Exposure to Structural Transition in an Economic-Ecological Model (esteem) Uzbekistan

Exposure to Structural Transition in an Economic-Ecological Model (ESTEEM) - Uzbekistan

Guilherme R. Magacho

October, 2022

Conceptual framework

Structural change and transition risks

1.1

Scenario: CO2e intensity defines the sunset industries

• Green transition: a rapid structural change, where low-emitting industries rise, and high-emitting (sunset) decline
• A process is led by deliberate policies, changes in preferences and technological changes
• Countries are impacted differently according to their structure of production, trade and finance

• Transition risks for developing countries
• Raising foreign currency to avoid BoP constraints: transition will demand imported inputs and machineries
• Raising fiscal revenues to avoid fiscal imbalances: it will also demand relevant public investments and social expenses
• Guaranteeing employment and wages: the global net impact may be positive, but it is heterogenous in the country-level

Conceptual framework

More granulated data (other database: EXIO+EORA-26)

1.2

Low
Medium
High
Pre-defined sunset industries:
Fossil fuels (petroleum, gas, coal,…)
Cement, lime and plaster
Inorganic fertilizers (N-)
Iron, steel and aluminium

Importance of sunset industries for the country

Socio-economic vulnerability

2.1

Country analysis

External exposure: export basket (% of exports)

2.2

Source: Atlas of Complexity

Comparative analysis

Clustering countries

2.3

UZB

Emissions by sector

Emission-intensity comparison, kg of CO2 per USD

3.1

Emissions by sector

Total emissions by sector and scope

3.2

Efficiency vs growth

SDA of total emissions: 2010-2015

4.1

	Emission intensity	Inputs	Final demand	TOTAL
Domestic Final Demand, p.p.	-21,63	-9,74	+25,45	-5,91
Exports, p.p.	-3,25	-1.30	+2,97	-1,58
Total, p.p.	-24,88	-11,04	+28,42	-7,49

Efficiency has compensated
for the increase in final demand

Extensions

SDA of emissions embodied in exports: 2010-2015

4.2

	Emission intensity	Inputs	Exports	TOTAL
Gas...Gas.Products	-2,58	-0,26	+3,96	+1,12
Refineries	-0,64	-0,09	+1,28	+0,55
Oil.Products	-0,51	-0,03	+0,90	+0,35
Transportation.1	-0,28	-0,43	+0,35	-0,36
Basic.Chemicals	-0,83	-0,56	+1,02	-0,37
Other.Productive.Sectors	-0,32	-0,41	+0,23	-0,49
Construction	-0,83	-0,32	+0,48	-0,67
Trade	-0,64	-0,60	+0,48	-0,76
N.Prod..Transport	-0,71	-0,95	+0,83	-0,82
Non.Ferrous.Metals	-1,99	-0,83	+1,82	-1,00
Crops	-1,49	-1,15	+1,08	-1,55

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