A prep course for the month-long World Cup soccer tournament, a worldwide pheno

mate that has given priority to family caps seems to stem from a growing public 

alarm over the steady increase in the number of babies born out of wedlock : 1.2

 million babies in 1991 , the equivalent of 30 percent of all births . Among Afr

ican Americans , more than two-thirds of babies are born out of wedlock . While 

there is disagreement over whether there is a moral argument to be made against 

out-of-wedlock births and how to prevent them , there is widespread acknowledgme

nt that children born in such circumstances are more likely to be poor , have a 

harder time in school and face other obstacles . `` My proposition is that illeg

itimacy is the single most important social problem of our time more important t

han crime , drugs , poverty illiteracy , welfare or homelessness , because it dr

ives everything else , '' conservative scholar Charles Murray wrote in a Wall St

reet Journal editorial page article last year . Murray called for an end to Aid 

to Families with Dependent Children , the government 's largest welfare program 

, as a way of stemming the problem . Murray , a fellow at the American Enterpris

e Institute , has led the argument that welfare policy during the past 30 years 

has produced increased dependency and out-of-wedlock births . Advocates of this 

theory cite the growth in the nation 's welfare program and the coinciding rise 

in illegitimacy . Mark Robert Rank , author of the recent book , `` Living on th

e Edge : The Realities of Welfare in America , '' has countered Murray 's argume

nt . `` There 's virtually no research evidence which supports the idea that wom

en on welfare are somehow being encouraged to have more children in order to rec

eive more public assistance money , '' he said at a recent Capitol Hill forum . 

Rank , who teaches sociology at Washington University in St. Louis , said his st

udy of nearly 3,000 Wisconsin welfare recipients showed that women on welfare ha

d lower birth rates than women in the general population . And in his interviews

 with welfare recipients , Rank said , the mothers laughed at the notion that th

ey would have another baby for the extra benefits , which typically amount to $ 

57 to $ 64 a month . In New Jersey , one of handful of a states that has receive

d federal permission to adopt family caps , births to mothers on welfare have go

ne down . But according to the Center for Law and Social Policy in Washington , 

it is not clear to what extent the figures reflect underreporting of births or c

an be attributed to factors other than the new policy . William A . Galston , a 

domestic adviser to the president , cited economist Robert Moffitt 's review of 

the scientific literature . `` The scholarly consensus is that , at most , the w

elfare system might be responsible for 15 percent of the problem , '' Galston sa

id in an interview . Health and Human Services Assistant Secretary David T. Ellw

ood , writing in his 1988 book , `` Poor Support : Poverty in the American Famil

y , '' laid out several arguments disputing claims that welfare has caused chang

es in the family structure by giving benefits to single parents . `` ( N ) o hig

hly regarded study has indicated that welfare has played more than a minor role 

in the changing patterns of families overall , '' he wrote . He also pointed out

 that even as welfare benefits to individuals were cut in the 1970s , and the va

lue of benefits failed to keep pace with inflation , single-parent families cont

inued to increase . In addition , he said , the highest percentages of children 

in female-headed families lived in states with the lowest benefits . Both of the

se facts , he wrote , contradicted those who argue that welfare is the villain i

n rising single-parenthood . But late last week , after Clinton 's decision on f

amily caps became public , administration officials tried to put the best face o

n what would appear to be a contradiction of their previous research . Ellwood a

nd Mary Jo Bane , another assistant secretary at HHS who has also conducted exte

nsive research on welfare and poverty , `` are comfortable with the plan as writ

ten , '' said an agency official , pointing to the possibility that family caps 

may `` send a signal '' that births out of wedlock should be avoided . Even as t

he administration 's proposal was alienating dozens of civil rights and religiou

s organizations , it was falling far short of pleasing Republicans . Clinton 's 

`` incremental '' proposals are not `` ending welfare as we know it , '' as the 

president promised during the 1992 campaign , said Rep. James M . Talent , R-Mo.

