Degree of Master of

CEU eTD Collection
Acknowledgements

First of all, I would like to thank you my dearest family for supporting and believing in me during my studies in the Central European University. Then I would like to express my gratitude to my boyfriend for his incredible patience and long distance love.
Also, I would like to thank you to my supervisor Professor Ruben Mnatsakanian for his proposal of interesting and challenging research topic and guidance during the research. I am also especially grateful to Victor Lagutov for his close cooperation and priceless advices during the thesis writing, invaluable support and inspiration.
Special thanks to my best CEU friends, Monika and Sultan, dorm neighbors and basketball and running partners who supported me all the time and made this year one of the best in my life. Finally, I want to thank Eszter Timar for her kind assistance in improving the academic quality of the thesis and constant collaboration during this year.

Table of Contents

1. INTRODUCTION 1

   1. 
      Background 1
      
   2. 
      Research 2
      
      1. 
         Problem statement 2
         
      2. 
         Research aim 2
         
      3. 
         Research objectives 3
         
   3. 
      Thesis structure 3
      

2. LITERATURE REVIEW 5

   1. 
      Preconditions of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes formation 6
      
      1. 
         The Aral Sea desiccation 6
         
      2. 
         Dissolution of the USSR 8
         
   2. 
      Aydar-Arnasay lakes as a new subject of scientific inquiry 9
      
      1. 
         Overview of the AALS hydrological research conducted 10
         
         1. 
            Examination of the AALS thermal regime 10
            
         2. 
            Seasonal fluctuation of water temperature 11
            
         3. 
            Diurnal temperature fluctuations 11
            
      2. 
         Mineralization as the one of the major research issue 12
         
         1. 
            The main components of the AALS salt balance 12
            
         2. 
            Hydrochemical regime of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes 13
            
      3. 
         Overview of the AALS current ecological conditions 14
         
         1. 
            The AALS water quality: experts’ conclusions 15
            
      4. 
         Evolution of the fish farming 16
         
         1. 
            Fisheries development in the period of 1960-1990 16
            
         2. 
            The collapse of the USSR: the AALS fisheries fate 18
            
      5. 
         Main conclusions 19
         
   3. 
      ICT as a tool for assisting environmental science 20
      
      1. 
         Use of modeling 20
         
      2. 
         Successful worldwide projects assisted by environmental modeling 21
         
         1. 
            
            CEU eTD Collection
            Dynamic ecological-economic modeling for regional planning in the Brussels-Capital region 22
            
         2. 
            Mediterranean example: MODULUS project 23
            
         3. 
            The integration of ecological and economic modeling to manage water quality problems in Australia 23
            
         4. 
            STREAM instrument: use of a spatial distributed water balance model 23
            
         5. 
            MULINO-DSS project: sustainable use of water resources 24
            
         6. 
            FLUMAGIS project on water management in Germany 25
            
         7. 
            RIVERTWIN project 25
            
      3. 
         New way of thinking: scenario approach in environmental science 26
         
         1. 
            Scenario approach in scientific publications 27
            
      4. 
         GIS technologies 28
         
         1. 
            Definition 28
            
         2. 
            GIS functionality 29
            
         3. 
            GIS technologies as a tool for environmental research: examples 30
            
         4. 
            Remote sensing 32
            
      5. 
         Main conclusions 34
         
3. 
   RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 35
   
   1. 
      Research design 35
      
   2. 
      Methods of data collection 36
      
      1. 
         Literature review 36
         
      2. 
         Unstructured Interviews 37
         
      3. 
         GIS data mining 38
         
   3. 
      Methods of data analysis 39
      
      1. 
         Scenario approach as an analytical method for predicting 39
         
      2. 
         Environmental modeling 40
         
         1. 
            Stella Software 40
            
      3. 
         GIS methods 41
         
         1. 
            Arcview program 41
            
      4. 
         Remote sensing 42
         
         1. 
            MultiSpec program 42
            
   4. 
      Limitations of the Research 42
      
4. 
   AYDAR-ARNASAY LAKES SYSTEM: LOOKING INTO THE PAST 44
   
   1. 
      Historical stages of the AALS formation 44
      
      1. 
         Aydar-Arnasay solonchak (the 1920s – 1960(1963)) 45
         
      2. 
         Chardara reservoir construction (1960(1963)-1969) 46
         
      3. 
         Inundation of the Aydar-Arnasay depression (1969-1970) 48
         
      4. 
         Lakes for residual water (1970-1993) 48
         

4.1.5 1993- present 50

CEU eTD Collection
4.1.5.1 Water discharges as the main indicator of the AALS volume increase in 1993-2009 51

2. 
   Practical exercise: Change dynamics of the AALS water-surface area in 1969- 2009 53
   
   1. 
      The main idea of the practical exercise 53
      
   2. 
      Analysis of the main methods applied 54
      
      1. 
         Comparative method: land use datasets 54
         
      2. 
         Comparative method: USSR military maps 54
         
      3. 
         Use of Digital Elevation Map (DEM) 55
         
      4. 
         Remote sensing 57
         
   3. 
      Results obtained 58
      
1.