Degree of Master of

Chardara – AALS model simulation: experiments and results

interpretation
The present section consists of three main parts:

• 
  Model simulation: Mode I “Model optimization”;
  
• 
  Description of the quantitative assumptions needed for the development of the water management scenarios; elaboration of the quantitative characteristics of the water management scenarios based on the model simulation in the Mode I;
  
• 
  Model simulation: Mode II “Scenario analysis”.
  

1. Model simulation: Mode I “Model optimization”

As discussed above²², the main purpose of Mode I “Model optimization” is to examine how much water discharges will be needed for maintaining the AALS volume taking into account climate change in future. For this purpose, a set of experiments was developed and carried out.
According to IPCC estimates (IPCC 2001), annual average temperature will make up around 16,8 ºC during 2010-2040. The model interface with control parameter, called Mode 2-temperature, provides an opportunity to test our task taking into account different values of annual average temperature in future.
For the present experiment, it has been decided to use the following temperature values:

1. 
   
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   14,8ºC, b) 15,8ºC, and c) 16,8ºC. In order to determine how much water is required for the AALS maintaining under different temperature conditions, sensitivity analysis has been applied. Basically, sensitivity analysis is used to identify how “sensitive” a model is to changes in the value of the parameters. In our case, we executed the model ten times changing only the value of water discharges and attempted to analyze how much discharges is needed using the three temperature conditions listed above.
   

Figure 31, Figure 32, and Figure 33 demonstrate the results of the sensitivity analysis used for evaluation of the water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining over the next 30 years in the context of various values of annual average temperature.

²² See in section 6.2.1

Figure 31. a) Amount of water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining at the temperature of 14,8ºC



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Figure 32. b) Amount of water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining at the temperature of 15,8ºC

Figure 33. c) Amount of water discharges needed for the AALS maintaining at the temperature of 16,8ºC

Analyzing the graphs provided above, the following conclusions have been obtained:

• 
  In order to maintain the Aydar-Arnasay lakes volume at the annual average temperature of 14,8ºC over the next 30 years, there is a need to discharge the amount of water corresponding to the value of yellow line 6 demonstrated in Figure 31. This value amounts to 2,11 km³;
  
• 
  In order to maintain the Aydar-Arnasay lakes volume at the annual average temperature of 15,8ºC over the next 30 years, there is a need to discharge the amount of water corresponding to the value of light-green line 7 demonstrated in Figure 32. This value amounts to 2,33 km³;
  
• 
  
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  In order to maintain the Aydar-Arnasay lakes volume at the annual average temperature of 16,8ºC over the next 30 years, there is a need to discharge the amount of water corresponding to the value of light-blue line 8 demonstrated on Figure 32. This value amounts to 2,56 km³;
  

To sum up, the results received will be used for the development of the quantitative description of the water management scenarios provided below and subsequently to put into the model.

2.