 , sponsor of a bill that would deny benefits to unmarried mothers under age 21 

and give the savings to states for programs to care for the children , including

 group homes and orphanages . `` What the welfare system has said for 25 years i

s that you can form a household and we will offer you benefits from $ 8,000 to $

 15,000 a year if you have a child , don't marry and don't get a job , '' said T

alent . `` A lot of young people take that bait . ''

 PORT-AU-PRINCE , Haiti The Clinton administration is planning a total ban on ai

r traffic , including passenger service , between Haiti and the United States , 

as well as a cutoff of all financial transactions with the Caribbean nation , di

plomatic and Haitian officials say . The actions , described by a U.S. official 

`` as the next logical step , '' augment already stringent international economi

c and financial sanctions that have stopped all but commercial passenger air tra

ffic . President Clinton also reportedly has ordered other steps aimed at punish

ing civilian backers of Haiti 's military rulers . The order affecting air and f

inancial services will come this month , perhaps within two weeks , one U.S. off

icial said . He said several days ' notice will be given before the flight cutof

f to allow people especially Americans to leave or return to Haiti . Embassy sou

rces estimate there are 1,000 Americans in Haiti and 7,000 others holding U.S. p

assports . U.S. officials said the latest bans are aimed at the wealthy civilian

 supporters of Haiti 's military rulers , who took power in September 1991 , wit

h the violent overthrow of Jean-Bertrand Aristide , this nation 's first modern 

, democratically elected president . They said the cuts in air traffic and finan

cial transactions will be the last efforts by the White House to persuade the mi

litary to give up power or face American military intervention . `` If this does

n't show them that we are serious , then I guess only Marines at the airport wil

l do it , '' said an American source in a telephone interview from Washington . 

The tightening of the sanctions is part of an apparent three-step U.S. approach 

to reduce the privileges of the civilian elite ; squeeze the general population 

with the aim of causing serious public discontent ; and openly threaten military

 action . As a measure of the heightened tension here over the possibility of U.

S. military action , the United Nations and other international organizations la

ter this week are expected to order dependents of their officials and employees 

to leave Haiti as soon as possible . One U.N. . The French Embassy also is prepa

ring to send dependents out of the country and is closing its school early . U.S

. diplomats here said a similar American move `` is always under consideration .

 But not yet . There is nothing in the works . '' The American move to sever air

 and financial links will come in an executive order from Clinton . It will appl

y only to flights between the United States and Haiti . But it will effectively 

isolate this tiny nation , because almost all international service in and out o

f Haiti connects through the United States ; there are only infrequent flights t

hrough Panama , France and Canada . ( Optional add end ) The end of air service 

will be little more than an inconvenience , not a hardship , for most Haitians ,

 particularly the wealthy families who travel often for shopping , entertainment

 and business . But many of this nation 's elite take great pride in their acces

s to American culture and commerce and see their ability to fly on a moment 's n

otice to Miami as their escape route , if and when life in Haiti becomes unbeara

ble . `` You are going to see a scramble for the airport like you can't imagine 

, '' said a Haitian businessman . `` These people think they have a God-given ri

ght to go to Miami . Take that away from them and they 'll feel helpless . '' Wh

ile the air ban will put some strains on individuals and families , the major im

pact of the president 's decision will come from the cutoff of financial transac

tions . As with the general sanctions , the pain from Clinton 's newest decision

 will be felt most by the poor and the middle class . It is likely to do little 

more than inconvenience the military and its civilian supporters . In fact , man

y sources said , it will even enrich them . `` This will prevent Haitians in the

 United States from sending money to their families , '' said a Haitian business

man . These payments , or remittances , amount to tens of millions of dollars ye

arly and are the only source of money for many Haitians , including the poor . O

ne businessman observed of the transactions ban , `` It will cause a giant leap 

in the currency black market and make the gourde ( Haiti 's currency ) worthless

 . Anyone who has access to dollars will be rich . And who has the most access t

o dollars ? The military . They 'll continue to run the smuggling , drugs and al

l the other things . ''

 WASHINGTON The National Right to Life Committee and other anti-abortion groups 

Wednesday called for a boycott of products made by the company that developed RU

-486 , the so-called abortion pill that is about to be tested for possible U.S. 

