DEAL IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE FOR THE FIRST TIME THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL WILL FROM RWANDA AND DRC GOVT TO RESOLVE THE ISSUE.

• THIS CAN LEAD TO FURTHER NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN ALL ROLE PLAYERS, POSSIBLY FACILITATED BY PRESIDENT MBEKI

PRETORIA DEAL

• THE PRETORIA DEAL ADDRESSES ONE OF THE KEY ASPECTS OF LUSAKA, THE DISARMING OF ALIR FORCES

• PRETORIA DEAL PROVIDED AN INDICATION OF THE POLITICAL WILL FOR DISARMAMENT FROM THE DRC AND RWANDA, MONITORED BY A THIRD PARTY(UN AND SOUTH AFRICA)

• IT IS FORESEEN THAT MONUC WILL IMPLEMENT THE DEAL AS PART OF PHASE 3, DDRRR

• THE KEY TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PROGRAMME INTER ALIA:

• FINALISATION OF MONUC PHASE 3 WITHIN 15 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
• ESTABLISHMENT AND OPERATIONALISATION OF ASSEMBLY POINTS WITHIN 25 DAYS OF SIGNATURE
• DDRRR OF ALIR TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN 90 DAYSOF SIGNATURE
• WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS WITHIN 90 DAYS OF SIGNATURE

PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

• ADMISSION BY DRC GOVT OF SUPPORT TO ALIR AND COMMITMENT TO COLLABORATE WITH MONUC TO DISARM THESE FORCES

• DRC TO RE-ESTABLISH CONTROL OVER TERRITORIES PRESENTLY OCCUPIED BY RPA AND RCD-G, RWANDA INTERPRETATION IS THAT MONUC WILL REPLACE AND MONITOR THIS AREA

• SECURITY CURTAIN

• ISSUE OF TRACKING DOWN AND DISARMING ARMED GROUPS EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC. IT IS BEYOND THE MANDATE OF MONUC.

• RESPONSIBILITY OF DRC GOV IN CO-OPERATION WITH MONUC AND JMC IN TERRITORY UNDER DRC CONTROL. MOST FORCES DEPLOYED IN AREAS OUTSIDE. RCD-G DENIED DRC GOVT IF NOT PART OF INTEGRATED DEFENCE FORCE.

• SOUTH AFRICA AS PART OF THIRD PARTY TO IMPLEMENT, MONITOR AND VERIFY THE DEAL

PRETORIA DEAL(CONTD)

• SECRETARIAT ALREADY IN KINSHASA

• ISSUE OF UN MANDATE, STILL UNCHANGED

• TIME SCALES ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE, RATHER A SEQUENTIAL PROCESS, EACH STEP WILL REQUIRE THE PRIOR COMPLETION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE

• DISARMING AND DISMANTLING OF INTERHAMWE AND EX-FAR ON D+10
• DEPLOYMENT OF ADDITIONAL FORCE LEVELS BY D+15
• WITHDRAWAL OF RWANDAN TROOPS, BEGINNING ON D+45

• THE CAPACITY OF MONUC, NEEDS 4 TASK FORCES TO EXECUTE PHASE 3

• PRESIDENT MBEKI PLANS TO GET THE POLITICAL PROCESS GOING IN THE DRC

CURRENT MILITARY SITUATION

MONUC DEPLOYMENT

REBEL DEPLOYMENT

REBEL GROUPS STRENGTH

• RCD-GOMA: 15 000

• MLC: 10 000

• RCD-K-ML: 2 000

• RCD - N: 3 000

FOREIGN FORCES DEPLOYMENT

MILITARY ACTIVITIES 17 TO 29 AUG 2002

• SECTOR 1

• MLC TROOPS MOVED FROM BASAKUSU TO ISIRO BY ANTONOV

• SECTOR 2

• LOW LEVEL AIRDROP OF AK 47 AND AMMO IN THE MANDRO AREA(15 KM EAST OF BUNIA) FROM BURUNDI
• 14 AUG 16 CIVILANS AND 6 SOLDIERS WERE KILLED AT BOGORO(25 KMS SW OF BUNIA
• UPC MILITIA CAPTURE A VILLAGE 60 KMS SW OF BUNIA

CONT

• SECTOR 3

• SHOOTING INCIDENTS IN BUKAVU, NORTH OF FIZI, PEPA AND PWETO
• LOW LEVEL MAI-MAI VIOLENCE NEAR KINDU, 13 MAI-MAI WERE KILLED IN CLASHES WITH RPA 40 KM FROM KINDU ON KALEMI ROAD
• 20 AUG SHOOTING CONTINUE ALL DAY LONG FROM THE OUTSKIRTS OF KINDU, RCD-G REINFORCED KINDU WITH 2 BATTALIONS, ONE FROM GOMA AND ONE COMPOSITE BATTALION
• RCD-N AND UPC(HEMA MILITIA) ALLIANCE COULD DESTABILISE THE EAST

