Degree of Master of

Main conclusions

Having examined modern methods as a tool for assisting different areas of environmental science we should conclude that all above mentioned methods, i.e. environmental modeling, scenario approach, use of GIS technologies, and particularly, remote sensing are advanced and powerful for scientific analysis. Furthermore, these methods are considered to be suitable and very practical for examination of water management systems. Application of the methods concerned⁷ would give deeper and meaningful understanding of the current state of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system.

⁷ Application of the methods concerned is described in details in third methodological chapter

3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The chapter provides the detailed description of the methods used for the data collection and analysis in the course of the research. The present thesis represents a combination of qualitative and quantitative study of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS). Various methods for data collection and analysis were applied in the research. For the purpose of better understanding of the methods used, let us primarily consider the research design and subsequently describe each method in details.

1. Research design

In order to achieve the main goal of the present course of the study, a complex of different research methods was applied to ensure that this study meets its objectives.
Analytical methods were used to review and analyze information about the research conducted of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system and worldwide practices of modern ICT use. Comparative methods were applied for investigations of the AALS past, i.e. the AALS water surface area and volume during 1969-2009 were calculated. These methods include comparison of the different land use datasets and comparison of the USSR military maps. Along with this, GIS methods for the calculation of the AALS area were used, namely, application of the Digital Elevation Maps (DEM) created in the Arcview program and Remote Sensing (RS) conducted by MultiSpec program.

CEU eTD Collection
The research trip to Moscow greatly assisted in provision of valuable information about the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system and expert opinions, especially about the situation concerning the cooperation between Central Asian republics. Furthermore, this trip provided high-quality datasets for conducting environmental modeling by the STELLA software.
Summing it all up, the general steps of the present research design are as follows:

• 
  Reviewing and analyzing the existing sources of literature relevant to the Aydar- Arnasay lakes system and use of modern ICT for scientific purposes;
  
• 
  Elaboration of the AALS water management scenarios and their visualization by the scenario conceptual graph;
  
• 
  Assess the elaborated AALS water management scenarios using the model in the STELLA software;
  
• 
  Interpretation of the results, i.e. analysis of the prime implications of each water management scenario and finding of the possible water management scenario indicating the AALS future development closer to reality.
  

2.