manufacture . `` We have not made this decision lightly , but feel morally compe

lled to hold these companies accountable , '' Wanda Franz , president of the Nat

ional Right to Life Committee , said at a news conference . She said the coaliti

on of anti-abortion organizations , which also includes the Southern Baptist Con

vention , will take action against Hoechst AG , the parent German company ; Rous

ell Uclaf , the French manufacturer of RU-486 ; and two American subsidiaries , 

Hoechst Celanese , a chemical company , and Hoechst Roussel , which manufactures

 pharmaceuticals . The threat of such a boycott by anti-abortion groups was cons

idered responsible , in part , for Roussel Uclaf 's reluctance to bring the drug

 to the United States during the six years it has been available in France . The

 other major factor holding out the pill was opposition by the administration of

 former President Bush . The climate changed after the election of President Cli

nton , who regards himself as an abortion rights advocate . ( Begin optional tri

m ) Franz said her coalition considers the companies `` fully responsible , '' d

espite the French firm 's recent decision to give its U.S. patent rights for RU-

486 to the non-profit Population Council , a reproductive research group based i

n New York . The council expects to find a U.S. manufacturer for the pill , and 

plans to begin human studies this fall that are expected to last about six month

s . The U.S. . Food and Drug Administration has pledged to move as quickly as po

ssible to evaluate the research as soon as it is completed , and decide whether 

to license the drug . The pill removes the risk of surgery and could enable wome

n to have abortions without going to abortion clinics , which have been the targ

et of strong protests . Prescribed by doctors and taken in the first eight weeks

 of a pregnancy , the pill successfully induces abortions in 96 percent of the w

omen who take it . Franz did not name the specific products under boycott , but 

said such a list would be forthcoming within the next several weeks . ( End opti

onal trim ) Andrea Stine , a spokeswoman for Hoechst Celanese , called the boyco

tt decision `` misdirected . '' Hoechst Celanese `` was not involved in the nego

tiations to bring RU-486 into this country , nor were we involved in the researc

h , development or sales of the drug , '' she said . And Sandra Waldman , of the

 Population Council , said she doubted the boycott would have any impact on the 

process of getting RU-486 into the American marketplace . `` It 's not a new thr

eat , '' she said . `` There 's been no lack of companies and organizations inte

rested in this drug . In fact , dozens of companies have expressed interest in v

arious aspects marketing , distribution , manufacture since last year , '' when 

the council first became involved in negotiations to sponsor the drug in this co

untry . Franz also criticized Clinton , who has announced he intends to include 

abortion as a guaranteed medical benefit under his health reform proposals . She

 said that without the support of the Clinton administration , U.S. women would 

never have had access to the drug .

 UNITED NATIONS The United Nations ' main agency for economic development , desp

airing over the waste of almost a trillion dollars of peace dividend , set down 

sweeping proposals Wednesday including an international tax for expanding assist

ance to a third of the world in such `` abject poverty .. . that words simply fa

il to describe it . '' The proposals , to be taken up next year at the U.N. 's W

orld Social Summit conference in Copenhagen , form the centerpiece of the U.N. .

 Development Program 's annual report on worldwide human development . The repor

t , as always , includes the United Nations ' annual rankings of countries on a 

development index based on wealth , education and health . Canada , which had be

en second in the world last year , now ranks first , followed by Switzerland , J

apan ( last year 's leader ) , Sweden and Norway . The United States , sixth-ran

king last year , has fallen to eighth . The conference , a pet-project of Chilea

n President Patricio Alwyn that has won the endorsement of the United Nations , 

is expected to attract scores of heads of state and government , including Presi

dent Clinton . Alwyn insists the summit is needed because the post-Cold War worl

d while it has largely adopted democracy for its politics and the free-market fo

r its economics has failed , so far , to come up with a philosophy to deal with 

its social problems . `` There is one golden and , I fear , fleeting opportunity

 to bring the rich and the poor together , to make the compacts and to forge the

 partnerships that are needed to achieve sustainable human development in all co

untries , north and south , and that is the social summit , '' James Gustave Spe

th , administrator of the U.N. agency , told a news conference in Washington . I

n the report , largely written by Mahbub Haq , former Pakistani minister of fina

nce , the Development Program concludes that global military spending declined b

y $ 935 billion from 1987 until now . `` Unfortunately , '' the report says , ``

 this peace dividend has not been used to finance the world 's social agenda . '

' The agency , the United Nations ' main engine for Third World development , ac

knowledges there has been considerable improvement in world development in the l

ast years . `` While 70 percent of humanity survived in abysmal human conditions

 in 1960 .. . only 32 percent suffered such conditions in 1992 , '' it states . 

But the agency takes little solace in this . `` Despite all our technological br

eakthroughs , '' the report goes on , `` we still live in a world where a fifth 

of the developing world 's population goes hungry every night , a quarter lacks 

access to even a basic necessity like drinking water , and a third lives in a st

ate of abject poverty . '' To deal with these problems , the U.N. agency propose

s what it calls `` fundamental changes .. . in the present framework of developm

ent cooperation . '' Some of the most sweeping include : `` A serious search .. 