CONT

• RCD – N VERSUS RCD – K/ML

• RCD – N REINFORCED HEAVILY BY MLC PUSHED INTO ORIENTALE PROVINCE.
• ON THE ISIRO MUNGBERE AXIS RCD – N RECAPTURED MUNGBERE WITH 1 X BN WITH THE INTENTION OF ADVANCING ON DURA
• ON THE ISIRO –DUNGU ROAD, RCD – N HAS RETAKEN GANGA AND INTENDED TO CONTINUE TO FARADJE AND THEN LINK UP WITH THE TROOPS ON THE MUNGBERE AXIS
• ON THE ISIRO – WAMBA AXIS RCD – N CONTROLLED WAMBA AND HAD ADVANCE TO BAYANGA IN THE DIRECTION OF NIA - NIA,

• ZDF WITHDRAWL

• 15 AUG, D COY 13 SADC BN WITHDREW FROMILEBO TO KANANGA AND WAS REPLACED BT FAC
• ON 19 AUG A COY FROM ILEBO JOINED THE KANANGA BN
• ON 22 AUG 1st MECH BN WITHDREW FROM ZEWE AIRPORT TO MBUJI MAYI

CONT

• UPDF WITHDRAWL

• UPDF WITHDREW FROM BENI, 1 X BN, GABOLITE, 1 X PL
• 1 X BN STILL IN BUNIA ON UN REQUEST

• RWANDAN MOVEMENT

• 10 000 TROOPS MOVET INTO ITURI PROVINCE
• 16 KM FROM LUBERO
• 1000 RPA TROOPS SEIZING KASUO, 30 KM FROM LUBERO

MONUC PHASE 3

GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF MONUC DDRRR PROGRAMME IN THE DRC

• VOLUNTARY DISARMAMENT

• LINKS WITH OTHER ASPECTS OF THE PEACE PROCESS

• DISENGAGEMENT OF FORCES
• WITHDRAWAL OF FOREIGN ARMIES
• INTER CONGOLESE DIALOGUE

• COOPERATION WITH OTHER AGENCIES

• COMMUNITY PROGRAMMES

• COOPERATION WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS

• TARGET AREA FOR DDRRR

• EX FAR
• INTERHAMWE
• ALIR 1
• ALIR 2

CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS

• STAGE 1: TRANSITIONAL OPERATIONS.

• DEPLOYMENT OF COMMAND AND CONTROL, LOGISTIC, ENGINEERING AND GUARD ASSETS TO KINDU
• THEREAFTER THE DEPLOYMENT OF ‘TASK FORCE I’ TO KINDU FOR DEPLOYMENT INTO STAGE 1 AREA OF OPERATIONS, FORWARD HQ IN KINDU
• FORCE NOT BIGGER THAN 2500

• STAGE 2: ASSISTANCE TO THE D3 PROGRAMME.

• DEPENDS ON THE SUCCESS OF THE INITIAL DEPLOYMENT IN CREATING CONDITIONS OF CONFIDENCE AND SECURITY TO EMBARKING ON MEANINGFUL D3 ACTIVITY
• SWIFT BUILD-UP OF TASK FORCES 2-4 IN STAGE 2 AREA OF OPERATIONS (NOT TO EXCEED 7000)

• STAGE 3: SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS.

• SITUATION NOT YET CLEAR ENOUGH TO PREDICT THE SCOPE AND SCALE OF SUBSEQUENT OPERATIONS BUT THESE WILL BE UNDERPINNED BY THE FOLLOWING KEY CONCEPTS
• EXTENT OF ANY MONUC RESPONSIBILITY FOR MONITORING BORDER SECURITY
• TO LINK KINDU WITH KISANGANI, LUMUBASI AND KALEMI

UPDATE ON PHASE 3

• KISANGANI OFFICE DEPLOYED AND FULLY OPERATIONAL

• DATABASE AND INITIAL PICTURE OF THE ARMED GROUP SETUP

• RECCE IN KISANGANI AND KINDU PERFORMED

• 1ST INFORMATION CAMPAIGN PREPARED AND LAUNCHED

• DDRRR DIVISION DEPLOYED

• KISANGANI GUARD UNIT DEPLOYED

• BROAD INFO CAMPAIGN STARTED

• KINDU UNIT DEPLOYED

• LOCATION OF DDRRR CAMPS IDENTIFIED

MONUC AND THE PRETORIA DEAL

• THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE MONUC STRUCTURE

• MONUC PHASE 3 WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ACTIVITY

• THE THIRD PARTY SECRETARIAT (SA AND UN) HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED IN KINSHASA

• THE SECRETARIAT COORDINATION MECHANISM WITH MONUC HAS NOT BEEN ESTABLISHED

• SOUTH AFRICA WILL POSSIBLY PROVIDE THE FIRST TASK FORCE

CONCLUSION

• INTERLOCKING PROCESSES TO SUCCEED:

• THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRETORIA DEAL
• THE EXECUTION OF MONUC PHASE 3
• THE COMPLETION OF THE POLITICAL SOLUTION IN THE DRC
• THE REGIONAL SUMMIT