Degree of Master of

AYDAR-ARNASAY LAKES: ANALYSIS OF THE PRESENT DEVEPOMENT ASPECTS 61

1. 
   The AALS current ecological situation 62
   
2. 
   Socio-economic development: consideration of the main aspects 63
   
   1. 
      Fisheries: assessment of the AALS current trends 63
      
      1. 
         Impact of the USSR disintegration on fisheries 63
         
      2. 
         Assessment of the AALS current fisheries trends: 2000-2009 65
         
      3. 
         Analysis of fisheries legal framework 68
         
      4. 
         Concealment of fish production 70
         
      5. 
         Farmers’ problems 71
         
      6. 
         Fate of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes 73
         
   2. 
      Recreation 74
      
3. 
   Environmental development: biodiversity conservation as the top priority for the AALS 76
   
   1. 
      Nuratau-Kyzylkum Biosphere Reserve as a model for biodiversity conservation 77
      
      1. 
         Background 77
         
      2. 
         Strategy 77
         
      3. 
         Description 77
         
      4. 
         Success 79
         
   2. 
      Ramsar Convention 79
      
      1. 
         Criteria for Identifying Wetlands of International Importance 80
         
      2. 
         Justification for the application of Criteria for Identifying the AALS as Wetlands of International Importance 82
         
      3. 
         Wetlands types 85
         

AYDAR-ARNASAY LAKES SYTEM FATE: POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TRENDS 87

1. 
   Possible water management scenarios of the AALS future development 87
   
   1. 
      Background 87
      
   2. 
      GEO-3 scenarios as an example of successful scenario building 89
      
   3. 
      Elaboration of the water management scenarios 91
      
      1. 
         Development of the criteria for the water management scenarios 92
         

Change of the regional climate 94

2. 
   
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   Development of the scenario conceptual scheme based on elaborated criteria 94
   
1. 
   The water management scenarios: description 96
   
1. 
   The Aydar-Arnasay lakes model development 98
   
   1. 
      Model structure and basics 98
      
      1. 
         Geographic and temporal scale 100
         
      2. 
         Basic assumptions 101
         
      3. 
         Input parameters 101
         
      4. 
         Main blocks 101
         
      5. 
         Chardara - AALS model interface 105
         
2. 
   Chardara – AALS model simulation: experiments and results interpretation 107
   
   1. 
      Model simulation: Mode I “Model optimization” 107
      
   2. 
      
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      Quantitative assumptions 110
      
   3. 
      Model simulation: Mode II “Scenario analysis” 111
      
      1. 
         Scenario I “Ready for challenge” 111
         
      2. 
         Scenario II “Fall Behind” 114
         
      3. 
         Scenario III “Promising Future” 114
         
      4. 
         Scenario IV “Business as Usual” 115
         

1. DISCUSSION 117

2. CONCLUSION 125

3. REFERENCES 127

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List of Tables
Table 1. Basic indicators of water and land use in the Aral Sea Basin during 1960-2000 6
Table 2. Change dynamics of the AALS water-surface area and volume during 1969-2009 59
Table 3. The threatened list of bird species in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes 82
Table 4. Description of the water management scenarios 96

List of Figures

Figure 1. Location of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system 1
Figure 2. The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system in 1954 (The Uzbek Soviet Encyclopedia, volume 14, 1971-1980) 45
Figure 3. The Chardara reservoir (adopted from Google Earth and modified by the author) . 47
Figure 4. The Aydar-Arnasay lakes system in 1993 (adopted from Google Earth and modified by the author) 49
Figure 5. The Toktogul Reservoir 50
Figure 6. Water discharges from the Chardara reservoir to the AALS in the period of 1993- 2005 (Mamatov and Kurnanbaev 2006) 52
Figure 7. Initial steps taken for the AALS calculation (screenshot from Google Earth) 55
Figure 8. Integration of six SRTM images in the Arcview Program 56
Figure 9. Digital Elevation Map (DEM) created by Arcview Program 56
Figure 10. Preparation stage: integration of the satellite images 58
Figure 11. Working with the AALS processed image in the Arcview Program 58
Figure 12. Change dynamics of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system during 1969-2009 59
Figure 13. Time changes of amount of fish captured in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and Uzbekistan in 1987-2005 64
Figure 14. Time changes of carp catch in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and Uzbekistan 65
Figure 15. Recreational activity in the Aydar-Arnasay lakes system (adopted from World database on protected Areas and modified by the author) 75

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Figure 16. Geographical location of the Nuratay-Kyzylkum Biosphere Reserve (UNEP 2007)
.................................................................................................................................................. 78
Figure 17. Ramsar boundaries of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes site (http://ramsar.wetlands.org/Database/Searchforsites) 80
Figure 18. Asian Migratory Bird Flyways (Source: U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) 84
Figure 19. Indicative map of the Central-Asian Indian Flyway region (Source: UNEP 2005)84 Figure 20. Scenario dynamics (Mietzner and Reger 2005) 88
Figure 21. Conceptual scheme of GEO-scenarios 90
Figure 22. Backbone of the water management scenarios conceptual scheme 95
Figure 23. Conceptual scheme of the elaborated water management scenarios 96
Figure 24. The model screenshot demonstrating the basic block of the model 99
Figure 25. Geographical location of the simulated area 100
Figure 26. The model block “Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay lakes system” 103
Figure 27. The model block “Environmental factors” 104
Figure 28. The model block “Scenario analysis” 105
Figure 29. Fragment of the model interface presenting main menu 106
Figure 30. Fragment of the model interface presenting model modes including control parameters with management options 106
Figure 31. a) Amount of water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining at the temperature of 14,8ºC 108
Figure 32. b) Amount of water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining at the temperature of 15,8ºC 108
Figure 33. c) Amount of water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining at the temperature of 16,8ºC 109
Figure 34. Quantitative description of the water management scenarios 111
Figure 35. The AALS volume change in sub-scenario Ia (Scenario I “Ready for Challenge”)
................................................................................................................................................ 112
Figure 36. The AALS volume change in sub-scenario Ib (Scenario I “Ready for Challenge”)
................................................................................................................................................ 113
Figure 37. The AALS volume change in Scenario II “Fall Behind” 114
Figure 38. The AALS volume change in Scenario III “Promising Future” 115

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Figure 39. The AALS volume change in Scenario IV “Business as Usual” 116

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