. for new sources of international funding that do not rely entirely on the fluc

tuating political will of the rich nations . '' The report notes some possibilit

ies such as a global tax on the use of gasoline and other non-renewable energy s

ources and a small tax on transactions of speculators dealing in foreign exchang

e . A tax of $ 1 on every barrel of oil ( or its equivalent in coal ) would brin

g in $ 66 billion a year . Compensation by rich countries to poor countries for 

services like pollution control that benefit mankind and for damages caused by m

arket barriers like restrictions on migration of labor . Allocation of 20 percen

t of the peace dividend in rich countries and 10 percent in poor countries to a 

new `` global human security fund '' that would pay for such projects as control

ling drug trafficking , international terrorism and nuclear proliferation . Crea

tion of an Economic Security Council to deal with issues like unemployment , pov

erty and food shortages in the same way the Security Council deals with threats 

to peace and security . ( Optional add end ) The U.N. . Development Program repo

rt stresses that wealth and human development do not always go hand in hand . Ec

uador and the Congo , for example , each have Gross National Products of a littl

e more than $ 1,000 a year . Yet because of its high life expectancy and literac

y and its low infant mortality , Ecuador ranks 74th in the worldwide human devel

opment index , while the Congo ranks 123rd . The U.N. . Development Program , me

asuring the health of nations , also discusses a concept it calls human security

 . Under this concept , countries are in crisis if they measure poorly on indica

tors of food supply , jobs , human rights , military spending , sharing of wealt

h and ethnic conflict . Using these , the report names eight countries in crisis

 : Afghanistan , Angola , Haiti , Iraq , Mozambique , Myanmar , Sudan and Zaire 

. The report expresses great disappointment with the continued spending for arms

 in the Third World , despite the end of the Cold War . Citing figures over a pe

riod from 1988 to 1992 , the agency says that the five largest exporters of arms

 to the Third World were the five permanent members of the Security Council : Ru

ssia , the United States , France , China and Britain . The five largest importe

rs of arms in the Third World during this period were : India , Saudi Arabia , A

fghanistan , Turkey and Iraq . Although much gloom edged the pages of the report

 , the U.N. agency had positive news , as well . A number of countries have mana

ged to increase their human development index markedly in the last three decades

 . The countries that increased their development the most were Malaysia , Botsw

ana , South Korea , Thailand , Syria , Turkey , China , Portugal and Iran .

 WASHINGTON A highly decorated Army nurse who was thrown out of the military aft

er declaring she was a lesbian was reinstated in the Washington State National G

uard Wednesday by a federal judge who said the prohibition on gay service member

s is `` grounded solely in prejudice . '' Col. Margarethe Cammermeyer , who earn

ed a Bronze Star in Vietnam , was discharged from military service in 1992 after

 26 years in uniform because she acknowledged her homosexuality in a security-cl

earance interview . Her celebrity grew later that year when President Clinton , 

then campaigning for election , saluted her in a televised town meeting and vowe

d he would end the ban against homosexuals in the military . U.S. . District Jud

ge Thomas Zilly 's summary judgment in favor of Cammermeyer was the latest in a 

succession of at least a half-dozen legal victories by gay service members over 

the past year . Zilly was ruling on the military 's old policy against homosexua

ls , not the `` don't ask , don't tell '' compromise that emerged after Clinton 

backed off his campaign pledge . But jubilant gay-rights advocates said the reas

oning and uncompromising language of Zilly 's ruling adds momentum to their argu

ment that the new policy also should be declared unconstitutional . `` The gover

nment has discriminated against Col. Cammermeyer solely on the basis of her stat

us as a homosexual and has failed to demonstrate a rational basis for doing so ,

 '' Zilly said , adding that , `` the rationales offered by the government to ju

stify its exclusion of homosexual service members are grounded solely in prejudi

ce . '' Cammermeyer , who was one of the highest-ranking officers ever to be thr

own out of the service for homosexuality , struck a triumphant tone . `` It 's s

o powerful and so vindicating , not just of my own struggle but thousands of oth

ers , '' she said in a telephone interview from Seattle . Cammermeyer said she w

as not by temperament a crusader , but was thrust into the role `` by accident .

 '' She said she remains a believer in the military life and has tried to change

 the minds of people who have told her they despise the military because of its 

homosexual policies . `` It 's not the military that 's wrong , but policies wit

hin the system , '' she said . `` It 's been a wonderful career , and I 'm looki

ng forward to finishing it . '' A spokesman for the Justice Department Wednesday

 declined to comment on Cammermeyer 's case . The government has appealed simila

r cases that it has lost at the District Court level and lawyers who have follow

ed the Cammermeyer case said it is likely they will do the same in this instance

 . All sides agree that the gays-in-the-military controversy willn't be resolved

 until the Supreme Court weighs in . At least two cases pending in appeals court

s are likely candidates to reach the high court . The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of 

Appeals in California is weighing the case of sailor Keith Meinhold , who won a 

lower-court ruling saying the military 's exclusion of homosexuals was unconstit

utional . The appeals court here , meanwhile , is reviewing the case of Joseph S