Degree of Master of

Water discharges as the main indicator of the AALS volume increase

in 1993-2009
As it was analyzed above, starting from 1993 water discharges from the Chardara reservoir played a significant role in the AALS development. In our analysis we deem it necessary to consider how much water was discharged to the AALS during 1993-2009, including mean amount of water releases as well as releases during dry and wet years. Thus,
we will examine Figure 6 which demonstrates the dynamics of the annual water discharges from the Chardara reservoir to the AALS during 1993-2005.

Figure 6. Water discharges from the Chardara reservoir to the AALS in the period of 1993- 2005 (Mamatov and Kurnanbaev 2006)

CEU eTD Collection
From Figure 6 it can be seen that the water discharges coming from the Chardara reservoir to the AALS varied greatly during 1993-2005. Such huge variations can be explained by the different amount of the precipitation which depends on either wet or dry year. As can be observed from the figure, 1994 was an extremely wet year, and the water releases were extremely high, whereas 1996 and 2001 were dry years and water releases in these years were minor consequently. In total, water releases ranged from 0,35 km³ (2001) to 9,1 km³ (1996).
According to the experts’ estimations, starting from 2005 and to present days, water discharges from the Chardara to the AALS make up 2-2,5 km³ on average. Actually, this amount of the releases basically considers as an essential for the stable condition of the AALS regarding volume and water level of these lakes (Mamatov and Kurnanbaev 2006). Later we

will simulate the model⁹
in order to find out how much water is needed for the AALS

maintaining taking into account various temperature conditions.
Having analyzed the water releases from the Chardara, for the present research it is also important to examine how the AALS water-surface area and volume have been changing

⁹ Model simulation can be found in the section 6.3.1

during these years. In order to analyze this, it was decided to accomplish a practical exercise by using GIS technologies in order to calculate the following parameters of the AALS:

1. 
   Water-surface area during 1969-2009;
   
2. 
   Volume during 1969-2009.
   

The full description of this practical exercise and methods used is presented in the next section.

2.