Environmental Management: Principles and practice

Environmental modelling, futures modelling and futures research
Models are used to understand complex situations, predict future scenarios, and
assess the impacts of a wide range of developments such as: altered land use,
effluent discharges, global climatic change, modification of river channels,
estuarine conditions, coastal erosion, agricultural chemicals impacts, acid
deposition, etc. Models include physical models (e.g. laboratory tests, scale
models of estuaries or catchments), statistical models (e.g. principal components
analysis), computer models, systems models (for a review of ecosystem models
used for environmental management see Jorgensen and Goda, 1986; for a
handbook see Jorgensen et al., 1996).
Futures research makes use of modelling, e.g. for trend extrapolation and
informed speculation. Futures modelling, futures research and ‘futurology’ attracted
attention in the early 1970s following the publication of The Limits to Growth
(Meadows et al., 1972). A sequel reviewing how accurate the warnings had been
appeared at the time of the 1992 Earth Summit (Meadows et al., 1992).
Futures research is difficult and imprecise. It has to allow for both gradual and
sudden changes that are due to new inventions, attitude changes, environmental
alterations, and so on (Westman, 1985:3). The further ahead one attempts to make
predictions, the less accurate they are likely to be. The results of futures research are
useful, but must be treated with caution.

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ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, HAZARD AND RISK MANAGEMENT
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Delphi technique
The Delphi technique was developed by the RAND Corporation in the late 1940s to
try to obtain a reliable consensus of opinion about future developments from
multidisciplinary panels of experts (Stouth et al., 1993). These panel evaluations
were used for Cold War purposes, and little was published for a decade until a report
by Gordon and Helmer (1964). The approach is for expert assessors to be asked their
views without communicating with each other. These are pooled, evaluated, and the
assessors are allowed to see the result as a controlled feedback, and are given the
chance to modify their opinions which are again fed back (a Gestalt approach); the
feedback-pooled response process may be repeated three or more times to produce
the final conclusions. The approach ensures anonymity for the assessors to prevent
peer pressure or intimidation influencing results; and the controlled feedback helps
to achieve a group viewpoint and an aggregate judgement.
The Delphi technique has been used in futures research on healthcare policy
and innovations, gambling, tourism, marketing, management studies, resources
allocation, technology innovation studies and war-games. The Environmental
Evaluation Systems approach to EIA uses the Delphi technique; and the cross-impact
matrix EIA approach has also been developed from it (Soderstrom, 1981:20).
It is useful for short-range and for longer-range (over 15 years into the future)
forecasting, especially if high degrees of uncertainty are involved and where there
is a need to predict impacts on culture. The results are, of course, subjective and
qualitative. Impact assessment asks what impacts may occur; the Delphi technique
asks about the likelihood and date some impact will happen—it can thus
complement impact assessment. It has become much easier to run with modern
computers and may be done through a communications network such as the Internet,
or even by mail without the need to gather expert assessors in one place. However,
it can be slow.
Assessments of the technique suggest it is a valuable approach but one that has
often been poorly applied. Careful selection of the experts is crucial to avoid gaps or
bias, and it is also important to ensure that the questions they are asked are not too
limited or their expertise could be constrained and lost. Bias can be introduced if
assessors are allowed to suggest other assessors.