Degree of Master of

Scenario IV “Business as Usual”

Figure 39 illustrates the results obtained form the model simulation for Scenario IV “Business as Usual”.

Figure 39. The AALS volume change in Scenario IV “Business as Usual”

Analyzing the graph, it can be clearly observed that two stages of the AALS future development in the context of volume are possible in future.

The first stage implies that the AALS volume will remain at the same level during 2010-2015. According to the results achieved the volume will range from 43,3 to 44,7 km³ in 2010-2015 and the system will be characterized by abalanced development.
According to the second stage, starting from 2015, the AALS volume will start to decrease gradually. The results obtained from the model simulation show that the volume will vary considerably ranging from 33,2 to 35,4 km³ in 2020, from 15,9 to 19,5 km³ in 2030. By 2039-2040, the volume will be about 1,3-3,4 km³. After 2040 the Aydar-Arnasay lakes will ultimately dry out.

CEU eTD Collection
The main reasons of these trends in Scenario IV “Business as Usual” will be explained in the discussion chapter presented below.

7. DISCUSSION

In order to achieve the established goal of the present thesis the following steps have been undertaken:

• 
  The water management scenarios demonstrating the alternative of the Aydar-Arnasay lakes future development have been elaborated;
  
• 
  The Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay model using STELLA software has been created;
  
• 
  The Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay model has been simulated for the respective scenarios;
  
• 
  The results obtained from the model simulation have been obtained.
  

The following chapter is aimed to analyze the results and discuss the main implications from the model simulation for each water management scenario. The discussion will be based on the analysis of the various aspects of the AALS future development. Discussion is built on the vision and reality of each water management scenario.