Uzbekistan’s Transformation: Strategies and Perspectives


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2020RP12 Uzbekistan



SWP Research Paper 
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik 
German Institute for 
International and Security Affairs 
Andrea Schmitz 
Uzbekistan’s Transformation 
Strategies and Perspectives 
SWP Research Paper 12 
September 2020, Berlin 


Abstract 
∎ 
The presidential transition in Uzbekistan represents a novel development 
in the post-Soviet space. Regime insider Shavkat Mirziyoyev has succeeded 
in initiating change without provoking destabilisation. His reform pro-
gramme aims to liberalise the economy and society while leaving the politi-
cal system largely untouched. 
∎ 
Implementation is centrally controlled and managed, in line with the 
country’s long history of state planning. Uzbeks accept painful adjust-
ments in the expectation of a rising standard of living. And the economic 
reforms are rapidly creating incontrovertible facts on the ground. 
∎ 
Uzbekistan has also made significant moves towards political liberalisa-
tion, but remains an authoritarian state whose institutional framework 
and presidential system are not up for discussion. Rather than democrati-
sation, the outcome of the transformation is more likely to be “enlightened 
authoritarianism” backed by an alliance of old and new elites. 
∎ 
Nevertheless, there are good reasons for Germany and Europe to support 
the reforms. Priority should be placed on the areas most relevant for 
fostering an open society: promoting political competition, encouraging 
open debate, fostering independent public engagement and enabling 
genuine participation. 


SWP Research Paper 

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