No portion of the work referred to in this thesis has been submitted in support of an application for another degree or qualification of this or any other university or other institute of learning.
Kristina RODINA
CENTRAL EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY
ABSTRACT OF THESIS submitted by:
Kristina RODINA
for the degree of Master of Science and entitled: The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system: formation, functions and future water management scenarios.
Month and Year of submission: July, 2010.
The current development of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (AALS), which is one of the remarkable examples of the human-induced ecosystems, depends on numerous political and environmental factors. On the one hand, the political tensions and disagreements between Central Asian republics alter the implementation of the coordinated water policy in terms of agreed water discharges to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes. On the other hand, forecasting change of the regional climate has an uncertain influence on these lakes.
The main scientific methods applied in the present research are scenario approach, fostering the finding of alternative ways of the AALS future development; application of GIS technologies, contributing to the analysis of the AALS change dynamics in past; and environmental modeling assisting for simulation of the various development ways of the AALS future.
In order to achieve the main goal of the study which is identification of the most probable scenario of the AALS future development, a set of various water management scenarios has been elaborated in accordance with a level of regional cooperation between republics and significance of climate change. They are “Ready for Challenge”, “Fall Behind”, “Promising Future”, and “Business as Usual”.
Then, the AALS model aimed to test these scenarios has been created using STELLA software. Finally, the model created has been simulated for each water management scenario and results illustrating the change of the AALS volume in 2010-2040 have been obtained.
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It was found that two of the elaborated scenarios, i.e. “Ready for Challenge” and “Promising Future” are unrealistic for the AALS development whereas another two, i.e. “Fall Behind” and “Business as Usual” stand big chances of being illustrative and plausible for the lakes’ future.
Keywords: Aydar-Arnasay lakes system, Uzbekistan, water discharges, Chardara reservoir, water management scenario, environmental modeling, Toktogul Reservoir, regional cooperation, climate change,
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