Degree of Master of

AYDAR-ARNASAY LAKES SYTEM FATE: POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS

The following chapter is concerned with the analysis of the possible future ways of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS) in order to achieve the main goal established in the thesis. For clarity, let us recall that the overarching goal of the present research is the identification of the most representative water management scenario in terms of the AALS future development which directly depends on environmental (change of the regional climate) and political (regional cooperation) factors. The main methods applied for the prediction of the AALS future trends in this chapter are the integration of the scenario approach and environmental modeling assisted by the STELLA software.
The present chapter has three main sections. The first is devoted to elaboration of the possible AALS water management scenarios. In order to devise the scenarios, the following steps are taken: development of the major scenario criteria, demonstration of the conceptual scheme of the elaborated AALS water management scenarios, and detailed description of each scenario.
The second section is concentrated on the development of the AALS model assisted by the STELLA software. The development includes assigning the model objective and description of the model structure, i.e. geographic and temporal scale, basic assumptions, and input and output parameters and main blocks of the model.

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The third section attempts to carry out modeling of the elaborated water management scenarios and explicate the results obtained.

1. Possible water management scenarios of the AALS future

development

1. Background

As indicated in the literature review, the scenario approach is acknowledged as a powerful strategic management tool for the decision making process in environmental science¹⁷. The majority of contemporary environmental research is based on the application of

¹⁷ See section 2.3.3

the scenario approach. In practice, the scenario approach is a set of various stories built around “carefully constructed plots” (Mietzner and Reger 2005).

Before going further we deem it important to explain the main concept and characteristics of the scenario. In general, the concept of the scenario approach can be shown by a simple conceptual image presented in Figure 20.

Figure 20. Scenario dynamics (Mietzner and Reger 2005)

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From the picture it can be observed that the current state is a result of historical processes. This state could change due to driving forces which condition the future development. This approach depicts alternative ways of future development. Positive images might include their consistence with sustainable development. Negative images, in turn, play a significant role because they can raise awareness and provide some effective alternative to eradicate some present perilous conditions. Additionally, we should note sideswipes which can be explained as surprising and extreme occurrences (natural disasters, wars, global epidemic and others) that can influence future development (Mietzner and Reger 2005).
Among the most distinct characteristics of the scenario approach the following should be listed:

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  It depicts alternative ways instead of extrapolating trends from the present;
  
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  It anticipates future trends and opportunities (Ratcliffe 2002);
  
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  It creates holistic images of how future could develop;
  
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  It reframes existing decisions by providing a new context of decisions;
  
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  It embraces both qualitative and quantitative information;
  
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  It requires decision makers and other stakeholders to question their basic assumptions (Neilson and Wagner 2000).
  

There are different types of scenarios and ways of classifying them (Martelli 2000). For example, scenarios can be classified in relation to distinct aspects, i.e. aspects of representation (complete formulated or sketchy), topic (global or specific), time (short, mid or long-term and others. Depending on the action aspects, scenarios could be forward or backward scenarios. Also they can be mission scenarios, action scenario or issues scenarios (Maleska 1995). Besides, scenarios can demonstrate results of the forecasts in a consistent or compelling way. Thus, they might be exploratory or normative. Explorative scenarios are scenarios based on the demonstration of future starting from analyzing past and present trends and leading to decent future. Conversely, normative scenarios suggest various visions of the future, i.e. from desired to dramatic (Faley and Randell 1998). Summarizing, such variety of scenario classifications underline that this approach is actively developed today and used in different domains.

2.