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Model simulation: Mode II “Scenario analysis”

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A series of experiments was developed and conducted in order to test alternative water management scenarios of the AALS future development. In total, four water management scenarios described in the previous chapters were tested using the Chardara – Aydar-Arnasay model. Model interface with numerous control parameters such as rate of temperature increase, drought frequency, and cooperation ration allowed testing several alternative situations within each scenario. The model was executed ten times for each scenario in order to analyze a range of the volume change. Results of the simulation for each water management scenario are presented below.

1. Scenario I “Ready for challenge”

In the simulation process, two alternative sub-scenarios in terms of regional cooperation have been identified. The sub-scenario Ia implies full cooperation between republics²³. Figure 35 demonstrates the results of the model simulation for the first sub-scenario.

²³ See scenario analysis in section 6.2.1.4

Figure 35. The AALS volume change in sub-scenario Ia (Scenario I “Ready for Challenge”)

As it follows from the graph, the AALS volume will gradually increase within the next 30 years. According to the model simulation, the volume will change in the following ranges:

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  from 44,2 to 48,3 km³ in 2020;
  
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  from 46,7 to 50,2 km³ in 2030;
  
• 
  from 48,7 to 52,7 km³ in 2040.
  

The total AALS volume increase will amount to about 4-6 m over the next thirty years compared to the current volume.

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The sub-scenario Ib²⁴ implies that water discharges will be shared between republics in accordance with republics’ needs. Figure 36 shows the results of the model simulation for the sub-scenario Ib.

²⁴ See the description of the Scenario Ib in section 6.4.2.1

Figure 36. The AALS volume change in sub-scenario Ib (Scenario I “Ready for Challenge”)

As can be seen from the graph, there are three main trends of the AALS volume change.

• 
  Trend 1 demonstrates the change of the AALS volume in future on the assumption that only 20% of water will be discharged to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and the remaining 80% to the downstream of the Syrdarya river. According to the model simulation, in case of trend 1 the AALS volume will decrease during next thirty years. In particular, the volume will range from 29,0 to 32,6 km³ in 2020, 18,9-22,4 km³ in 2030, and 9,3-14,3 km³ in 2040. The total volume will decrease by 27-30 km³ compared to the current volume;
  
• 
  
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  Trend 2 demonstrates the change of the AALS volume in future on the assumption that only 30% of water will be discharged to the Aydar-Arnasay lakes and the remaining 70% to the downstream of the Syrdarya river. According to the model simulation, in case of trend 2 the AALS volume will also decrease during next thirty years. However, the decrease will be slower in comparison with the trend 1. Specifically, the volume will range from 34,1 to 36,4 km³ in 2020, 27,5-30,5 km³ in 2030, and 23,2-27,06 km³ in 2040. The total volume will decrease by 21-25 km³ regarding the current volume;
  
• 
  Trend 3 demonstrates the change of the AALS volume in future on the assumption that water discharges will be divided between the Aydar-Arnasay lakes the downstream areas of the Syrdarya river equally. According to the model simulation,
  

the AALS volume will remain at the same level during 2010-2040 compared to the present volume. The total volume will range from 42,01to 45,67 km³.

2.