Degree of Master of

RIVERTWIN project

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The last example of successful application of integrated environmental modeling described in the present work is the ongoing RIVERTWIN project focused on testing and implementing the integrated regional model MOSDEW for the strategic planning of water resources management in three river basins in Europe, Central Asia, and West Africa. Gaiser and Printz in their article devoted to the RIVERTWIN project outlines that modeling in the addressed project is based on integration of ecological, i.e. water availability and quality) and economic aspects (water use and water demand) of water management (Gaiser and Printz 2003). Simultaneously, integrated alternative water basin scenarios were created for each respective region.
The main application of these models is to promote sustainable, integrated water management, balancing economic constraints and ecological requirements, through several outcomes, for instance, developing integrated scenarios of economic growth, land use and climate change in cooperation with stakeholders and potential users in order to assess the implications for water management, or enhancing the mutual transfer of know-how and technology between European and Third World countries by the twinning of river basins (Gaiser and Printz 2003).
Drawing the conclusion, we should highlight that application of environmental modeling has become an essential tool of analysis in environmental projects. All examples provided above show a successful application of modeling in environmental science and other relevant spheres. For this reason, in the current research it has been decided to implement environmental modeling as a tool for analysis of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system future development.

3. New way of thinking: scenario approach in environmental science

The scenario approach has become a widely used method of research in various fields such as the business sector, management, environmental science, economics and others. According to the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) definition⁶, the scenario approach represents “descriptions of journeys to possible futures”. This approach reflects various assumptions about how “current trends will evolve, how critical uncertainties will play out and what new factors will come into play” (IISD 2008).

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For clarity, it is generally accepted that scenarios do not predict. Rather, they paint pictures of possible futures and explore the distinct outcomes that could result if basic assumptions are changed (UNEP/RIVM 2004). The main idea of the scenario approach or scenario thinking/planning is to incorporate known facts about the future, such as demographics, geography, military, political, industrial information, and mineral reserves, “with plausible alternative social, technical, economic, environmental, educational, political and aesthetic (STEEEPA) trends which are key driving forces” (Ringland 1998). It should be pointed out that this scenario approach is focused on creation and evaluation of alternative strategies or solutions that may be successful in an unknown future (Raskin, Banuri et al. 2002).

⁶ More detailed description of the scenario approach is provided in sections 3.3.1 and 6.1.1

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