Frameworks for Environmental Assessment and Indicators at the eea

The Science–Policy Bridge: A Framework for Evaluating
Complex Scientific Evidence on Environmental Factors in
Disease Causation
In preparing a follow-up report to Late Lessons from Early Warnings: The Precautionary
Principle 1896–2000 (EEA 2001), the EEA has been developing a framework to assist
with the practical application of the precautionary principle via common approaches to
evidence evaluation at the science–policy interface. It has also been developing a simple
analytical model for approaching such complex, multicausal phenomena as endocrine-
disrupting substances, mediated diseases, and childhood asthma (EEA 2003).
The draft EEA framework in Table 9.3 uses just three strengths of evidence: weak
(10–33% estimated probability), moderate (33–66% estimated probability), and
strong (more than 66% probability), which are the same as the “low likelihood,”
“medium likelihood,” and “likely” categories of the IPCC (Table 9.4). The draft
framework also invites users to judge whether the overall evidence has become
stronger or weaker over a relevant period of time between major evaluations of the evi-
dence or since, say, 1992.
Preventive and precautionary actions must usually be taken on the basis of much less
than scientific certainty and well before an understanding of the mechanisms of action
9. Policy Integration, Sustainable Development
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157
Figure 9.6.
Scope of GEAR-SD (courtesy of the EEA).
Scope 67 FM, TEXT.qxd 3/28/07 2:44 PM Page 157

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T
able 9.3. An EEA framewor
k for ev
aluating complex and conflicting scientific evidence on envir
onment 
and disease.
Statement of H
ypothesis*
E
valuation F
actor